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Devastating Impact of Climate Change Threatening Egyptian Outputs: An Empirical Analysis Since 1900s

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Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability

Part of the book series: Advances in Science, Technology & Innovation ((ASTI))

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Abstract

The disturbing change in climate and its associated risks are putting dire pressure on the ability of humanity to feed itself. Empirical findings are forecasting that the window to address this threat is closing rapidly. This could be contributed to the unprecedented increasing rates of environmental deterioration and resources exploitation. Since the eighteenth century, human activities seen in industrial processes, burning of fossil fuels, and deforestation have released huge amounts of gases into the atmosphere. Leading to the phenomena of global warming, the increase in temperature is affecting the entire globe, and Egypt is not any different. Recent evidence suggests that nation’s 3.1 million hectares of agricultural land are at high risk of complete destruction in the foreseeable future. Starting 2009, the remarkable rise in desertification problem is placing a great burden on Egypt’s progress, with an estimated annual loss of 11,736 hectares of agricultural land. Until the 1960s, agriculture was Egypt leading economic sector with export value constituting around 87% of total goods. Nowadays, agriculture is still one of the main contributors to the GDP with around 14.5% of its total value and provides 28% of all jobs in the market, and 45% of women employment. This paper has two folds, firstly, it quantifies the long-term impact of increasing temperature on production activities and secondly, determine the exact threshold point after which production activities are threatened by temperature change in Egypt over a time period of almost 100 years using a threshold model. The results reveal interesting and unique relationship. If the temperature is between 22.4 and 22.9, GDP will have a positive trend, while if the temperature is below 22.8 Co, GDP will follow a negative trend. The negative trend is bigger with a higher temperature than with the lower one. What we learn from this threshold regression is that the economy needs an “optimal” temperature.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. German University in Cairo, Cairo, Egypt

    Dina M. Yousri

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  1. Dina M. Yousri
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Correspondence to Dina M. Yousri .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China

    Bao-Jie He

  2. School of Built Environment, University of New South Wales Sydney, Kensington, NSW, Australia

    Deo Prasad

  3. School of Built Environment, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia

    Gloria Pignatta

  4. System Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Kizugawa, Kyoto, Japan

    Joni Jupesta

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Yousri, D.M. (2022). Devastating Impact of Climate Change Threatening Egyptian Outputs: An Empirical Analysis Since 1900s. In: He, BJ., Prasad, D., Pignatta, G., Jupesta, J. (eds) Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability. Advances in Science, Technology & Innovation. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12015-2_18

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