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ENSO, IOD, Drought, and Floods in Equatorial Eastern Africa, 1876–1878

Part of the Palgrave Series in Indian Ocean World Studies book series (IOWS)

Abstract

This chapter investigates the effects of the 1876–1878 El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole on equatorial eastern Africa. The region under review comprises mainland regions of Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda, broadly corresponding to the central caravan route that linked inland regions to the wider Indian Ocean World through the nineteenth-century global ivory trade. It begins by using missionary and limnological sources to reconstruct climate in the region during the event. Notwithstanding some regional variations, the sources suggest that widespread drought occurred in 1876, with floods occurring in 1877–1878. Such an assessment is in line with climatological models that project El Niño’s effect on the region’s climate. It then examines how this drought and subsequent floods affected the region’s history. In so doing, it links this global climatic anomaly to disrupted agriculture, an epidemic of smallpox, an epizootic of bovine trypanosomiasis, and political instability.

Keywords

  • Historical climatology
  • Agriculture
  • Epidemics
  • Political instability
  • East Africa

The research for this article was funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada.

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Fig. 9.1

Drawn by Philip Gooding

Notes

  1. 1.

    Mike Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World (London: Verso, 2002).

  2. 2.

    Deepti Singh, Richard Seager, Benjamin I. Cook, Mark Cane, Mingfang Ting, Edward Cook, and Mike Davis, ‘Climate and the Global Famine of 1876–78,’ Journal of Climate, 31, 23, (2018), 9460.

  3. 3.

    Ibid., 9461; Boyin Huang, Michelle L’Heureux, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Xungang Yin, and Huai-Min Zhang, ‘How Significant Was the 1877/78 El Nino?’ Journal of Climate, 33, 11 (2020), 4854.

  4. 4.

    Huang et al., ‘How Significant,’ 4853–56; Patricio Aceituno, Maríadel del Rosario Prieto, María Eugenia Solari, Alejandra Martínez, Germán Poveda, and Mark Falvey, ‘The 1877–1878 El Niño Episode: Associated Impacts in South America,’ Climatic Change, 92 (2009), 411.

  5. 5.

    Singh et al., ‘Climate and Global Famine,’ 9456.

  6. 6.

    See also: Richard Grove and George Adamson, El Niño in World History (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), 97–98.

  7. 7.

    Singh et al., ‘Climate and the Global Famine,’ 9449; Aceituno et al., ‘The 1877–1878 El Nino,’ 389–416; ZhiXin Hao, JingYun Zheng, GuoFeng Wu, ZueZhen Zhang, and QuanSheng Ge, ‘1876–78 Severe Drought in North China: Facts, Impacts and Climatic Background,’ Chinese Science Bulletin, 55 (2010), 3001–7; Vimal Mishra, Amar Deep Tiwari, Saran Aadhar, Reepal Shah, Mu Xiao, D.S. Pai, and Dennis Lettenmaier, ‘Drought and Famine in India, 1870–2016,’ Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 4 (2019), 2075–83; David J. Nash, Kathleen Pribyl Jørgen Klein, Raphael Neukom, Georgina H. Endfield, George C.D. Adamson, and Dominic Kniveton, ‘Seasonal Rainfall Variability in Southeast Africa During the Nineteenth Century Reconstructed from Documentary Sources,’ Climatic Change, 134 (2016), 610; Stefan Grab and Tizian Zumthurm, ‘“Everything Is Scorched by the Burning Sun”: Missionary Perspectives and Experiences of 19th- and Early 20th-Century Droughts in Semi-Arid Namibia,’ Climate of the Past, 16, 2 (2020), 686; David J. Nash, Kathleen Pribyl, Georgina H. Endfield, Jørgen Klein, and George C.D. Adamson, ‘Rainfall Variability Over Malawi During the Late Nineteenth Century,’ International Journal of Climatology, 38, S1 (2018), 629–42; Fiona Williamson, ‘Responding to the Extremes: Managing Urban Water Scarcity in the Late Nineteenth-Century Straits Settlements,’ Water History (2020), 1–10; Chapter by Williamson in this volume.

