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Cereal Demand and Production Projections for 2050: Opportunities for Achieving Food Self-Sufficiency in Nepal

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Agriculture, Natural Resources and Food Security

Part of the book series: Sustainable Development Goals Series ((SDGS))

Abstract

Cereals are a major source of food security, income, livelihood, and employment in Nepal. However, there is a lack of time-series data for cereals to have a full understanding of the level of production, productivity, and self-reliance in food production in the country. The objectives of this chapter are to assess patterns and dynamics of cereal production, productivity, and import growth, and analyze food demand and self-sufficiency in Nepal. The major data sources for the chapter came from the national statistics, published and unpublished research papers, and policy documents. We used a compound growth rate estimation, coefficient of variation, and instability index techniques for analyzing dynamics and variability of the growth of food production and productivity over time. In addition, production and demand growth of cereals and self-sufficiency ratios were estimated for the next three decades until 2050 using different scenarios of production, population, demand growth, and the effect of climate change. Autoregressive regression model was used to analyze the relation between domestic production and income growth with import. The findings revealed that present production and productivity of cereals are low to meet current and future food demands of increasing population. Moreover, limited marketable surplus available at household level is the fundamental reason for steady increase in food imports. As a result, the country will continue to import a large quantity of cereals, particularly rice and maize in the future too. The country cannot achieve cereal self-sufficiency until 2030 under current growth rate of production, population, and negative effects of climate change. We suggest that government increase investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) to generate new and higher-level technologies and production practices for sustainable intensification of cereals with adequate policy support and services for ensuring national and household-level food and nutrition security to meet SDGs 1 and 2 by 2030.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Production program in PMAMP is organized in pockets (50 ha), blocks (100 ha), zones (500 ha) and super zones (1000 ha) particularly in favourable areas in the country with a total coverage of rice in the project (31 districts) is only about 50,000 ha in total (https://pmamp.gov.np/) with very high operational cost per unit of area.

  2. 2.

    Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is the annualized average rate of growth (constant growth) over multiple years assuming growth takes place at an exponentially compound rate. This is commonly used in economics research and analysis.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Kathmandu, Nepal

    Devendra Gauchan

  2. National Agricultural Policy Research Centre, NARC, Khumaltar, Lalitpur, Nepal

    Krishna P. Timsina

  3. Monitoring and Evaluation Division, Nepal Agricultural Research Council, Kathmandu, Nepal

    Samaya Gairhe

  4. Global Evergreening Alliance, Burwood East, Melbourne, Victoria, 3151, Australia

    Jagadish Timsina

  5. Institute for Study and Development Worldwide, Sydney, Australia

    Jagadish Timsina

  6. International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Nepal Office, Khumaltar, Lalitpur, Nepal

    Krishna D. Joshi

Authors
  1. Devendra Gauchan
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  2. Krishna P. Timsina
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  3. Samaya Gairhe
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  4. Jagadish Timsina
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  5. Krishna D. Joshi
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Correspondence to Devendra Gauchan .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Inst for Study and Dvlpmt Worldwide, Global Evergreening Alliance, Homebush West, NSW, Australia

    Jagadish Timsina

  2. Ctr for Sust Agricultural Systems, ILSE, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, Australia

    Tek N. Maraseni

  3. Bioversity International, Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal

    Devendra Gauchan

  4. Adjunct Faculty, Curtin University, Eden Hill, WA, Australia

    Jagannath Adhikari

  5. University of Canberra, North Strathfield, Sydney, NSW, Australia

    Hemant Ojha

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Gauchan, D., Timsina, K.P., Gairhe, S., Timsina, J., Joshi, K.D. (2022). Cereal Demand and Production Projections for 2050: Opportunities for Achieving Food Self-Sufficiency in Nepal. In: Timsina, J., Maraseni, T.N., Gauchan, D., Adhikari, J., Ojha, H. (eds) Agriculture, Natural Resources and Food Security. Sustainable Development Goals Series. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-09555-9_2

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