Scopes 1, 2, and 3 Industry Emissions and Future Pathways

Abstract

The Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions analysed in the OECM are defined and are presented for the 12 sectors analysed: (1) energy, (2) power and gas utilities, (3) transport, (4) steel industry, (5) cement industry, (6) farming, (7) agriculture and forestry, (8) chemical industry, (9) aluminium industry, (10) construction and buildings, (11) water utilities, and (12) textiles and leather industry. The interconnections between all energy-related CO₂ emissions are summarized with a Sankey graph.

1 Introduction

The OECM methodology has been presented in previous chapters, based on which energy consumption and supply concepts for sectorial pathways were developed. All 12 sectors analysed have been described, the assumptions presented, and the derivations of the energy pathways explained in detail. The resulting energy-related CO₂ levels for the sectors are described in Chap. 12. The present chapter focuses on the results of the calculated Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for all the sectors analysed.

The industry-specific emission budgets are further subdivided into so-called Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions, which define the responsibility for those emissions. So far, this system has only been applied to companies, and not yet to entire industry sectors or regions. For a better overview, the OECM definitions of Scopes 1, 2, and 3, which are explained in detail in Chap. 4, are shown again in Box 13.1.

Box 13.1: OneEarth Climate Model: Definitions of Scope 1, 2, and 3 Emissions

Scope 1 – All direct emissions from the activities of an organization or under their control. Including on-site fuel combustion, such as gas boilers, fleet vehicles, and air-conditioning leaks. For this analysis only, the economic activities covered under the sector-specific GICS classification that are counted under the sector are included. All the energy demands reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Advanced World Energy Balances (IEA, 2020, 2021) for a specific sector are included.

Scope 2 – Indirect emissions from electricity purchased and used by an organization. Emissions are created during the production of this energy, which is eventually used by the organization. For reasons of data availability, the calculation of these emission focuses on the electricity demand and ‘own consumption’, e.g. reported for power generation.

Scope 3 – Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by the analysed industry, limited to sector-specific activities and/or products, as classified in the GICS. The OECM only includes sector-specific emissions. Traveling, commuting, and all other transport-related emissions are reported under transport. The lease of buildings is reported under buildings. All other finance activities, such as ‘capital goods’, are excluded because no data are available for the GICS industry sectors, and their inclusion would lead to double counting. The OECM analysis is limited to energy-related CO₂ and energy-related methane (CH₄) emissions. All other GHGs are calculated outside the OECM model by Meinshausen and Dooley (2019).

The results and key parameters for the primary and secondary energy sectors are presented first, followed by those for the industries and services, buildings, and transport sectors.

2 Scope 1, 2, and 3: Energy and Utilities

The energy sector includes the primary production of energy from oil, gas, hard coal, and lignite, and all renewable energies. This includes the exploration for all types of fossil fuels; the operation of oil and gas drilling facilities, mining equipment, and fossil fuel transport to refineries; and further processing facilities, as defined under GICS Sector 10 Energy. To remain within the defined carbon budget, no new oil, gas, or coal-mining projects can be opened up, an assumption that is consistent with the recommendations of the IEA NetZero by 2050 report (IEA-NZ 2050) (Table 13.1).

Table 13.1 GICS Sector 10 energy

As documented in section 10, the OECM 1.5 °C trajectory requires a phase-out of brown coal (lignite) and hard coal by 2030 in all Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and in all other regions thereafter by 2050, at the very latest. The phase-out of brown coal has priority over that of hard coal, because its specific CO₂ emissions are higher. For the oil and gas sector, it is assumed that existing mines will wind-down, with an average decline in production of minus 2% per year for coal, minus 4% per year for onshore oil fields and 6% per year offshore oil fields, and minus 4% per year on- and offshore gas fields, which represent the average industry standards on the global scale (see Chap. 10). However, the production decline rates will differ significantly by region and geological formation. It is assumed that natural gas will be phased out by 2050 and partly replaced by alternative fuels, such as hydrogen and/or synthetic fuels, from 2025 onwards. The energy sector is also assumed to transition to utility-scale renewable energy projects and therefore to maintain its core business of energy production. Utility-scale renewables are defined as power plants that produce bulk power that is sold to utilities or end-use customers in the industry or service sector, such as offshore and onshore wind farms, solar farms, and geothermal and biomass power plants (including combined heat and power) with over 1 megawatt installed capacity.

