Trends in Population and Socioeconomic Development in Southeast Asia

Abstract

Southeast Asia is composed of 631.7 million people (World Bank in Health nutrition and population statistics, 2015) spread across 11 countries that lie east of the Indian continent and south of China. Geographically, insular Southeast Asia includes Brunei, Timor-Leste (East Timor), Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore while Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand, and Vietnam comprise mainland Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is composed of 631.7 million people (World Bank, 2015) spread across 11 countries that lie east of the Indian continent and south of China. Geographically, insular Southeast Asia includes Brunei, Timor-Leste (East Timor), Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore while Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand, and Vietnam comprise mainland Southeast Asia. Collectively, countries in the region share common features in terms of geography, history, and culture, yet diversity has always been part of the region’s defining features (Hirschman, 2001). This section shows changes in Southeast Asian countries’ populations from 1960 to 2015.

1 Population Structure of Southeast Asia

Population Size. Figure 2.1 shows that all countries have experienced substantial population growth (2–3 times) during this period. Indonesia has the largest population in the region which consistently grew since the 1960s. By 2015, Indonesia’s population was 257.6 million which accounts for 41% of the region’s population. Other countries with large populations are the Philippines (100.7 million), Vietnam (91.7 million), Thailand (68.0 million), Myanmar (53.9 million), Malaysia (30.3 million), and Cambodia (15.6 million) in 2015. The Philippines and Vietnam are also among the fastest-growing countries.

Fig. 2.1

Total population of Southeast Asian countries, 1960–2015. Source World Bank health nutrition and population statistics accessed on 25 October 2016

Small population countries are Brunei (423,000), Timor-Leste (1.2 million), Singapore (5.5 million), and Lao PDR (6.8 million), whose individual population sizes only account for 1% of the region’s aggregate population.

People Aged 65 and above. Referring to Fig. 2.2, there is a general increasing trend of the older adults population aged 65 and above in the region echoing the global ageing trend. From a range of 2.0%–4.7% of the population in 1960, most countries have seen a gradual increase between 0.5 and 3 percentage points in 2015. Exceptions are Singapore and Thailand which have seen steep increases in the 65 and above population by 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, in 55 years. For Timor-Leste, its elderly population has grown by 3% in just a decade, from 2005 to 2015. Singapore has experienced one of the world’s most rapid ageing trends as reflected from a change from 2% in 1960 to 12% in 2015 and a drastic jump of 2.7% in only five years, from 2010 to 2015. According to the recent World Health Organization (WHO) report on Ageing and Health (2015), the two main drivers of population ageing are the increasing life expectancy owing to the burgeoning socioeconomic development on a global scale, and the falling fertility rates. Most countries in this region, other than Singapore and Thailand, remain relatively young, especially Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Brunei.

Fig. 2.2

Percentage of total population aged 65 and above in Southeast Asia, 1960–2015. Source United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, accessed on 6 January 2017

Old-age dependency ratio. The World Bank defines the old-age dependency ratio (OADR) as the ratio of older dependents (people older than 64) to the working-age population (15–64). Data shown are the change in the proportion of dependents per 100 working-age population. It should be noted, however, that while OADR is a common measure used to determine the dependency of older people to the working-age population, using this indicator in Southeast Asia where the context of ageing in terms of retirement and pension schemes is different from Europe, may render an inaccurate picture of old-age dependency ratio in the region. Besides, OADR is an outdated and misleading indicator as these days a large number of those who are older than 64 are in good health and remain productive in the labour force or in other ways.

Figure 2.3 indicates that an increase over time with Singapore and Thailand showing the most rapid growth. In 2015, OADR is highest in Singapore (16.1) and Thailand (14.6) implying that compared with other countries in Southeast Asia, the working-age population in these two countries will bear the most strain in trying to support their older population. OADRs in these countries are higher than the world average of 12.6. Excluding Timor-Leste which has an OADR of 10.7, the rest of Southeast Asia have a gradual growth and OADRs below 10 in 2015.

