Quantitative Analysis of Mass Shootings in Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

This chapter puts forward the first quantitative assessment of attempted and completed mass shootings that arose in central and eastern Europe. Details on how variables were coded are provided followed by a descriptive overview of statistical tendencies of the five different stages of Cumulative Strain Theory as well as other factors including ideological motivation, the number/types of guns used to carry out an attack, and offender-related characteristics. Logistic regression is utilized to test four different hypotheses on the dependent variable of a mass shooting occurrence. In contrast to attempted mass shootings, completed mass shootings can be explained by two statistically significant models, both of which include significant coefficients of group grievance and suicide. The association of the five stages of Cumulative Strain Theory is not significant with the occurrence of mass shootings in CEE states, but these five stages are still nevertheless present in both statistically significant models. The odds of a mass shooting occurring (in comparison to an attempted mass shooting) are nearly four times greater in cases where offenders took their own lives at the scene of the attack. Likewise, when offenders were motivated by holding a grievance against a particular societal group, the odds of a mass shooting occurring were greater nearly one-fold.