Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves and Maps for Italian Slopes

Abstract

The seismic performance of an earth slope is commonly evaluated through the permanent displacements developed at the end of an earthquake. In this paper a probabilistic approach is adopted to assess the displacement of the slope for a given hazard level using an updated database of ground motions recorded during the earthquakes occurred in Italy. The results are presented in terms of hazard curves, showing the annual rate of exceedance of permanent slope displacement evaluated using ground motion data provided by a standard probabilistic hazard analysis and a series of semi-empirical relationships linking the permanent displacements of slopes to one or more ground motion parameters. The probabilistic approach permits to take into account synthetically the characteristics of the slope through the yield seismic coefficient, the aleatory variability of the ground motions and the different subsoil classes of the recording stations. Finally, the procedure has been extended on a regional scale to produce seismic landslide hazard maps for Irpinia, one of the most seismically active regions in Italy. Seismic landslide hazard maps are very attractive for practitioners and government agencies for a screening level analysis to identify, monitor and minimise damages in zones that are potentially susceptible to earthquake-induced slope instability.