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Integration of Geographic Profiling with Forensic Intelligence to Target Serial Crime

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Abstract

A disproportionate number of crimes are attributable to a small fraction of criminal actors. Focusing resources to apprehend or disrupt serial (and recidivist) offenders is therefore well justified in terms of impact and societal benefit. Crime analysis methods can reveal problem sets through traditional techniques, e.g. ‘hotspotting’, which can then be further illuminated through intelligence methodologies – ultimately yielding specific recommendations for action. This chapter discusses a model that is demonstrably effective across different criminal domains. The model combines an all-source approach to forensic intelligence (FORINT), integrated into which is a geographic profiling (GP) capability. This presents an efficacious law enforcement tool to counter serial offending. FORINT draws upon scientific and technical information and expertise in addition to criminal indices, highlighting convergences (e.g. of recovered physical traces) between individual cases. Linkage analysis can be weighted through crime analytic approaches (e.g. diagnosticity of a particular method-of-entry modus operandi). Once a crime series is identified, spatiotemporal factors can be analysed through GP, delineating a base of operations that can inform enquires, prioritisation and resource deployment. Outcomes range from target prioritisation at the tactical level, through to recommendations for disruption/deterrence at a strategic level.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    A search of terms such as ‘serial burglar’ or ‘serial rapist’ in the Google Books Ngram Viewer (http://books.google.com/ngrams, accessed February 2021) indicates that the terms postdate and remain less prevalent (by orders of magnitude) than ‘serial killer’.

  2. 2.

    This is a contentious topic and it is noted that there are also arguments e.g. that ‘serial’ should be defined in psychological terms, see KOCSIS, R. & IRWIN, H. 1998. The psychological profile of serial offenders and a redefinition of the misnomer of serial crime. Psychiatry, Psychology and Law, 5, 197–213. Further, Nelson (2015) define ‘prolific offenders’ as those with four or more contacts with the criminal justice system in a two-year period. This definition however does not make allowance for those serial offenders who have been arrested once.

  3. 3.

    We use the term ‘disruption’; this reflects our focus on stopping the offending. Disruption is taken in a broad sense, and may be effected through traditional law enforcement actions such as arrest and criminal prosecution, or through diversion, or the deregistration of a business etc.

  4. 4.

    One zettabyte, ZB, is one sextillion (or 1021) bytes.

  5. 5.

    This is particularly true of the Australian Federal Police model, which – insofar as its output includes explicit provision of recommendations – is more aligned to the American (cf. Anglo) conception of intelligence.

  6. 6.

    It is acknowledged offenders may also modify aspects of behaviours over the course of a crime series.

  7. 7.

    Advantageously, Bayesian methods will be familiar to most forensics practitioners, with many types of findings expressed in terms of likelihood ratios.

  8. 8.

    Here we use the terms interchangeably, although distinctions exist from simply linguistic terms to perspectives on the nature of the field, see ROUX, C., CRISPINO, F. & RIBAUX, O. 2012. From Forensics to Forensic Science. Current Issues in Criminal Justice, 24, 7–24.

  9. 9.

    The search base is the anchor point of a criminal’s activities. It is often their residence, but can also be their work site, a past residence, or a social location such as a bar or restaurant.

  10. 10.

    Even explaining the intelligence cycle, SATs and the all-source approach has been reassuring to forensic scientists.

  11. 11.

    An ontology is a set of categories of objects/ideas along with certain interrelationships; it is not a linguistic object but is dependent on natural language and word senses. For example see HIRST, G. 2009. Ontology and the Lexicon. In: STAAB, S. & STUDER, R. (eds.) Handbook on Ontologies. Berlin, Germany: Springer-Verlag. It is acknowledged that an ontology may differ from a data schema but here we treat the terms quite interchangeably USCHOLD, M. 2015. Ontology and database schema: What’s the difference? Applied Ontology, 10, 243–258.

  12. 12.

    We do not advocate any particular software, and note that others exist which may better suit a given agency.

  13. 13.

    Mapping and the use of geographic information systems (GIS) are a core element of crime analysis. Crime mapping refers to the spatial analysis of crime and disorder problems, and GIS are computer-based tools used to collate, visualise and analyse spatial (and aspatial) information.

  14. 14.

    While a project may be planned with the intent to utilise GPA, there are instances when the added value is limited. For instance, the authors explored a series of bombings linked through FORINT (including technical signatures); however, the bombings (while linked) were widely dispersed and attributable to multiple actors thus GPA did not provide a major value-add. Of course, if it was not a priori clear from the FORINT analysis that multiple geographically dispersed actors were involved, GPA analysis would have suggested this.

  15. 15.

    This stage is commenced after linkage analysis is complete and selection for analysis is undertaken; the latter may include, e.g. exclusion of incidents that exhibit interdependencies.

  16. 16.

    Note that the material has been anonymised/modified to protect the identities and locations of victims, but is representative of routine casework.

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Taylor, M., Marsden, A. (2022). Integration of Geographic Profiling with Forensic Intelligence to Target Serial Crime. In: Bland, M., Ariel, B., Ridgeon, N. (eds) The Crime Analyst's Companion. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-94364-6_11

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