Fig. 2.3

Old-age dependency ratio in Southeast Asia, 1950–2015. Source United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, accessed on 6 January 2017

Child dependency ratio. Conversely, the child dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–14 to the population aged 15–64 and presented as the number of dependents per 100 persons of working age (15–64).

Figure 2.4 shows that the child dependency ratio in the region has been declining in all countries except Timor-Leste, where the child dependency ratio has recently increased from 75.8 in 2010 to 81.5 in 2015, which is the highest in Southeast Asia. The rest of the Southeast Asian countries showed a decline in child dependency ratios from 1980 onwards, the time when they started experiencing fertility decline. Singapore’s significant decline started a decade earlier, from 67 in 1970 to 39.7 in 1980. By 2015, Singapore’s child dependency ratio reached 24.7 and was the lowest in the region reflecting its early and rapid decline in fertility rate.

Fig. 2.4

Child dependency ratio in Southeast Asia, 1950–2015. Source United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, accessed on 17 March 2017

Aside from Timor-Leste, the rest of Southeast Asia have child dependency ratios lower than 60 but countries such as Lao PDR, the Philippines, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Indonesia have rates that are higher than the world average of 39.7 and Southeast Asia’s average of 39.3.

The proportion of the oldest-old Population. The proportion of oldest old, or those 80 years and above, requires a significantly higher level of healthcare, especially long-term care, due to a more dramatic decline in physical and cognitive functioning. Thus, its increase warrants special attention. It has been on a gradual rise in Southeast Asia for the past 60 years (Fig. 2.5). Notable exceptions from this trend are Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam where the number of people over 80 years old has been rising in exponential proportions. In Singapore for example, the percentage of the oldest old has risen from 0.5% in 1980 to 2.4% in 2015 representing an almost quadruple increase in 35 years. A similar rapid rise is also seen in Thailand and Vietnam. Meanwhile, the rest of the countries remained below 1% in 2015, from below 0.5% in 1950. It should be noted that countries should be prepared as the ageing trend will be rapid in the next few decades due to the sharp decline in fertility and many of the countries in this region may not have adequate financial resources or infrastructure ready for caring for a fast growing group of older adults.

Fig. 2.5

Proportion of oldest old in Southeast Asia, 1950–2015. Source United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, accessed on 17 March 2017

Life expectancy. The United Nations defines life expectancy at birth as the number of years a newborn infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life.

Looking more closely at life expectancy in Southeast Asia in Fig. 2.6, countries in Southeast Asia have made significant progress in improving life expectancies at birth from about 33–65 years in 1960 to about 65–82 years in 2015. Timor-Leste in particular has more than doubled its life expectancy from 33.7 years in 1960 to 75.6 in 2015. Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, and Indonesia have also increased their life expectancy at birth by more than 20 years. Except for deviations in the 1970s and early 1980s in Cambodia caused by the genocide and Timor-Leste caused by the Indonesian invasion of East Timor respectively, life expectancies in all countries have consistently risen in the past 45 years.

Fig. 2.6

Life expectancy at birth in Southeast Asia, 1960–2015. Source World Bank, World Development Indicators accessed on 6 January 2017. Note Data are from 2014

In 2015, Singapore has the highest life expectancy at 82.6 years and is the only country to have a life expectancy above 80 years, followed by Brunei at 78.8 years. This corresponds to the high levels of economic and technological developments that Brunei and Singapore have experienced being the wealthiest in the region, which has resulted in more people living into adulthood, thereby increasing life expectancy. Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam have relatively high life expectancies at 74.7, 74.4, and 75.6 years, respectively, in 2015. Within the entire region in 2015, Myanmar has the lowest life expectancy at 65.9 years. Lao PDR has a similar level of life expectancy.

2 Population Density

In terms of population density, countries in the region are generally becoming more densely populated although Vietnam, Thailand, and Myanmar have shown indications that the rise in population density seems to be slowing recently.

