Abstract
Scenarios are descriptions of alternative development paths of an issue and help to explore what could happen and how to prepare for various contingencies. Scenarios explore the space of uncertainties in defining possible futures whilst forecasts tend to be used more for anticipating timing in relation to specific stimuli such as technology. Two categories, or lenses, of scenarios are introduced—the reactive—where alternative futures are explored based on a major disruptive event which has already happened, and the exploratory—“what-if” events which contain latent characteristics or trends over various future time horizons and can be influenced by weak signals. Under the broader term of strategic options analysis two methods supporting decision-making are reviewed—morphological analysis and morphological distance analysis. The chapter also shows how preferable and undesirable scenarios can be identified and allocated to the uncertainty profile matrix including doomsday scenarios which can be represented as catastrophic or existential risks.
When good or bad come, why give thanks, and why complain? Since what is written won’t remain or stay like this.
Hafez—Persian poet
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Notes
- 1.
On Strategy Foresight Ltd.’s website a number of video presentations are available and involve a number of examples as to its operational working.
- 2.
Wikipedia definition.
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Garvey, B. (2022). Scenarios: What Are They, Why Are They Useful and How Can We Best Use Them?. In: Uncertainty Deconstructed. Science, Technology and Innovation Studies. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08007-4_7
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