Setting the Scene and Introduction

Abstract

There is little certainty in our world. If you ask ten experts, you can expect ten distinct responses. Nevertheless, we actually have very powerful tools for modelling uncertainty, helping to ensure that the decisions we make today do not come back to haunt us. In this chapter, we look at how to broaden our understanding of uncertainty and look at those major components which impact it. Much of the motivation for addressing the subject of uncertainty comes from identifying situations where people are involved and we will therefore also introduce the important subjects of scenarios and behavioural aspects. By way of introduction a model consisting of three criteria, Structural Components, Scenarios, and Behavioural Factors, is presented with interconnecting axes (with Methods, Tools, and Techniques—MTTs deployed within each of the criteria). These criteria form the basis of Theoretical Underpinnings in Part A. Part B looks at translating theory into practice via scenarios and case studies.

“Unfortunately, the predilection of not wanting to think about the unthinkable will not equip us to prepare for inevitable surprises. For individuals, such a mind-set may be forgivable—for sophisticated government and supporting institutions, it is unforgivable. In this current climate, we have to strive to turn the Unthinkable—good and bad—into the Thinkable. There is no better time for all us to change our mind sets” Author’s observation 2021.