A significant part of the renewable energy production by this sector under the 1.5 °C pathway will be from offshore wind, both to supply utilities with electricity and to produce hydrogen and other synthetic fuels. Figure 13.1 shows the global amounts of annual energy production in petajoules (PJ). The renewable energy production level will reach parity with those of oil and gas by 2030 and will continue to grow throughout the next two decades. The remaining oil and gas production shown for 2050 is for non-energy use.

Fig. 13.1

Global primary energy sector—energy production under the OECM 1.5 °C pathway

Energy—Scope 1 emissions are defined as the direct emissions related to the extraction, mining, and burning of fossils fuels. This analysis covers both the energy-related CO₂ emissions and non-energy GHGs, such as methane (CH₄) emissions from mining and fossil fuel production.

Energy—Scope 2 emissions are indirect emissions from the electricity used for the operation of mining equipment, oil and gas rigs, refineries, and other equipment required in the primary energy sector. Their calculation is based on statistical information (‘own consumption’) from the IEA Advanced Energy Balances. The OECM assumes the global average carbon intensity of electricity generation for each calculated year according to the OECM power scenario, which will reach 100% renewables by 2050 (for details, see Chap. 12).

Energy—Scope 3 emissions are embedded CO₂ emissions, which occur when the fossil fuel produced by the primary energy industry is burnt by end users.

Table 13.2 shows the scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for coal, oil, and gas and the development of the fuel intensity of the global economy. In 2019, as a global average, 1.25 PJ of coal was used for each billion US$ of gross domestic product ($GDP). This coal intensity is assumed to halve by 2025 and to drop by 85% by 2030. The global economy will grow independently of coal use under the OECM 1.5 °C pathway (Table 13.3).

Table 13.2 Global energy sector—scopes 1, 2, and 3 for coal, oil, and gas

Table 13.3 Global energy sector—scopes 1, 2, and 3

The utilities sector covers energy transport and the operation and maintenance of power- and heat-generating equipment and is responsible for the energy transport infrastructure, such as power grids and pipelines to the end user. In this analysis, the utilities sector is a secondary energy service provider, whose core function is the generation and distribution of electricity and the distribution of natural gas, as well as hydrogen and synthetic fuels, beyond 2030. It operates and maintains power and cogeneration plants, power grids (all voltage levels), and pipelines and provides energy services, such as balancing, demand-side management, and storage. ‘Utilities’ are energy service companies linking the primary energy supply with consumers.

Electricity and gaseous fuel supplies are the core commodities of gas and power utilities. With the increased electrification of the transport and heating sectors, the electricity demand—and therefore the potential market value of power utilities—will increase significantly. Renewable electricity will overtake global coal- and gas-fuelled power generation combined by 2025. By 2045, the market volume of hydrogen and synthetic fuels will be as high as that of natural gas for gas utilities, making them important new products.

Utilities—Scope 1 emissions are defined as the direct emissions from fuels related to the generation and transmission of electricity and the distribution of fossil fuels and/or renewable gas.

Utilities—Scope 2 emissions are indirect emissions from the electricity used for the production of a sector’s core product. This includes the electricity consumption of power plants, losses by power grids, and the operation of pumps for gas pipelines, etc. Their calculations are based on statistical information listed under ‘self-consumption’ of the IEA Advanced Energy Balances plus the global average power grids losses, which are assumed to be 7.5%.

Utilities—Scope 3 emissions are embedded CO₂ emissions that occur with the use of electricity or gaseous fuels by end users. Table 13.4 shows all scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for the utilities sector by sub-sector and in total.