  8. 8.

    See also: Singh et al., ‘Climate and Global Famine,’ 9450.

  9. 9.

    Hao et al., ‘1876–78 Severe Drought in North China,’ 3002.

  10. 10.

    Singh et al., ‘Climate and Global Famine,’ 9451.

  11. 11.

    Hao et al., ‘1876–1878 Severe Drought,’ 3005.

  12. 12.

    Singh et al., ‘Climate and Global Famine,’ 9446.

  13. 13.

    Grove and Adamson, El Niño in World History, 97–98.

  14. 14.

    Gwyn Campbell, Africa and the Indian Ocean World from Early Times to circa 1900 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019), 21.

  15. 15.

    There is one exception here: Philip Gooding, ‘Tsetse Flies, ENSO, and Murder: The Church Missionary Society’s Failed Ox-Cart Experiment of 1876–78,’ Africa: Rivista semestrale di studi e ricerche, 1, 2 (2019), 21–36. See also: The Indian Ocean World Podcast, ‘Podcast Episode 4—Gooding, Tsetse Flies, ENSO, and Murder’: https://www.appraisingrisk.com/2020/06/12/podcast-episode-4-gooding-tsetse-flies-enso-and-murder/ [accessed: 18 Sep. 2020].

  16. 16.

    Aceituno et al., ‘The 1877–1878 El Nino,’ 400–2, 408–10; Thomas F. McDow, Buying Time: Debt and Mobility in the Western Indian Ocean (Athens, OH: Ohio University Press, 2018), 41; Grove and Adamson, El Niño in World History, 97.

  17. 17.

    Sharon E. Nicholson, ‘A Semi-Quantitative, Regional Precipitation Data Set for Studying African Climates of the Nineteenth Century, Part I. Overview of the Data Set,’ Climatic Change, 50, 3 (2001), 317–53.

  18. 18.

    Gooding, ‘Tsetse Flies, ENSO, and Murder,’ 22–23.

  19. 19.

    Georgina H. Endfield and David J. Nash, ‘Missionaries and Morals: Climatic Discourse in Nineteenth-Century Central Southern Africa,’ Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 94, 2 (2002), 728–29.

  20. 20.

    Sharon E. Nicholson, ‘Climate and Climatic Variability of Rainfall Over Eastern Africa,’ Reviews of Geophysics, 55, 3 (2017), 605; Sharon E. Nicholson, ‘Long-Term Variability of the East African “Short Rains” and Its Links to Large-Scale Factors,’ International Journal of Climatology, 35, 13 (2015), 3979–90.

  21. 21.

    N.H. Saji, B.N. Goswami, P.N. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, ‘A Dipole Mode in the Tropical Indian Ocean,’ Nature, 401 (1999), 361.

  22. 22.

    Sharon E. Nicholson, Chris Funk, and Andreas H. Fink, ‘Rainfall Over the African Continent from the 19th Through the Twenty-First Century,’ Global and Planetary Change, 165 (2018), 116, 120.

  23. 23.

    Sharon E. Nicholson and Jeeyoung Kim, ‘The Relationship of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation to African Rainfall,’ International Journal of Climatology, 17 (1997), 117–35.

  24. 24.

    Nicholson, ‘Climate and Climatic Variability,’ 602–3.

  25. 25.

    Nicholson, ‘A Semi-Quantitative, Regional Precipitation Data Set,’ 317–53.

  26. 26.

    Ibid., 317–53.

  27. 27.

    Nicholson, ‘Climate and Climatic Variability,’ 595.

  28. 28.

