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Artificial Intelligence in Conventional Arms Control and Military Confidence-Building

Opportunities, Challenges and Risks

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Armament, Arms Control and Artificial Intelligence

Part of the book series: Studies in Peace and Security ((SPS))

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Abstract

This chapter explores the opportunities, challenges and risks of using artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in the context of conventional arms control and military confidence-building. First, it briefly reflects upon different theoretical approaches and perspectives on arms control and military confidence-building. Second, it provides a brief overview of existing treaties, regimes and measures in Europe. Finally, the chapter concludes with a few reflections and food for thought on the opportunities, challenges and risks inherent in AI technologies for: (1) the balance of power; (2) analysis, planning, coordination, and evaluation; (3) verification and (4) trust-building in conventional arms control and military confidence-building measures in Europe. In sum, the chapter argues that the best prospects for AI technologies in conventional arms control and military confidence-building are in the augmentation of human intelligence, while the biggest risks lie in a lack of human oversight and an uncritical reliance on AI systems, as well as in the reduction of the trust-building effects of direct military-to-military contacts.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    This does not refer to the numerous discussions and debates presented in this book, but to debates specifically focusing on conventional arms control and military confidence-building in the context of the OSCE.

  2. 2.

    This can, for instance, be seen in the publicly available Annual Exchange of Military Information (AEMI) of the Finnish armed forces (see The Finnish Defence Forces, 2019).

  3. 3.

    Some countries are already using comparable systems and software solutions.

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Acknowledgments

I would particularly like to thank a very good friend of mine for his extremely useful input, feedback and advice regarding the technical aspects, elements and status quo of AI technologies. Thank you very much!

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. UiT - The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway

    Benjamin Schaller

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  1. Benjamin Schaller
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Correspondence to Benjamin Schaller .

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  1. PEASEC, TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany

    Thomas Reinhold

  2. Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Hessen, Germany

    Niklas Schörnig

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Schaller, B. (2022). Artificial Intelligence in Conventional Arms Control and Military Confidence-Building. In: Reinhold, T., Schörnig, N. (eds) Armament, Arms Control and Artificial Intelligence. Studies in Peace and Security. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-11043-6_10

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