Table 13.4 Global utilities sector—scopes 1, 2, and 3

3 Scopes 1, 2, and 3: Industry

All results for the scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for the five main energy-intensive industry sectors are based on the energy demand assessment documented in Chap. 5.

3.1 Scopes 1, 2, and 3: Chemical Industry

The chemical industry is the most complex industry of all the sectors analysed, and the data available on its energy demand are less detailed than for, for example, the steel industry. Furthermore, the production of chemical commodities (see Sect. 5.1) is energy intensive, and they are used not only across the chemical industry but also in other sectors. Therefore, the calculation results shown in Table 13.5 are subject to uncertainties resulting from the paucity of detailed data. The global energy demand data for, for example, the pharmaceuticals industry are not available, and the calculations are based upon sector-specific energy intensities and the market shares of the pharmaceuticals industry in 2019 (see Sect. 5.1.3).

Table 13.5 Global scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions of the chemical industry

Chemicals—Scope 1 emissions are defined as the direct emissions related to the production of raw materials for the chemical industry from natural gas, ethane, oil-refining by-products (such a propylene), and salt, which are used to manufacture bulk chemicals, such as sulfuric acid, ammonia, chlorine, industrial gases, and basic polymers, such as polyethylene and polypropylene.

Chemicals—Scope 2 emissions are indirect emissions from the electricity used for the production and processing of chemical products and the manufacture of goods that fall under chemicals, as classified under GICS 1510 10.

Chemicals—Scope 3 emissions are all non-energy-related GHG emissions and aerosols that fall under the Montreal Protocol (UNEP MP, 2021). Montreal Protocol gases are mainly propellants, foams, or liquids and gases used for cooling and refrigeration that are produced by the chemical industry. More details about these gases are given in Chap. 11.

Scope 1 and 2 emissions will reach zero by 2050, whereas Scope 3 emissions will only be reduced by 73% compared with 2019 due to the nature of those substances.

3.2 Scope 1, 2 and 3: Cement Industry

The energy intensity of the cement production processes is well-documented, and data for the energy demands and process emissions are available. This analysis includes all steps in cement production, from quarrying the raw materials to its storage in cement silos. However, the further processing of cement for construction, for example, is not included but is included in the buildings and construction sector (Sect. 13.4).

Cement—Scope 1 emissions are defined as the direct energy-related CO₂ emissions related to all steps of cement production, from mining to the final raw product that is used in further processes and applications. The fuels for mining vehicles are included, as well as the process heat for clinker production in kilns, etc. Emissions from the calcination process—the decomposition of limestone into quick lime and carbon dioxide (Kumar et al., 2007)—are also included.

Cement—Scope 2 emissions are the indirect emissions from the electricity used across all steps of the value chain of the cement industry.

Cement—Scope 3 emissions of the cement industry are scope 2 emissions of the buildings sector, according to the World Business Council for Sustainable Development’s Cement Sector Reporting Guidance (WBCSD, 2016).

By 2050, there will be no energy-related CO₂ emissions from the cement industry under the OECM 1.5 °C pathway (Sect. 5.2). Process emissions from calcination are assumed to decline from 0.4 tCO₂ per tonne of clinker to 0.24 tCO₂—an assumption based on the IEA Technology Roadmap (IEA, 2018). Table 13.6 and Fig. 13.2 show the calculated results for the scope 1, 2, and 3 emission of the global cement industry.

Table 13.6 Global scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for the cement industry

Fig. 13.2

Global cement sector—energy- and process-related CO₂ under the OECM 1.5 °C pathway

3.3 Scopes 1, 2, and 3: Aluminium Industry

As for the cement industry, all aluminium production processes are well-documented. The processes and their energy demand for each step of aluminium production, from bauxite mining to aluminium sheets or aluminium blocks, which are then delivered to other industries for further processing, are available in the literature. The recycling of aluminium for the production of secondary aluminium is also included. All assumptions for the projected development of the aluminium industry—including bauxite mining—are documented in Sect. 5.3.

