Abstract
Drought is a natural disaster that can cause water scarcity and damage to crop yields. Rather than conventionally used univariate drought monitoring indices, this study applied the parametric Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) for drought monitoring in the Marathwada region. The index is constructed using historical time series of precipitation and soil moisture by engaging copula functions. The drought conditions characterized by MSDI are then compared with two univariate drought indices. Two significant drought characteristics, duration, and severity are identified using the MSDI and fitted probability models. The best-fit marginal distributions were selected by performing goodness-of-fit tests and standard performance measures. Three Archimedean copulas and two meta-elliptical copulas were applied for bivariate modelling of drought characteristics, and their suitability was evaluated using goodness-of-fit tests. Subsequently, the drought risks for the study region have been assessed using the constructed copula-based joint distribution models. The results highlight the importance of multivariate drought risk assessment in the study region.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the various organizations that provided support for the study. Department of Science and Technology (SPLICE–Climate Change Programme), Government of India, Project #DST/488/CCP/CoE/140/2018 for funding support; the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) of NASA for providing the datasets used in this study.
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Datta, R., Reddy, M.J. (2022). Bivariate Drought Risk Estimation Using a Multivariate Standardized Drought Index in Marathwada Region, India. In: Tarekul Islam, G.M., Shampa, S., Chowdhury, A.I.A. (eds) Water Management: A View from Multidisciplinary Perspectives. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-95722-3_9
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