Singapore is the most densely populated country, and with the most rapid rate of increase over time, in the region. In 2015, it has approximately 7,828 people per square kilometre (see Fig. 2.7a). This is because despite the country’s relatively small population size when compared with its regional counterparts, Singapore is the smallest country in Southeast Asia with a total land area of 707 square kilometres and closely resembles the size of Indonesia’s and Philippines’ capital cities of Jakarta and Manila. Its population density grew rapidly from the 1960s until the current period, matching the rapid growth of its economy and development.

Fig. 2.7

a Population density of Southeast Asian countries, 1960–2015, b population density of Southeast Asian countries excluding Singapore, 1960–2015. Source World Bank, World Development Indicators accessed on 01 December 2016

The Philippines and Vietnam are also densely populated with approximately 337 and 295 people per square kilometre in 2015 (see Fig. 2.7b). These numbers are notably higher than the population density of the rest of the countries in the region. Laos PDR is the most sparsely populated country.

3 Level of Economic Development

Looking at GDP per capita as an indicator of economic development, Fig. 2.8a shows that countries in Southeast Asia are on an upward trend for the past twenty-five years with some countries progressing more rapidly than others. Singapore and Brunei are the wealthiest in the region with GDPs per capita of US$80,000 and $60,000, respectively, in 2015. GDP per capita in these countries is significantly higher than the OECD average of US$40,000. Singapore’s GDP per capita enjoyed the sharpest increase, more than doubled in the past two decades, while Brunei’s GDP per capita has been on a gradual decline since 1995. Malaysia and Thailand also experienced accelerated growth in the last two decades with GDPs per capita growing by more than 100%, jumping above ASEAN’s¹ average albeit still lower than the OECD’s average. In 1992, these four countries together with the Philippines and Indonesia (known as the ASEAN 6) established the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement which allowed for low or no-tariff trade within the region. Figure 2.8b shows that under the ASEAN 6, Indonesia had the fastest growth, only the Philippines and Indonesia have GDPs per capita that are below the ASEAN average although Indonesia’s GDP also doubled from US$4,477 in 1990 to US$10,385 in 2015, compared to the Philippines’ GDP per capita which only grew by 73% within the same period. Recently, Vietnam, Lao PDR, and Cambodia are also experiencing steady growth in GDP per capita while Timor-Leste is trailing behind.

Fig. 2.8

a GDP per capita of Southeast Asian countries, 1990–2015, b GDP per capita of Southeast Asian countries excluding Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand, 1990–2015. Source World Bank, World Development Indicators accessed on 01 December 2016. Note Figures for GDP PPP per capita are based on constant 2011 international $

Consistent with GDP per capita growth is the decline of poverty in the region. Figure 2.9 shows that at the turn of the century, Lao PDR, Cambodia, Thailand, and Timor-Leste still had poverty rates between 40 and 50%. But by 2010, the rates dropped to less than 30% and continued to decline till 2015. Timor-Leste is an exception where poverty rates grew from 36.3% in 2001 to 41.8% in 2014. Relatively little is known about Timor-Leste due to the availability and accuracy of the data; thus, it is difficult to interpret the trends in this country.

Fig. 2.9

Poverty headcount ratio of Southeast Asian countries at national poverty lines, 1995–2015. Source World Bank, World Development Indicators accessed on 01 December 2016. Note Data for Brunei, Myanmar, and Singapore not available

Dramatic reductions in poverty were observed in several countries. In Vietnam, poverty rates were cut by 35% in four years, and in Cambodia, rates went down by 65% in nine years. In addition, Thailand and Lao PDR experienced a drop in poverty rates by 75% and 41%, respectively, within fifteen years. In comparison, poverty reduction occurred more gradually in Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Beyond 2010, Malaysia had the lowest poverty rate in the region (excluding Singapore). Timor-Leste had the highest poverty rate which poses a tremendous challenge to meet the development goals with increasing demand for schools, jobs, health, food, and other infrastructure facilities.