    Sharon E. Nicholson and Xungang Yin, ‘Rainfall Conditions in Equatorial East Africa During the Nineteenth Century as Inferred from the Record of Lake Victoria,’ Climatic Change, 48 (2001), 388; Sharon E. Nicholson, ‘Historical and Modern Fluctuations of Lakes Tanganyika and Rukwa and Their Relationship to Rainfall Variability,’ Climatic Change, 41, 1 (1999), 53–71; Sharon E. Nicholson, ‘Historical Fluctuations of Lake Victoria and Other Lakes in the Northern Rift Valley of East Africa,’ in Environmental Change and Response in East African Lakes, ed. J.T. Lehman (Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1998), 7–35; Stefan Hastenrath, ‘Variations of East African Climate During the Past Two Centuries,’ Climatic Change, 50 (2001), 209–17; Declan Conway, ‘Extreme Rainfall Events and Lake Level Changes in East Africa: Recent Events and Historical Precedents,’ in The East African Great Lakes: Limnology, Palaeolimnology, and Biodiversity, eds. Eric O. Odada and Daniel O. Olago (Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2002), 63–92.

  29. 29.

    Ilse Bessems, Dirk Verschuren, James M. Russell, Jozef Hus, Florias Mees, and Brian F. Cumming, ‘Paleolimnological Evidence for Widespread Late Eighteenth Century Drought Across Equatorial East Africa,’ Paleogeography, Paleoclimatology, Paleoecology, 259 (2008), 183–93; James M. Russell, Dirk Verschuren, and Hilde Eggermont, ‘Spatial Complexity of “Little Ice Age” Climate in East Africa: Sedimentary Records from Two Crater Lake Basins in Western Uganda,’ The Holocene, 17, 2 (2007), 183–93; Campbell, Africa and the IOW, 134–57.

  30. 30.

    Campbell, Africa and the IOW, 184–85; Nicholson, ‘Historical and Modern Fluctuations,’ 53–71; Hastenrath, ‘Variations of East African Climate,’ 209–17.

  31. 31.

    Campbell, Africa and the IOW, 245–54. For 1879–1880, see: Clive A. Spinage, African Ecology: Benchmarks and Historical Perspectives (New York: Springer, 2012), 139. In 1879 and 1880, Ujiji received 756 mm and 694 mm of annual rainfall respectively (Edward C. Hore, Tanganyika: Eleven Years in Central Africa [London: Edward Stanford, 1892], 145). This is significantly lower than its annual average of 952 mm, based on twentieth-century measurements. For 1883–1884, see: Chapter by Rockel in this volume.

  32. 32.

    Campbell, Africa and the IOW, 176–254.

  33. 33.

    Conway, ‘Extreme Rainfall Events,’ 85. A similar ‘sea-change’ in EEA climate may be observed in the aftermath of extreme positive rainfall anomalies in 1961, 1983, and 1997. See: Nicholson, ‘Climate and Climatic Variability,’ 611.

  34. 34.

    Church Missionary Society Archive (hereafter: CMS) C/A6/O/16 Mackay to Wright, 14 Oct. 1876; Roger Price and Joseph Mullens, ‘A New Route and New Mode of Travelling into Central Africa,’ Proceedings of the Ryoal Geographical Society of London, 2, 4 (1876–7), 234–35; Henry Morton Stanley, How I Found Livingstone: Travels, Adventures, and Discoveries in Central Africa Including Four Months’ Residence with Dr. Livingstone (London: Sampson Low, Marston & Company, 1872), 114–20.

  35. 35.

    CMS C/A6/O/20 Price to Wright, 25 Nov. 1879.

  36. 36.

    CMS C/A6/O/7 Clark to Wright, 4 Nov. 1876; CMS C/A6/O/7 Clark to Wright, 6 Dec. 1876.

  37. 37.

    Edward C. Hore, Missionary to Tanganyika 1877-1888, ed. James B. Wolf (London: F. Cass, 1971), 22–25.

  38. 38.

    Ibid., 17.

  39. 39.

