Demographic Features in West Asian and North African Countries: The Impact of Population Policies

Abstract

The West Asia and North Africa region consists of 20 countries. The region had a population of 181 million in 1970 and reached 582.3 million people in 2020, with an annual growth rate of 2.4% – one of the highest in the world. In 1970, about 45% of the population lived in six North African countries, with a slower annual growth rate of 2.2% during the past 50 years, whereas the 14 countries in West Asia (about 55% of the population) had an annual growth rate of 2.5%. Another feature of the West Asian countries is the rapid population growth in six Gulf countries, where a substantial percentage of the population consists of expatriates who have immigrated, albeit temporarily. With the exception of Lebanon and Turkey, the total fertility rate (TFR) in the region during 1970–1975 ranged between 6.2 and 8.5 children per woman. However, a rapid fertility decline was reported in 10 countries by 1995–2000 – between 2.6 and 3.0 children per woman. A further decline of the TFR occurred in 2015–2020, reaching 2.1 children per woman or lower in six countries (all in West Asia) and between 2.2 and 2.4 children per woman in other 5 countries. However, in four countries (two in each sub-region), the TFR is substantially higher – between 3.7 and 4.4 children per woman. There has been a rapid decline in infant mortality in all countries with the exception of Sudan and Yemen. Consequently, during the past 50 years, seven countries recorded gains of 23–26 years in life expectancy at birth, while seven countries recorded gains of 12–19 years. Due to past high fertility, most countries have a fairly young age structure. Four countries in particular (Iraq, Palestine, Yemen, and Sudan), have median ages of 20 years and over two-third of their population is below 30 years. In seven countries, between 50 and 60% of the population is below 30 years. An interesting phenomenon is a high concentration of the population in the working age group in the six Gulf countries where, due to labor migration, between 50 to 60% of the population is in the age group 30–64, leading to significantly high sex ratios. Although fertility has declined substantially in most countries, due to increases in contraceptive use and levels of education, only three countries (Iran, Tunisia, and Egypt) have made deliberate efforts to implement family planning programs. While Tunisia and Iran have been able to implement family planning programs successfully, the program in Egypt suffered with the accession of a military government.