Abstract
Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDT), such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Blockchain, Quantum computing, biotechnology, nanotechnology and a broad selections of aerospace technologies, have attracted increasing attention in security and defence in recent years. What lies behind this drive towards harnessing such innovations is the hope that EDTs would solve many of today's most wicked security problems and provide an edge over potential adversaries in conflict. As such, it is often expected that EDTs could revolutionise fields of warfare, or even the concept or warfare as we know it, provide new and novel solutions to countering threats to critical infrastructures and improve cyber security of vital services. The other side of the coin, however, is the deeply felt fear of being overcome by adversaries in possession of superior technological capabilities. Consequently, Russia’s development of supersonic technologies and China’s drive towards dominating AI and drone technologies are of increasing concern. As such the emergence of EDTs are sometimes seen as threats on their own merit. However, and perhaps more importantly, disruptive innovation is often somewhat elusive in terms of what one can expect in practice. There are no guarantees towards what will emerge, if anything. Sometimes the end result is a definite dud and the investment does not return positive results. For every successful disruptive technology there are thousands that fail totally. Even when they work out, the outcome might not be the one broadly expected. This chapter thus seeks to explore how we can recognise EDTs with potential for security and defence, assess that potential with improved certainty, assess and mitigate the uncertainty associated with such technologies and investigate pathways toward a trade-offs strategy in order to achieve a balance between the risks and opportunities.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsNotes
- 1.
- 2.
See for instance: Allam [2].
- 3.
See for instance: Forbes [3].
- 4.
PWC [4].
- 5.
- 6.
See for instance: Bidwell and MacDonald [7].
- 7.
See: Starlink webpage: A network of satellite on low orbit replacing terrestrial networks could become a disruptive innovation. For instance, Starlink by Space-X aims at providing low-latency coverage to areas that terrestrial systems do not cover, or where coverage is patchy, at a lower cost.
- 8.
See: Iridium webpage: https://www.iridium.com/network/.
- 9.
NASA [8].
- 10.
Nextgov [9].
- 11.
White [10].
- 12.
Manning [11].
- 13.
National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence [12].
- 14.
CNBC [13].
- 15.
See: Defence Science and Technology Group website - https://www.dst.defence.gov.au.
- 16.
Defence Science and Technology Group [14].
- 17.
- 18.
NATO [15].
- 19.
NATO [16].
- 20.
Stoltenberg [17].
- 21.
Csernatoni [18].
- 22.
Ibid.
- 23.
European Parliament [19].
- 24.
European Parliament [19]: 27–8.
- 25.
European Parliament [19]: 13.
- 26.
European Defence Agency [20].
- 27.
Ibid.
- 28.
NATO Communications and Information Agency [21].
- 29.
See for instance: Australian Government [22].
- 30.
Nikkei,’China’s progress in advanced semiconductor technology slows’, 9 May 2021, https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/China-s-progress-in-advanced-semiconductor-technology-slows.
- 31.
Fjäder et al. [23].
- 32.
Yan Xuetong, “Becoming strong: The New Chinese Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2021, p.46.
- 33.
International Risk Governance Council (IRGC), https://irgc.org/..
- 34.
Independent [24].
- 35.
Alfonseca et. al. [25].
- 36.
- 37.
LiveScience [28].
- 38.
Ridley [29].
- 39.
IRQC Risk Governance Framework, https://www.epsfl.ch/research/domains/irgc/concepts-and-frameworks/risk-governance-framework/.
- 40.
United Nations—Office of Disarmament Affairs [30].
- 41.
European Parliament: 29.
- 42.
Manning [11]:18.
- 43.
European Commission [31].
