Problem Status

Abstract

A major problem for researchers, analysts, forecasters and, indeed, investors is to identify how, when, and where new events and trends will play out. In essence most problems have multiple numbers of variables, and where each variable has a number of conditions or dimensions. So, how can we address the outcomes of futures governed by such complexity? This chapter introduces the notion that problems come in various shapes and sizes which can be best addressed via a set of techniques known as Problem Structuring Methods (PSMs). Once the problem characteristic has been identified (is it a puzzle, a causal problem, or a wicked problem?), then the problem can be positioned within the Uncertainty matrix so the most appropriate PSM can be applied. This positioning also allows the analyst to explore issues such as decision stakes and systems uncertainties. The chapter ends by introducing Rosenhead’s Robustness Analysis method as an appropriate MTT for addressing the early stages of problem identification.

“Earlier, I didn’t understand why I got no answer to my question, today I don’t understand how I presumed to ask a question. But then I didn’t presume, I only asked” Franz Kafka—the Zurau Aphorisms.