    Ibid., 25. See also: CMS C/A6/O/16 Mackay to Wright, 2 Feb. 1878; CMS C/A6/O/9 Copplestone to Wright, 16 Feb. 1878; CMS C/A6/O/16 Mackay to Wright, 22 Mar. 1878; CMS C/A6/O/14 Last to Wright, 11 May 1878; Alexina Mackay Harrison, The Story and Life of Mackay of Uganda: Pioneer Missionary (London: Hodder & Stoughton, 1900), 103; Norman R. Bennett, ‘Philippe Broyon: Pioneer Trader in East Africa,’ African Affairs, 62, 247 (1963), 158; Norman R. Bennett, From Zanzibar to Ujiji: The Journal of Arthur W. Dodgshun (Boston: African Studies Center, 1969), 15–16.

  40. 40.

    Hore, Missionary to Tanganyika, 26–27. See also: CMS C/A6/O/16 Mackay to Wright, 22 Mar. 1878.

  41. 41.

    CMS C/A6/O/9 Copplestone to Wright, 16 May 1878.

  42. 42.

    CMS C/A6/O/18 O’Neill to Wright, 29 Dec. 1876; CMS C/A6/O/21 Smith to Wright, 9 Feb. 1877.

  43. 43.

    James C. McCann, Maize and Grace: Africa’s Encounter with a New World Crop, 1500-2000 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2009), 19; N. Mbava, M. Mutema, R. Zengeni H. Shimelis, and V. Chaplot, ‘Factors Affecting Crop Water Use Efficiency: A Worldwide Meta-Analysis,’ Agricultural Water Management, 228 (2020), 1–11.

  44. 44.

    CMS C/A6/O/18 O’Neill to Wright, 29 Dec. 1876; CMS C/A6/O/16 Mackay to Wright, 9 Dec. 1877.

  45. 45.

    CMS C/A6/O/22 Shergold Smith to Wright, 2 Nov. 1877.

  46. 46.

    CMS C/A6/O/22 Journal of Lieut. Shergold Smith, 5 Nov.–4 Dec. 1877; CMS C/A6/O/25 Wilson to Wright, 15 Jan. 1878; CMS C/A6/O/25 Wilson to Wright, 19 Apr. 1878.

  47. 47.

    CMS C/A6/O/25 Wilson to Wright, Mar. 1878; CMS C/A6/O/16 Mackay to Smith-MacKenzie & Co., 16 May 1878; CMS C/A6/O/25 Wilson to Wright, 20 May 1878.

  48. 48.

    CMS C/A6/O/22 Shergold Smith to Wright, 1 Jan. 1877.

  49. 49.

    Nicholson, ‘Historical and Modern Fluctuations,’ 57.

  50. 50.

    CMS C/A6/O/16 Mackay to Smith-MacKenzie & Co., 16 May 1878.

  51. 51.

    CMS C/A6/O/16 Mackay to Wright, 20 July 1878; Hore, Missionary to Tanganyika, 49.

  52. 52.

    See also: CMS C/A6/M/M2 Thomson to Mackay, 31 July 1878.

  53. 53.

    Council for World Missions/London Missionary Society (hereafter: CWM/LMS) 06/02/003 Hore, ‘Kigoma Bay,’ 9 Dec. 1878.

  54. 54.

    See also: Henry Morton Stanley, Through the Dark Continent or the Sources of the Nile Around the Great Lakes of Equatorial Africa and Down the Livingstone River to the Atlantic Ocean (London: Sampson Low, Marston, Searle & Irvington, 1878), II, 11–12.

  55. 55.

    Nicholson, ‘Historical and Modern Fluctuations,’ 62; Ruud C.M. Crul, ‘Limnology and Hydrology of Lakes Tanganyika and Malawi,’ Comprehensive and Comparative Study of the Great Lakes (Paris: UNESCO Publishing, 1997), 34; C. Gillman, ‘The Hydrology of Lake Tanganyika,’ Tanganyika Territory Geological Survey Department, 5 (1933), 6.

  56. 56.