Aluminium—Scope 1 emissions are defined as the direct energy-related CO₂ emissions related to the use of fuels for bauxite mining, alumina processing, and all steps of the production of primary and secondary aluminium. The process emissions from anode or paste (IAI, 2006) consumption, which lead to CO₂ emissions that are not energy related, are included.

Aluminium—Scope 2 emissions are the indirect emissions from the electricity used across all the steps of the value chain of the aluminium industry.

Aluminium—Scope 3 emissions are solely those emissions caused by tetrafluoromethane, a strong GHG that is produced in certain aluminium production processes. A recent study published in Nature highlights the increased emissions of this gas, which probably derive from aluminium production facilities in Asia (Nature 8/2021). We decided to include tetrafluoromethane emissions in this OECM analysis to highlight the importance of this finding.

By 2050, all energy-related CO₂ emissions of the aluminium industry will be zero and the industry will be fully decarbonized. However, process-related GHG emissions are not expected to be completely phased out (Table 13.7).

Table 13.7 Global scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for the aluminium industry

3.4 Scope 1, 2, and 3: Steel Industry

Global and regional steel industry emissions are among the most discussed of all industry emissions. Various industry- and science-based working groups have developed relevant scenarios over the past decade. However, most of them are consistent with the Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap of the IEA (IEA, 2020). The OECM 1.5 °C pathway for the steel industry is based to a large extent on the IEA assumptions for the energy demand side but has added a more ambitious decarbonization scenario for the energy supply side. Figure 13.3 shows the development of iron-ore mining and primary and secondary steel production assumed for the global market between 2019 and 2050. The increase in secondary steel—recycled steel, mainly from scrap—will increase from 35% in 2019 to 48% in 2050, leading to a reduction in the iron and mining demands and the process emissions that are only related to primary steel production. Therefore, a high recycling rate will directly affect process emissions, which are not related to the actual energy supply but to the steel-making process itself. Further information about the assumptions for the steel industry is documented in Chap. 5 (Sect. 5.4).

Fig. 13.3

Global steel sector—iron-ore mining and steel production under the OECM 1.5 °C pathway

The OECM analysis includes energy-related CO₂ emissions that occur from iron-ore mining across all steps of the steel manufacturing processes for primary and secondary steel but exclude manufacturing processes that use steel for product manufacture, such as the automotive industry.

Steel—Scope 1 emissions are defined as the direct energy-related CO₂ emissions related to the use of fuels for iron-ore mining and the production of primary and secondary steel. Process emissions from anode or paste (IAI, 2006) consumption, which lead to CO₂ emissions that are not energy related, are included.

Steel—Scope 2 emissions are the indirect emissions from the electricity used across all steps of the value chain of the steel industry.

Steel—Scope 3 emissions are only process-related emissions, as defined in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006). It is assumed that process emissions will decline significantly from 0.92 tCO₂ per tonne currently to 0.08 tCO₂ by 2050 as a result of the transition to electric-furnace-based steel production (see Sect. 5.4.3) (Table 13.8).

Table 13.8 Global scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for the steel industry

3.5 Scopes 1, 2, and 3: Textile and Leather Industry

The textile and leather industry is part of the IEA industry sector but is not part of the GICS (15) materials group (see Chap. 4). The textile and leather industry is closely associated with the chemicals industry, from which synthetic fibres and plastic for accessories are sourced, and with the agriculture sector, for cotton and other natural fibres. The production of leather depends on animal farms, especially those that produce meat. The assumptions made for the calculation of the energy-related CO₂ emissions of this industry are documented in Sect. 5.5.

Textile and Leather—Scope 1 emissions are defined as the direct energy-related CO₂ emissions associated with all the steps of textile and leather production that require process heat or fuels. It covers leather production, but not the production of fibres, which is part of the chemicals sector. The calculation of these emissions includes the value chain until delivery to retail.

