Analytic Methods

Abstract

In addition to critical thinking, which should be employed in any type of analysis, various analysis methods are used by analysts (Jones, 1998). Humans too often let emotions affect their rationality when thinking through problems or questions. Often we are content to settle for the first solution found. Other times, one element of a solution is acceptable so the fact that the rest of the solution is not suitable is ignored. In addition to critical thinking, a number of specific techniques can be used to structure our thinking and ensure that a number of objectives are considered. One of the most common techniques is Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) (Heuer, 1999). Using this method, the analyst considers a set of hypotheses, and then looks for evidence that supports or refutes the different hypotheses. Different mathematical methods can be used to score the evidence and determine which hypothesis has the strongest supporting evidence. Other techniques such as the Devil’s Advocate, the use of timelines, and decision/event trees are discussed in Jones (1998).