    Compare the accounts of the Lukuga outlet pre- and post-collapse of the dam: Stanley, Dark Continent, II, 45; Edward C. Hore, ‘Lake Tanganyika,’ Proceedings of the Royal Geographical Society and Monthly Record of Geography, 4, 1 (1882), 11–12; UK National Archives, Royal Geographical Society (hereafter: NA RGS) CB6/1167 Hore to RGS, 27 May 1879; Zanzibar National Archives (hereafter: ZNA) AA1/23 Hore to Kirk, 27 May 1879; ZNA BK1/12 Thomson to Kirk, 27 March 1880.

  57. 57.

    See, for example: Beverly Bolser-Brown, ‘Ujiji: The History of a Lakeside Town, c.1800-1914’ (Unpublished PhD diss.: Boston University, 1973), 2; CWM/LMS/06/02/005 Griffith to Whitehouse, 28 Aug. 1880; CWM/LMS/06/02/006 Griffith to Thompson, 12 Aug. 1881; CWM/LMS/06/02/008 Hore to Whitehouse, 18–21 June 1883.

  58. 58.

    CMS C/A6/O/22 Shergold Smith to Wright, 16 Aug. 1877; CMS C/A6/O/25 Wilson to Wright, 5 July 1877.

  59. 59.

    CMS C/A6/O/25 Wilson to Wright, 21 Nov. 1877.

  60. 60.

    Ibid.

  61. 61.

    Richard J. Reid, Political Power in Pre-Colonial Buganda: Economy, Society & Warfare in the Nineteenth Century (Oxford: James Currey, 2002), 22–25.

  62. 62.

    CMS C/A6/O/25 Wilson to Wright, 19 Apr. 1878.

  63. 63.

    Nicholson, ‘A Semi-Quantitative, Regional Precipitation Data Set,’ 317–53. This is taken from the data at Rubaga, in present-day Kampala.

  64. 64.

    Nicholson, ‘A Semi-Quantitative, Regional Precipitation Data Set,’ 317–53.

  65. 65.

    Philip Gooding, ‘History, Politics, and Culture in Central Tanzania,’ Oxford Research Encyclopedia of African History (2019), 5–9.

  66. 66.

    Philip Gooding, ‘The Ivory Trade and Political Power in Nineteenth-Century East Africa,’ in Animal Trade Histories in the Indian Ocean World, eds. Martha Chaiklin, Philip Gooding, and Gwyn Campbell (Cham, CH: Palgrave, 2020), 251–60.

  67. 67.

    Richard F. Burton, The Lake Regions of Central Africa: A Picture of Exploration (New York: Harper & Brothers, 1860), 354; Stanley, How I Found, 395; Stanley, Dark Continent, II, 4, 47.

  68. 68.

    Mbava et al., ‘Factors Affecting Crop Water Use Efficiency,’ 1–11.

  69. 69.

    Gooding, ‘Tsetse Flies, ENSO, and Murder,’ 21–36.

  70. 70.

    William L. Krinsky, ‘Tsetse Flies (Glossinidae),’ in Medical and Veterinary Entomology, eds. Gary R. Mullen and Lance Durden (London: Academic Press, 2019), 369–82.

  71. 71.

    Verney Lovett Cameron, Across Africa (New York: Harper & Brothers, 1877), 48; Price and Mullens, ‘A New Route,’ 241–43; Helge Kjekshus, Ecology Control and Economic Development in East African History: The Case of Tanganyika 1850-1950, 2nd ed. (London: James Currey, 1996), 164, map 8.1.

  72. 72.

    Stephen J. Rockel, ‘The Tutsi and the Nyamwezi: Cattle, Mobility, and the Transformation of Agro-Pastoralism in Nineteenth-Century Western Tanzania,’ History in Africa, 46 (2019), 233; Richard J. Reid, War in Pre-Colonial Eastern Africa: The Patterns and Meanings of State-Level Conflict in the Nineteenth Century (Nairobi: The British Institute in Eastern Africa, 2007), 134; Stanley, How I Found, 178.

  73. 73.

    Burton, Lake Regions, 386; Stanley, How I Found, 227, 254, 447; CWM/LMS/06/02/003 Thomson to LMS, 4 Aug. 1878.