Textile and Leather—Scope 2 emissions are the indirect emissions from the electricity used for the production of textile and leather products, excluding fibres manufacture and retail.

Textile and Leather—Scope 3 emissions include 25% of all CH₄ emissions from the agricultural sector to reflect the non-energy-related GHG emissions associated with the production of natural fibres and animal skins (Table 13.9).

Table 13.9 Global scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for the textile and leather industry

4 Scope 1, 2, and 3: Services

All the results for the scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions of the four service sectors analysed are based on the energy demand assessment documented in Chap. 6. Non-energy-related GHG emissions form the majority of the service sector emissions, whereas energy-related CO₂ is a relatively small component compared with that in other sectors, such as industry and transport. These non-energy-related GHG emissions—referred to as agriculture, forestry, and other land-uses (AFOLU) in climate science—are among the main emitters of non-energy CO₂, CH₄, and nitrous oxide (N₂O). The service sectors analysed, agriculture and food, forestry and wood, fisheries, and water utilities, are described and the assumptions are documented in Chaps. 6, 11, and 14. Therefore, in this section, we focus solely on the presentation of their calculated scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions.

4.1 Scope 1, 2, and 3: Agriculture and Food Sector

The agriculture and food sector includes all economic activities from ‘the field to the supermarket’. With regard to the energy used, this sector is a combination of the service sector agriculture and the industry sub-sector food and tobacco. Therefore, it includes crop and animal farming and the processing of all commodities into food, beverages, and tobacco products.

Agriculture and Food—Scope 1 emissions are related to fuel used in agricultural vehicles, such as tractors, machinery for harvesting and other equipment used on farms, as well as heat for food and tobacco processing and packaging.

Agriculture and Food—Scope 2 emissions include those for electricity purchased from utilities for either farming or any step in food processing or packaging. On-site electricity generation (e.g. on farms via solar photovoltaic, wind power, or bioenergy from residuals) will reduce scope 2 emissions, but sub-sector-specific on-site generation is not assumed in this analysis.

Agriculture and Food—Scope 3 emissions include AFOLU emissions, N₂O, and ammonia emissions from fertilizers and CH₄ emissions (see Chaps. 11 and 14).

All energy-related CO₂ emissions of the agriculture and food sector will be reduced by half by 2030 and phased out entirely by 2050. However, it is assumed that AFOLU emissions from agriculture cannot be reduced to zero, because the demand for food for the growing global population will increase (Table 13.10).

Table 13.10 Global scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for the agriculture and food sector (including tobacco)

4.2 Scopes 1, 2, and 3: Forestry and Wood Sector

Like the agriculture and food sector, the forestry and wood sector contains to sub-sectors: forestry, which is part of the IEA’s other sectors, and the IEA industry sub-sector wood and wood products, which includes the pulp and paper industry. Details of the energy demand of this sector are provided in Sect. 6.2.

Forestry and Wood—Scope 1 emissions include those from heavy machinery for wood harvesting, all-terrain vehicles, power tools, chainsaws, etc.

Forestry and Wood—Scope 2 emissions are the indirect emissions from electricity. Like the agricultural sector, the forestry sector has significant potential for on-site power and heat generation, e.g. from forestry residuals, which can lower its scope 2 emissions, but this is not assumed under the OECM 1.5 °C pathway.

Forestry and Wood—Scope 3 emissions are forestry-related AFOLU emissions. The transition towards sustainably managed forests, the cessation of deforestation, and the commencement of reforestation are integral parts of the OECM 1.5 °C pathway as ‘carbon sinks’. Therefore, scope 3 emissions will become negative by 2030 (see Chaps. 11 and 14) (Table 13.11).

