Abstract
This article investigates how consumers’ perceptions and expectations about inflation evolved during the first twelve months after the pandemic broke out in Italy. The analysis is based on data from the European business and consumer qualitative surveys and exploits an innovative dynamic model for ordinal data based on a mixture distribution with time varying parameters.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Armantier, O., et al.: How economic crises affect inflation belief: evidence from Covid-19 pandemic. J. Econ. Behav. Organ. 189, 443–469 (2021)
Biancotti, C., Rosolia, A., Veronese, G., Kirchner, R., Mouriaux, F.: COVID-19 and Official Statistics: A Wakeup Call? Bank of Italy Occasional Paper, no. 605 (2021)
Binder, C.: Coronavirus fears and macroeconomic expectations. Rev. Econ. Stat. 102, 721–730 (2020)
Capecchi, S., Iannario, M.: Gini heterogeneity index for detecting uncertainty in ordinal data surveys. METRON 74, 223–232 (2016)
Cavallo, A.: Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets. NBER Working paper 27352 (2020)
Coleman, W., Nautz, D.: Inflation expectations, inflation target credibility and the COVID-19 pandemic: New evidence from Germany. Center for Financial Studies Working Paper 658 (2021)
Corduas, M.: A dynamic model for ordinal time series: an application to consumers’ perceptions of inflation. In: Balzano, S., Porzio, G.C., Salvatore, R., Vistocco, D., Vichi, M. (eds.) Statistical Learning and Modeling in Data Analysis, pp. 37–45. Springer, Cham (2019)
Cressie, N., Read, T.R.: Multinomial goodness-of-fit tests. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 46, 440–464 (1984)
Georganas, S., Healy, P.J., Li, N.: Frequency bias in consumers perceptions of inflation: an experimental study. Eur. Econ. Rev. 67, 144–158 (2014)
Gomes, S., Iskrev, N., Pires Ribeiro, P.: Euro area inflation expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Econ. Bull. Banco de Portugal (2021). https://www.bportugal.pt
Huber, O.W.: Frequency of price increases and perceived inflation: an experimental investigation. J. Econ. Psych. 32, 651–661 (2011)
Pardo, L.: Statistical Inference Based on Divergence Measures. Chapmann & Hall/CRC Press, Boca Raton (2006)
Piccolo, D.: On the moments of a mixture of uniform and shifted binomial random variables. Quad. Stat. 5, 85–104 (2003)
Piccolo, D., Simone, R.: The class of CUB models: statistical foundations, inferential issues and empirical evidence. Stat. Meth. Appl. 28, 389–435 (2019)
Ranyard, R., Del Missier, F., Bonini, N., Duxbury, D., Summers, B.: Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: a review and conceptual framework. J. Econ. Psychol. 29, 378–400 (2008)
van der Wielen, W., Barrios, S.: Economic sentiment during the COVID pandemic: evidence from search behaviour in the EU. J. Econ. Bus. 115 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2020.105970
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Corduas, M., Piccolo, D. (2022). Inflation Perceptions and Expectations During the Pandemic: A Model Based Approach. In: Corazza, M., Perna, C., Pizzi, C., Sibillo, M. (eds) Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance. MAF 2022. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-99638-3_29
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-99638-3_29
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-99637-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-99638-3
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)