Abstract
We use representative labor force data to conduct a descriptive, empirical analysis of labor market outcomes over time on both the extensive and intensive margins to obtain a nuanced overview of how the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown affected the South African labor market. We show that aggregate employment reduced by 2.2 million (14%) in the second quarter of 2020, however, the distribution of job loss was heavily skewed toward vulnerable groups including the youth, those with lower levels of formal education, lower-skilled workers, union non-members, and informal sector workers. We also document notable changes in the distribution of working hours and a substantial increase in economic inactivity. This latter observation is characteristic of lockdown policy which induced an inability for both job-losers and jobseekers to participate in the labor market.
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(Source QLFS 2008Q1 to 2020Q2 [StatsSA]. Authors’ own calculations) (Notes [1] All estimates weighted using relevant sampling weights. [2] Official (narrow) definition of unemployment used throughout)
Notes
- 1.
Additionally, among those who did have contact numbers, some contact numbers were found to be invalid or were not answered during data collection, and some households indicated that they were no longer residing at the dwelling units they had occupied during 2020Q1. All of these were regarded as non-contact and were adjusted for during the weighting processes.
- 2.
This latter group are not classified among the discouraged unemployed because, when asked why they were not looking for work, individuals in this group responded with reasons “Other” than discouragement. This reason can be attributed to the national lockdown policy, which restricted any activity deemed “non-essential” outside the home.
- 3.
We use the official (searching) definition of unemployment here.
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Kohler, T., Bhorat, H., Hill, R., Stanwix, B. (2022). The Short-Term Labor Market Effects of South Africa’s National COVID-19 Lockdown. In: Qobo, M., Soko, M., Xenia Ngwenya, N. (eds) The Future of the South African Political Economy Post-COVID 19. International Political Economy Series. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-10576-0_6
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