Abstract
A fundamental question in cognitive development is when young children are capable of incorporating probabilities into their inferences about everyday behaviors and how they represent knowledge of probability. In this chapter, we will focus on how children understand probability in an explicit manner – examples in which children must incorporate probabilistic data into their inferences.
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Acknowledgements
The authors were supported by NSF (1661068, 1917639 and 2033368 to DMS) during the writing of this chapter. We thank Emily Blumenthal, David Buchanan, and David Rakison who provided helpful discussion during the development of some of the research described in this chapter.
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Appendix: Summary of the Key Learning Mechanisms Discussed in This Chapter
Appendix: Summary of the Key Learning Mechanisms Discussed in This Chapter
Learning mechanisms | Definitions of learning abilities | Key studies | Age of acquisition |
|---|---|---|---|
Associative & Statistical learning | Associative learning: The process in which learners link two (or more) spatiotemporally contiguous, cooccurring features. Statistical learning: The process in which learners detect transitional probabilities between visual or auditory elements. | Kirkham et al. (2002); Rakison and Poulin-Dubois (2002), Saffran et al. (1996), Younger and Cohen (1983) | Statistical learning for auditory and visual sequences between 2–8 months of age. Associative learning for static stimuli between 4–10 months of age. Associative learning for dynamic stimuli between 10–18 months of age. |
Second-order correlation (SOC) learning | The process in which learners detect and link two features that are neither spatially nor temporally contiguous. | Benton et al. (2021); Rakison and Benton (2019); Yermolayeva and Rakison (2016) | SOC learning of static stimuli between 7 and 11 months of age and between 20 and 26 months of age for dynamic stimuli. SOC learning for dynamic stimuli: 20–26 months of age |
Probabilistic reasoning | The process in which learners determine the likelihood of an event taking place or occurring. | Denison and Xu (2010), Kushnir et al. (2010), Sobel and Kirkham (2012), Xu and Denison (2009), Xu and Garcia (2008) | 8–12 months of age. |
Uncertainty | The process in which learners must determine which of a number of possible outcomes is the correct one. | 3–7 years of age. |
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Benton, D.T., Sobel, D.M. (2022). Do Children Think Alea Iacta Est?: Developing Concepts of Uncertainty in Causal Reasoning. In: Beghetto, R.A., Jaeger, G.J. (eds) Uncertainty: A Catalyst for Creativity, Learning and Development . Creativity Theory and Action in Education, vol 6. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98729-9_12
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