  74. 74.

    This is further suggested in: CMS C/A6/M/M2 Thomson to Mackay, 31 July 1878.

  75. 75.

    Hussein Gadain, Nicolas Bidault, Linda Stephen, Ben Watkins, Maxx Dilley, and Nancy Mutunga, ‘Reducing the Impacts of Floods Through Early Warning and Preparedness: A Pilot Study for Kenya,’ in Natural Disaster Hotspots: Case Studies, eds. Margaret Arnold, Robert S. Chen, Uwe Deichmann, Maxx Dilley, Randolph E. Pullen, and Zoe Trohanis (Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2006), 178–79.

  76. 76.

    For nineteenth-century IOW smallpox epidemics, see: Campbell, Africa and the IOW, 246–53. For examples related to drought during the 1877–1878 ENSO-IOD event, see: Anastácio Q. Sousa and Richard Pearson, ‘Drought, Smallpox, and Emergence of Leishmania braziliensis in Northeastern Brazil,’ Emerging Infectious Diseases, 15, 6 (2009), 917–19; Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts, 80–88; Williamson, ‘Responding to the Extremes,’ 4.

  77. 77.

    CMS C/A6/M/M1 Holmwood to Hutchinson, 19 Aug. 1876; CMS C/A6/O/16 Mackay to Wright, 18 Sep. 1876; CMS C/A6/O/16 Mackay to Wright, 14 Oct. 1876; CMS C/A6/O/13 Kirk to Wright, 22 Nov. 1876.

  78. 78.

    Beverly Bolser-Brown and Walter Brown, ‘East African Trade Towns: A Shared Growth,’ in A Century of Change in Eastern Africa, ed. W. Arens (The Hague: Morton Publishers, 1976), 190–93; Gerald W. Hartwig, ‘Demographic Considerations in East Africa During the Nineteenth Century,’ International Journal of African Historical Studies, 12, 4 (1979), 662–64; Kjekshus, Ecology Control, 132; CWM/LMS/06/02/005 Griffith to Whitehouse, 19 May 1880; CWM/LMS/06/02/005 Hore to Whitehouse, 20 July 1880; Walter Hutley, The Central African Diaries of Walter Hutley, ed. James B. Wolf (Boston: African Studies Center, 1976), 170, 173, 183, 193, 197, 213–14; CWM/LMS/06/02/008 Hore to Whitehouse, 18–21 June 1883, Jones to Whitehouse, 20 Aug. 1883; Royal Museum for Central Africa Emile Storms Archive (hereafter: RMCA ESA) HA.01.017-6 Storms to AIA, 1883; CWM/LMS/06/02/009 Jones to Whitehouse 24 June 1884. The European explorer, Henry Morton Stanley, reported an outbreak of smallpox in Ujiji in August 1876, but he left the town before the subsequent failed mvuli rains. Thus, it is unknown how or if the 1876 ENSO-IOD-related drought affected its spread there thereafter, although evidence from the coast and hinterland suggests it was prevalent along all caravan routes. See: Stanley, Dark Continent, II, 62; Royal Museum of Central Africa Henry Morton Stanley Archive (hereafter: RMCA HMSA) 33. Stanley to Daily Telegraph and New York Herald, 13 Aug. 1876. Smallpox was also especially prelavent in 1884 near the coast and in Buganda. See: Juhani Koponen, People and Production in Late Precolonial Tanzania: History and Structures (Helsinki: Finnish Society for Development Studies, 1988), 165–66, 173; CMS G/3/A/6/O Ashe to Lang, 25 Mar. 1884; CMS G/3/A/6/O O’Flaherty to CMS, 1 Apr. 1884; CMS G/3/A/6/O O’Flaherty to Wigram, July 1884; Archivio Generale dei Missionarie d’Africa (hereafter: A.G.M.Afr.) Vicariat apostolique du Nyanza, 11 July 1884, Chronique Trimestrielles, 23–24 (Oct 1884).

