Abstract
This chapter provides a better understanding of the difference between risk and uncertainty along with the impact of complexity and interconnectivity. Uncertainty and Risk lie along a spectrum, which includes, of course, Certainty. It is here where the core rationale of the book is presented as a template called the “Uncertainty Profile”. The template shows how four main quadrants of Uncertainty, derived from a 2×2 matrix based on the “known” and “unknown”, have been synthesised from a number of different interpretations of uncertainty. This profile acts as a leitmotif throughout the book leading to the argument that events need to be treated as “known-unknowns” being essentially identifiable in one form or another. Over deployment of the term “unknown-unknown”, largely due to behavioural responses, encourages poor decision-making based on a lack of foresight. The chapter consists of three main components: Scoping the Risk Spectrum, the core “Uncertainty Profile”, and Methods, Tools, and Techniques (MTTs) relevant to the topic.
“The future is uncertain …but this uncertainty is at the very heart of human creativity”
Ilya Prigogine
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
- 1.
This title has used that of an amusing compilation of the sayings of Donald Rumsfeld entitle “Pieces of Intelligence” by Hart Seely, The Free Press 2003.
- 2.
Remember the first Gulf War in modern times was the Iran-Iraq war of 1980 to 1988
- 3.
This statement itself a version of a technique called the Johari window—developed by psychologists Joseph Luft and Harrington Ingham back in 1955.
- 4.
See the appended note at the end of this section referring to Animal Metaphors.
- 5.
Kahn H in 1963 who wrote his famous study on “Thinking about the Unthinkable” (1963), and his earlier 1960 book entitled “on Thermonuclear War” which articulated the need to confront the impact of cataclysmic events which could theoretically happen.
- 6.
The term is used as an example of lack of commercial foresight. Kodak did much of the early work in digital photography but failed to see its significance as it sought to protect its core product base which was film-based. Such lack of vision caused its demise.
- 7.
Much of the description of Cynefin used here has been adapted from a useful summary written by Simon French in “Decision Support Tools for Complex Decisions Under Uncertainty” edited by Simon French: published by the Analysis Under Uncertainty for Decision Makers Network (AU4DM). 2018.
References
Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. L. (Jan–Feb 2014). What VUCA really means for you. Harvard Business Review Magazine.
Bennis, W., & Nanus, B. (1985). Leaders: The strategies for taking charge. Harper & Row.
Bowman, C. (1995). Strategy workshops and top-team commitment to strategic change. Journal of Managerial Psychology, 10(8), 4–12.
Camillus, J. (May 2008). Strategy as a wicked problem. Harvard Business Review.
Courtney, H. G., Kirkland, J., & Viguerie, S. P. (2000). Four levels of uncertainty (Strategy under Uncertainty). McKinsey & Company.
EIU. (2011). The complexity challenge – How businesses are bearing up, the economist intelligence unit.
French, Simon, (Ed.). (2018). Decision support tools for complex decisions under uncertainty: published by the Analysis Under Uncertainty for Decision Makers Network (AU4DM).
Friedman, T. (2014). Stampeding black elephants. New York Times, November 22nd 2014.
Goldstein, Michael. (2011). Uncertainty analysis for computer models. Durham University.
Gowing, N., & Langdon, C. (2017). Thinking the Unthinkable – A new imperative for leadership in the digital age: An interim report – Published by CIMA London.
Ho, P. (2017). Hunting black swans & taming black elephants: Governance in a complex world. IPS-Nathan Lectures, Singapore, April 7 2017.
Hubbard, D. W. (2007). How to measure anything – Finding the value of intangibles in business. Wiley.
King, M., & Kay, J. (2020). Radical uncertainty – Decision-making for an unknowable future. The Bridge Press.
Knight, Frank. (1921). Risk, uncertainty, and profit.
Kuosa, T. (2012). The evolution of strategic foresight. Gower.
Marchau, V., Walker, W., Bloeman, P., & Popper, S. (Eds.). (2019). Decision making under deep uncertainty – From theory to practice. Springer.
Marczyk, J. (2009). A new theory of risk and rating. Editrice UNI Service.
Mitchell, M. (2009). Complexity: A guided tour. Oxford University Press.
Mohammad, A., & Sykes, R. (2012). Black swans turn grey – The transformation of risk. PWC.
Rajan, R. (2005). Address to Conference at Jackson Hole Wyoming.
Ritchey, T. (2011). Wicked problems and social messes: Decision support modelling with morphological analysis. Springer.
Roubini, N. (2010). Crisis economics. Penguin Group.
Rumsfeld, D., February 12th 2002. Department of defense news briefing.
Schwartx, P. (2003). Inevitable surprises – Thinking ahead in a time of turbulence. Gotham Books (Penguin Group – USA).
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan. Allen Lane.
Thom, R. (1972). Structural stability and morphogenesis. W.A. Benjamin.
Uncertainty Toolkit for Analysts in Government. (2016). https://analystsuncertaintytoolkit.github.io/UncertaintyWeb/index.html
Wucker, M. (2016). The Grey Rhino. St Martin’s Press.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Garvey, B. (2022). Locating Uncertainty Along the Risk Spectrum. In: Uncertainty Deconstructed. Science, Technology and Innovation Studies. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08007-4_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08007-4_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-08006-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-08007-4
eBook Packages: Business and ManagementBusiness and Management (R0)