Abstract
Aluminum is widely used in buildings, transportation, and home appliances. However, primary aluminum production is a resource-, energy-, and emission-intensive industrial process. At present, China is the world's largest producer of aluminum. Under China’s new national development pattern of the “internal–external dual cycle”, China’s aluminum industry (AID) future development may also need to be adjusted. This study combines material flow analysis, life cycle assessment and scenario analysis to investigate the potential of resource conservation, energy saving, and emission reduction for China's AID till 2030 under the transition of import and export trade. The results show that nearly 40% of China’s annual aluminum production entered the inventory in use in other parts of the world through trade between 2010 and 2017. In the business as usual (BAU) scenario, the bauxite consumption of China's AID will increase from 170 Tg in 2017 to 291 Tg in 2030, with an annual growth rate of 4.2%. Compared with the BAU scenario, the demand for bauxite in the two scenarios of reducing exports of aluminum products will be reduced by 27% (Scenarios A) and 47% (Scenarios B) in 2030, respectively. In addition, there are obvious benefits in terms of water saving, energy saving, and emission reduction under Scenarios A and Scenarios B. Therefore, promoting the transformation of imports and exports can effectively decrease the external dependence on bauxite of China's AID and is also an important means to achieve carbon peaking by 2030.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Cullen JM, Allwood JM (2013) Mapping the global flow of aluminum: from liquid aluminum to end-use goods. Environ Sci Technol 47(7):3057–3064
Liu G, Bangs CE, Müller DB (2013) Stock dynamics and emission pathways of the global aluminium cycle. Nat Clim Chang 3(4):338–342
Liu G, Müller DB (2013) Centennial evolution of aluminum in-use stocks on our aluminized planet. Environ Sci Technol 47(9):4882–4888
Maung KN, Yoshida T, Liu G et al (2017) Hashimoto S. Assessment of secondary aluminum reserves of nations. Resour Conserv Recycl 126:34–41
Liu G, Bangs C, Müller DB (2011) Unearthing potentials for decarbonizing the U.S. aluminum cycle. Environ Sci Technol 45(22):9515–22
Chen WQ (2018) Dynamic product-level analysis of in-use aluminum stocks in the United States. J Ind Ecol 22(6):1425–1435
Buchner H, Laner D, Rechberger H et al (2015) Dynamic material flow modeling: an effort to calibrate and validate aluminum stocks and flows in Austria. Environ Sci Technol 49(9):5546–5554
Buchner H, Laner D, Rechberger H et al (2014) In-depth analysis of aluminum flows in Austria as a basis to increase resource efficiency. Resour Conserv Recycl 93:112–123
Ciacci L, Chen W, Passarini F et al (2013) Historical evolution of anthropogenic aluminum stocks and flows in Italy. Resour Conserv Recycl 72:1–8
Dai M, Wang P, Chen W et al (2019) Scenario analysis of China’s aluminum cycle reveals the coming scrap age and the end of primary aluminum boom. J Clean Prod 226:793–804
Ding N, Yang J, Liu J (2016) Substance flow analysis of aluminum industry in mainland China. J Clean Prod 133:1167–1180
Yue Q, Wang H, Lu Z et al (2014) Analysis of anthropogenic aluminum cycle in China. Trans Nonferrous Met Soc China 24(4):1134–1144
Yue Q, Wang H, Lu Z (2012) Quantitative estimation of social stock for metals Al and Cu in China. Trans Nonferrous Met Soc China 22(7):1744–1752
Chen W, Shi L (2012) Analysis of aluminum stocks and flows in mainland China from 1950 to 2009: exploring the dynamics driving the rapid increase in China’s aluminum production. Resour Conserv Recycl 65:18–28
Wang J, Graedel T (2010) Aluminum in-use stocks in China: a bottom-up study. J Mater Cycles Waste Manag 12(1):66–82
Chen W, Shi L, Qian Y (2010) Substance flow analysis of aluminum in mainland China for 2001, 2004 and 2007: exploring its initial sources, eventual sinks and the pathways linking them. Resour Conserv Recycl 54(9):557–570
Yang Y, Guo Y, Zhu W et al (2019) Environmental impact assessment of China’s primary aluminum based on life cycle assessment. Trans Nonferrous Met Soc China 29(8):1784–1792
Farjana SH, Huda N, Mahmud M (2019) Impacts of aluminum production: A cradle to gate investigation using life-cycle assessment. Sci Total Environ 663:958–970
Zhang Y, Sun M, Hong J et al (2016) Environmental footprint of aluminum production in China. J Clean Prod 133:1242–1251
Nunez P, Jones S (2016) Cradle to gate: life cycle impact of primary aluminum production. Int J Life Cycle Assess 21(11):1594–1604
Guo Y, Yu Y, Ren H et al (2020) Scenario-based DEA assessment of energy-saving technological combinations in aluminum industry. J Clean Prod 260:121010
Li Q, Zhang W, Li H et al (2017) CO2 emission trends of China’s primary aluminum industry: a scenario analysis using system dynamics model. Energy Policy 105:225–235
Liu Z, Geng Y, Adams M et al (2016) Uncovering driving forces on greenhouse gas emissions in China’ aluminum industry from the perspective of life cycle analysis. Appl Energy 166:253–263
Hao H, Geng Y, Hang W (2016) GHG emissions from primary aluminum production in China: Regional disparity and policy implications. Appl Energy 166:264–272
Zhang W, Li H, Chen B et al (2015) CO2 emission and mitigation potential estimations of China’s primary aluminum industry. J Clean Prod 103:863–872
Elshkaki A, Lei S, Chen W (2020) Material-energy-water nexus: modelling the long term implications of aluminum demand and supply on global climate change up to 2050. Environ Res 181:108964
Li S, Zhang T, Niu L et al (2021) Analysis of the development scenarios and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China’s aluminum industry till 2030. J Clean Prod 290:125859
International Aluminum Institute (2021) Global material flow model. http://www.world-aluminium.org/publications/. Accessed 4 May 2021
National Bureau of Statistics of China (2021) China statistical yearbook. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj./ndsj/. Accessed 13 May 2021
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51874078 and 51874094).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2022 The Minerals, Metals & Materials Society
About this paper
Cite this paper
Li, S., Zhang, T. (2022). Assessing the Future Resource and Environmental Impacts of China's Aluminum Industry: Implications of Import and Export Transition. In: Lazou, A., Daehn, K., Fleuriault, C., Gökelma, M., Olivetti, E., Meskers, C. (eds) REWAS 2022: Developing Tomorrow’s Technical Cycles (Volume I). The Minerals, Metals & Materials Series. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-92563-5_41
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-92563-5_41
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-92562-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-92563-5
eBook Packages: Chemistry and Materials ScienceChemistry and Material Science (R0)