The Evidence Base

Abstract

The chapter explores how decision-makers and analysts need to validate and be aware of the veracity of the data that they are confronted with, both qualitative and quantitative. History examines the impact of past events. Yet, proximity to an event having occurred in relation to a contemporary standpoint is no guarantee that an objective interpretation can be made. It can be argued that the more recent the event, the less likely researchers will have access to all the “facts”. The issue of data evaluation is illustrated via a template indicating how we understand and action data. The concept of “dark data” in its various forms is discussed as a precursor to a section on the veracity of information and how delinquent forms such as misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation increasingly attack the ability to form objective judgements. Finally, another template is presented highlighting the different forms of bad actors to be aware of.

If everybody always lies to you, the consequence is not that you believe the lies, but rather that nobody believes anything any longer … . And a people that nobody can believe anything cannot make up its mind. It is deprived not only of its capacity to act but also its capacity to think and to judge. And with such people you can then do what you please.

Hannah Arendt