Table 13.11 Global scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for the forestry and wood sector

4.3 Scopes 1, 2, and 3: Fisheries Sector

The majority of all energy-related scope 1 and 2 emissions in this industry are from fishing vessels and other equipment directly related to wild catches and aquaculture fish farms. Whereas the energy demand for fishing vessels is documented in the literature (see Sect. 6.3), no statistical data on the global energy demand for aquaculture and fish farming are available. Instead, only accumulated data on the GHG emissions for the global aquaculture sector have been published and have been used to calculate the scope 3 emissions (MacLeod et al., 2020). Therefore, the energy demand of the fishing industry in 2019 and its projection until 2050 are estimates with uncertainties.

Fisheries—Scope 1 emissions are defined as the direct energy-related CO₂ emissions related to the use of fuels for fishing vessels and directly related to the infrastructure, such as refrigerators and freezers for fish on board fishing vessels.

Fisheries—Scope 2 emissions are the indirect emissions from the electricity used for cooling devices as part of the cooling chain for fish, from ‘dock to supermarket’.

Fisheries—Scope 3 emissions are emissions from aquaculture as defined by MacLeod et al. (2020) as ‘emissions arising from fishmeal production, feed blending, transport … and non-feed emissions from the nitrification and denitrification of nitrogenous compounds in the aquatic system (‘aquatic N₂O’)’. Also included are the estimated energy-use emissions, mainly for pumping water.

Table 13.12 shows the results for all the calculated emissions in this industry. It is assumed that about one-quarter of aquaculture scope 3 emissions are directly related to energy use and will therefore be reduced to zero with the use of 100% renewable energy.

Table 13.12 Global scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for the fisheries sector

4.4 Scopes 1, 2, and 3: Water Utilities

Only 13% of the GHG emission from water utilities are related to energy use. The bulk of GHG emissions are related to CH₄ and N₂O emission from sewers or the treatment of biological wastewater and the resulting sludge. Chapter 6 documents all the assumptions and input data used to calculate the scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for water utilities.

Water Utilities—Scope 1 emissions are defined as the direct energy-related CO₂ emissions associated with the supply of the low- and medium-temperature process heat used in all steps of wastewater treatment.

Water Utilities—Scope 2 emissions are the indirect emissions from the electricity used across all steps of wastewater treatment processes.

Water Utilities—Scope 3 emissions are the CH₄ and N₂O emissions from sewers or biological wastewater treatment. They are calculated with average global emission factors of 0.17 kg CO₂ equivalents per cubic metre (kgCO₂eq/m³) for CH₄ emissions and 0.033 kgCO₂eq/m³ for N₂O emissions.

Water utilities have significant potential to use the CH₄ from sewage and wastewater treatment for on-site power and heat generation. The identified scope 2 emissions for water utilities do not include the implementation of this technology. The scope 3 emissions shown in Table 13.13 are entirely related to CH₄ and N₂O emissions and are projected to increase with the growing global population. The use of on-site CH₄ emissions with a global warming potential (GWP) of 25 (see Chap. 11) for electricity and heat generation would result in CO₂ (GWP = 1), instead of CH₄ emissions, and would therefore significantly reduce the scope 3 emissions. Therefore, we strongly recommend the utilization of on-site CH₄ emissions for energy generation.

Table 13.13 Global scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for water utilities

5 Scopes 1, 2, and 3: Buildings

The buildings sector is further broken down into residential and commercial buildings and is based on calculations that include construction. The energy demand for construction is taken from the IEA World Energy Balances, and the demand includes the construction of buildings (ISIC Rev. 4, Div. 41), civil engineering (ISIC Rev. 4, Div. 42), and specialized construction activities (Div. 43), as documented in Chap. 4. It is assumed that 60% of the energy used for construction is for buildings. The energy demands calculated for residential and commercial buildings are based on a separate research project under the leadership of the Central European University (Chatterjee et al., 2021) and are documented in Chaps. 3 and 7.

Buildings—Scope 1 emissions are defined as direct energy-related CO₂ emissions associated with the construction of those buildings.

Buildings—Scope 2 emissions are indirect emissions from the residential and commercial use of electricity and energy for space heating. The commercial electricity demand is the remaining electricity that is not allocated elsewhere in the service, industry, transport, or residential sectors, to avoid double counting.