  79. 79.

    CWM/LMS/06/02/005 Hore to Whitehouse, 20 July 1880; A.G.M.Afr. C.16-84. Guillet to White Fathers, 17 Apr. 1884.

  80. 80.

    Any number of publications could be cited here, which have grown in prominence since the Arab Spring in 2011. For a recent example, see: Emrah Sofuoğlu and Ahmet Ay, ‘The Relationship Between Climate Change and Political Instability: The Case of MENA Countries (1985:01-2016:12),’ Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27 (2020), 14033–43.

  81. 81.

    Grove and Adamson, El Niño in World History, 63–65; Campbell, Africa and the IOW, 146–47; Jingyun Zheng, Lingbo Xiao, Xiuqi Fang, Zhixin Hao, Quansheng Ge, and BeiBei Li, ‘How Climate Impacted the Collapse of the Ming Dynasty,’ Climatic Change, 127 (2014), 169–82.

  82. 82.

    CMS C/A6/O/18 O’Neill to Wright, 29 Dec. 1876; CMS C/A6/M/M1 Morton to Smith MacKenzie & Co., 25 July 1877; CMS C/A6/O/18 O’Neill to Wright, Oct. 1877; CMS C/A6/O/22 Shergold Smith to Wright, 2 Nov. 1877.

  83. 83.

    CWM/LMS/06/02/004 Southon to LMS, 8 Sept. 1879; Burton, Lake Regions, 270.

  84. 84.

    Reid, War in Pre-Colonial, 120–21, 133–34; CMS C/A6/O/18 O’Neill to Wright, 29 Dec. 1876; CMS C/A6/O/22 Shergold Smith to Wright, 2 Nov. 1877; CMS C/A6/O/24 Stokes to Wright, 23 Oct. 1878.

  85. 85.

    Stephen J. Rockel, Carriers of Culture: Labor on the Road in Nineteenth-Century East Africa (Portsmouth, NH: Heinemann, 2006), 6; Jan-Georg Deutsch, ‘Notes on the Rise of Slavery & Social Change in Unyamwezi,’ in Slavery in the Great Lakes Region of East Africa, eds. Henri Médard and Shane Doyle (Oxford: James Currey, 2007), 87; Reid, War in Pre-Colonial, 132.

  86. 86.

    CMS C/A6/O/18 O’Neill to Wright, 29 Dec. 1876; CMS C/A6/O/21 Smith to Wright, 9 Feb. 1877.

  87. 87.

    CMS C/A6/O/22 Shergold Smith to Wright, 2 Nov. 1877.

  88. 88.

    Gooding, ‘The Ivory Trade and Political Power,’ 257–59.

  89. 89.

    Reid, War in Pre-Colonial, 124; McDow, Buying Time, 190–214; Gerald W. Hartwig, ‘The Victoria Nyanza as a Trade Route in the Nineteenth Century,’ Journal of African History, 11, 4 (1970), 535–52; C.F. Holmes, ‘Zanzibari Influence at the Southern End of Lake Victoria: The Lake Route,’ African Historical Studies, 4, 3 (1971), 477–503; Richard J. Reid, ‘The Ganda on Lake Victoria: A Nineteenth-Century East African Imperialism,’ Journal of African History, 39, 3 (1998), 349–63; CMS C/A6/O/16 Mackay to Wright, 23 Aug. 1880.

  90. 90.

    CMS C/A6/O/18 O’Neill to Wright, 29 Dec. 1876; CMS C/A6/O/16 Mackay to Wright, 20 July 1878; CMS C/A6/O/9 Copplestone to Wright, 24 June 1879.

  91. 91.

    Chapter by Rockel, this volume.

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Gooding, P. (2022). ENSO, IOD, Drought, and Floods in Equatorial Eastern Africa, 1876–1878. In: Gooding, P. (eds) Droughts, Floods, and Global Climatic Anomalies in the Indian Ocean World. Palgrave Series in Indian Ocean World Studies. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98198-3_9

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