Abstract
The world is seemingly moving into a new “Cold War.” A key question is whether China and Russia will firmly stand together against the United States in a formal alliance. By examining the evolution of the Sino-Russian partnership after the Cold War, this chapter systematically explores the trajectory of the Sino-Russian relationship against the background of US unipolarity. It argues that despite the ideological, material, and strategic differences between the two nations, the convergence of threat perceptions regarding the United States has pushed China and Russia toward a “soft alliance” against the United States particularly after the Ukraine crisis. The prolonged US-China trade war, uncertainty over Ukraine, and new challenges from the pandemic for the US leadership will lead to a more complex future for China-Russia relations, which will largely depend on the policy dynamics of the United States and European countries toward China and Russia in the post-COVID-19 world.
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Notes
- 1.
There has been constant reference to the Cold War analogy in the policy and academic world. However, there are also scholars who clearly point out that this Cold War with China is not the same as the original one with Russia (the Soviet Union), because Russian power was never so close to America’s and the economies of China and the US (as well as the rest of the world) have never been so interconnected. For the new Cold War discussions, please see Tisdall (2021) and Rachman (2021).
- 2.
The Trump administration’s policy toward Russia presents a more complicated picture than the one documented by media reports. However, the general tone from Trump was conciliatory toward Russia from the beginning, although it changed to more confrontational after the relevant Russian collusion investigations.
- 3.
Ukrainian President Zelensky signed decree No. 117/2021 on March 24, 2021, making the retaking of Crimea official Ukraine policy, and also starting military preparations.
- 4.
As MacKinnon (2021b) points out, “The reason for the build-up remains unclear, but experts point to domestic factors in Russia, Ukraine, and the United States.”
- 5.
NATO named Russia an existential threat and China a systemic threat. See Nikkei Asia (2021).
- 6.
See also Bloomberg News (2021).
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Feng, H. (2022). Partnering Up in the New Cold War? Explaining China-Russia Relations in the Post-Cold War Era. In: Yoder, B.K. (eds) The United States and Contemporary China-Russia Relations. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93982-3_4
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