Buildings—Scope 3 emissions are the scope 1 emissions of the cement industry to capture the embedded building emissions from construction materials.

There are no scope 3 emissions calculated for construction to avoid double counting with the remaining buildings sector. Table 13.14 shows the global scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for all sub-sectors and for the overall buildings sector.

Table 13.14 Global scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for buildings

6 Scope 1, 2, and 3: Transport

The transport sector includes all travel modes (aviation, shipping, and road transport), and passenger and freight transport have been calculated separately on the basis of current and projected passenger-kilometres (pkm) and tonne-kilometres (tkm), as documented in Chap. 8. The transport sector includes the manufacture of vehicles and other transport equipment, as defined in GICS group 2030 (see Chap. 4) and documented in Sect. 8.9.

Transport—Scope 1 emissions are defined as the direct energy-related CO₂ emissions associated with the manufacture of road and rail vehicles, planes, and ships.

Transport—Scope 2 emissions are the indirect emissions from electricity used for all from the electric drives in vehicles and the electricity required for hydrogen or synthetic fuel production. The emission factors for this electricity—as in all other scope 2 emission calculations—are based on the OECM 1.5 °C pathway for power generation, with an emission factor of 0.5 kg CO₂ per kilowatt-hour in 2019, which will decline to zero by 2050.

Transport—Scope 3 emissions are all the emissions caused by the utilization of all vehicles, planes, and ships for passenger and freight transport by end users. These emissions are not further allocated to other sectors in which vehicles are used to avoid double counting. Data are unavailable on how freight kilometres are distributed to, for example, the cement or steel industry.

Table 13.15 provides the global scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for the transport sector. Specific emissions from, for example, airports or single airline offices, as defined under GICS 2030 5010, cannot be assessed on a global scale because of lack of data. Furthermore, these emissions are allocated under ‘commercial buildings’. Scope 3 emissions are the ‘classic’ emissions when consumers drive a car or use a plane. The OECM deliberately includes electricity emissions from, for example, electric cars under scope 2 emissions, because car manufacturers today include the charging infrastructure in their value chain and are therefore responsible for it.

Table 13.15 Global scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions for the transport sector

7 Scopes 1, 2, and 3: Global Summary

A global assessment of scopes 1, 2, and 3 for the whole industry sector is a new research area, and changes had to be made to the method for determining those emissions, which was originally developed by the World Resource Institute (WRI), as documented in Chap. 4.

The OECM methodology differs from the original concept primarily insofar as the interactions between industries and/or other services are kept separate. A primary class is defined for the primary energy industry, a secondary class for the supply utilities, and an end-use class for all the economic activities that consume energy from the primary- or secondary-class companies, to avoid double counting. All the emissions by defined industry categories (e.g. with GICS) are also separated, streamlining the accounting and reporting systems. The volume of data required is reduced, and reporting is considerably simplified with the OECM methodology.

Figure 13.4 shows the global energy-related scope 1, 2, and 3 CO₂ emissions in 2019 as a Sanky flow chart. The primary energy emissions are on the left and the end-use-related emissions are on the right. The carbon budgets remain constant, from production to end use, apart from losses and statistical differences. A simplified description is that all scope 1 emissions are on the left, with the primary energy industry as the main emitter, and all scope 3 emissions are on the right, with the consumers of all forms of energy and for all purposes as the main emitters. In the secondary energy industry, utilities are the link between the demand of end users and the supply by the primary energy industry. The figure also shows the complex interconnections between demand and supply.

Fig. 13.4

Global scope 1, 2, and 3 energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2019

Figure 13.5 shows the energy-related CO₂ emissions and the interconnections between various sectors and consumers in 2030 under the global 1.5 °C pathway.

Fig. 13.5

Global scope 1, 2, and 3 energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2030 under the OECM 1.5 °C pathway