References
Christensen CM (1997) The innovator’s dilemma. Harvard Business School Press, Boston M.A
Allam Z (2020) The rise of machine intelligence in the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on health policy. US national library of medicine, surveying the Covid-19 pandemic and its implications, pp 89–96. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7378493/
Forbes (2021) Artificial intelligence and precision farming: the dawn of the next agricultural revolution. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2021/01/07/artificial-intelligence-and-precision-farming-the-dawn-of-the-next-agricultural-revolution/?sh=c227b4a1dbe2
PWC (2017) Seizing the price: what’s the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise? https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/analytics/assets/pwc-ai-analysis-sizing-the-prize-report.pdf
Gartner. Gartner hype cycle. https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle
Gartner. Understanding Gartner hype cycles. https://www.gartner.com/en/documents/3887767
Bidwell CA, MacDonald BW (2018) Emerging disruptive technologies and their potential threat to strategic stability and national security. Special Report Federation of American Scientists (FAS). https://uploads.fas.org/media/FAS-Emerging-Technologies-Report.pdf
NASA. Technology readiness level. https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/heo/scan/engineering/technology/technology_readiness_level
Nextgov (2020) White House strategy names 20 emerging technologies crucial to national security. https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2020/10/white-house-strategy-names-20-emerging-technologies-crucial-national-security/169293/
White House (2020) National strategy for critical and emerging technologies. https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/National-Strategy-for-CET.pdf
Manning R (2020) Emerging technologies: new challenges to global stability. Issues Brief, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, The Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Emerging-Technologies-New-Challenges-To-Global-Stability-May-2020.pdf
National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (2021) Final Report. https://www.nscai.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Full-Report-Digital-1.pdf
CNBC (2021) U.S. is ‘not prepared to defend or compete in the AI era’, says expert group chaired by Eric Schmidt. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/02/us-not-prepared-to-defend-or-compete-in-ai-era-says-eric-schmidt-group.html
Defence Science and Technology Group (2021) Defence science and technology strategy 2030. Australian Government. https://www.dst.defence.gov.au/strategy/defence-science-and-technology-strategy-2030
NATO (2021a) Emerging and disruptive technologies. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_187634.htm?selectedLocale=en
NATO (2021b) Summary of the NATO artificial intelligence strategy. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_187617.htm
Stoltenberg J (2021) Speech by NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg at the German Atlantic association ‘NATO Talk’ conference 2021, 23 November, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_188772.htm?selectedLocale=en
Csernatoni R (2021) The EU’s rise as a defense technological power: From strategic autonomy to technological sovereignty. Carnegie Europe. https://carnegieeurope.eu/2021/08/12/eu-s-rise-as-defense-technological-power-from-strategic-autonomy-to-technological-sovereignty-pub-85134
European Parliament (2021) Innovative technologies shaping the 2040 battlefield. Study - Panel of Future Science and Technology, European Parliamentary Research Services- Scientific Foresight Unit. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2021/690038/EPRS_STU(2021)690038_EN.pdf
European Defence Agency (2021) High-level conference discussed impact of emerging disruptive technologies on defence. https://eda.europa.eu/news-and-events/news/2021/04/20/high-level-conference-discussed-impact-of-emerging-disruptive-technologies-on-defence
NATO Communications and Information Agency (2021) NATO tech agency explores the potential of 5G for the Alliance. https://www.ncia.nato.int/about-us/newsroom/nato-tech-agency-explores-the-potential-of-5g-for-the-alliance.html
Australian Government (2021) Quad critical and emerging technologies working group. 16 April https://www.internationalcybertech.gov.au/node/137
Fjäder C, Helvig N, Wigell M (2021) Recognizing ‘geoeconomic risk’: Rethinking corporate risk management for the era of great-power competition. In: FIIA briefing paper 314, the Finnish institute of international affairs (FIIA). https://www.fiia.fi/en/publication/recognizing-geoeconomic-risk
Independent (2014) Stephen Hawking: ‘Transcendence looks at the implications of artificial intelligence—but are we taking AI seriously enough? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-transcendence-looks-implications-artificial-intelligence-are-we-taking-ai-seriously-enough-9313474.html
Alfonseca M et al. (2021) Superintelligence cannot be contained: Lessons from computational theory. J Artif Intell Res 70: 65–76. https://jair.org/index.php/jair/article/view/12202/26642
Najibi A (2020) Racial discrimination in face recognition technology. Blog—Science Policy, Harvard University. https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2020/racial-discrimination-in-face-recognition-technology/
Garvie C, Frankle J (2016) Facial-recognition software might have a racial bias problem. The Atlantic. https://apexart.org/images/breiner/articles/FacialRecognitionSoftwareMight.pdf
LiveScience (2014) Stephen Hawking says ‘God Particle’ could wipe out the universe. https://www.livescience.com/47737-stephen-hawking-higgs-boson-universe-doomsday.html
Ridley M (2017) Amara’s Law. https://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/amaras-law/
United Nations—Office of Disarmament Affairs (2021) Background on LAWS in the CCW. https://www.un.org/disarmament/the-convention-on-certain-conventional-weapons/background-on-laws-in-the-ccw/
European Commission (2021) Dual use controls. https://ec.europa.eu/trade/import-and-export-rules/export-from-eu/dual-use-controls/
Bellasio J, Slapakova L, Huxtable L, Black J, Ogden T, Dawaele L (2021) Innovative technologies shaping the 2040 battlefield. RAND Europe/European Parliament Think Tank. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2021/690038/EPRS_STU(2021)690038_EN.pdf
Bower J, Christensen C (1995) Disruptive technologies: catching the wave. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/1995/01/disruptive-technologies-catching-the-wave
Johnston T, Smith TD, Irwin JL (2018) Additive manufacturing in 2040: Powerful enabler, disruptive threat. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE200/PE283/RAND_PE283.pdf
NATO (2020) Science & Technology Trends 2020–2040, NATO Science and Technology Organization. https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/4/pdf/190422-ST_Tech_Trends_Report_2020-2040.pdf
RAND (2018) Four ways 3D printing may threaten security. https://www.rand.org/blog/articles/2018/05/four-ways-3d-printing-may-threaten-security.html
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Fjäder, C. (2022). Emerging and Disruptive Technologies and Security: Considering Trade-Offs Between New Opportunities and Emerging Risks. In: Adlakha-Hutcheon, G., Masys, A. (eds) Disruption, Ideation and Innovation for Defence and Security. Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-06636-8_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-06636-8_4
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-06635-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-06636-8
eBook Packages: Political Science and International StudiesPolitical Science and International Studies (R0)