4 Education

Southeast Asia has had substantial improvements in education. Looking at the gross tertiary-level enrolment rates in Fig. 2.10a, we see that except for the Philippines which already had a 17.6% tertiary enrolment rate in 1970, all of Southeast Asia started with a 5% tertiary enrolment rate in 1970 before jumping to more than 30% by 2015, close to the world average of 34.5% (World Bank, 2014a), with significant increases mostly observed in the middle of the 1990s. The countries leading this trend are Singapore and Thailand where tertiary enrolment rates surged to 89.5% and 52.5% in 2015, respectively from below 10%.

Fig. 2.10

a Gross tertiary enrolment ratio in Southeast Asia for both sexes, 1970–2015, b gross tertiary enrolment ratio for females in Southeast Asia, 1970–2015. Source World Bank, World Development Indicators accessed on 01 December 2016 except for Singapore. Data for Singapore are from http://data.gov.sg, accessed on 7 December 2016. Note Data not available for Malaysia

The Philippines on the other hand moved at a slower pace from a 17% enrolment rate in the 1970s to 35% in 2015. Lao PDR has the least number of people going to the tertiary level with just a 17% enrolment rate in 2015. Its rates also show signs of stalling since 2010. One notable trend in the chart is the decline in tertiary enrolment for Malaysia in 2015. From 4% in 1980, Malaysia’s enrolment ratio rose to 37% in 2010 but went down to 29.7% in 2015.

Achievements in women’s education in the region mirror the general pattern of tertiary enrolment for both genders (Fig. 2.10b). The ratio of women reaching the tertiary level is on an upward trend with Singapore and Thailand rising faster than the rest of the countries in the region. Singapore has the highest tertiary enrolment ratio at 94.5%, almost thrice the ratio of most countries in Southeast Asia. It also showed the most dramatic improvement, rising from 6.48% in 1970 to its current rate, highlighting an increase of more than 1200% in 45 years. Figure 2.10b also shows that generally, female enrolment at the tertiary level is higher than the enrolment ratio for both genders with differences that could go as much as 8 percentage points such as in Brunei where the female tertiary enrolment rate is 40.1% compared to both gender’s enrolment rate at 31.7%. The majority of the countries’ female enrolment ratios are also above 30%, close to the world and East Asia’s average of 35% and significantly higher than South Asia’s average of 21% (World Bank, 2014b).

5 Female Labour Force Participation

With regard to women’s participation in the workforce, two general groupings tend to manifest: the CLMV² and ASEAN-6 although Timor-Leste and Thailand are the outliers in those groupings (Fig. 2.11). Starting from 76 to 84% rates in the 1990s, about 80% of working-age women in CLMV countries participated in the labour force. Booth (2016) suggested that the unusually high female participation rates in these countries are rooted in their socialist past which compelled women to join the workforce, coupled with high mortality rates among men during the Indochina wars. High participation rates were carried over in the 1990s with the creation of more employment opportunities in the labour-intensive manufacturing and service sectors (p. 182).

Fig. 2.11

Female labour force participation rate in Southeast Asia, 1990–2015. Source World Bank, World Development Indicators accessed on 01 December 2016

ASEAN-6 countries have lower female labour force participation rates and the numbers are more heterogeneous ranging from 47 to 65% in 2015. Participation rates in ASEAN-6 countries are also more comparable to the world average of 50%, OECD average of 63%, and East Asia and the Pacific’s average of 61%. In the whole of Southeast Asia, Cambodia has the highest FLFPR at 82% while Timor-Leste has the lowest at 25%. Collectively, Southeast Asian women are actively participating in the labour force compared with South Asia where only a third of working-age women do so.

6 Gender Inequality Index (GII)

The Gender Inequality Index (GII) is a composite measure of gender inequality using three dimensions: reproductive health, (political) empowerment, and the labour market. A lower GII value is indicative of lesser inequality between women and men. As shown in Fig. 2.12, gender inequality in Southeast Asian countries has generally decreased over the past 20 years, with the largest decreases observed for Cambodia and Singapore. The data for Lao PDR and Myanmar are only available from the years 2000 and 2010, respectively. Singapore has consistently had the lowest GII across 20 years, from 0.25 in 1995 and a brief increase to 0.27 in 2000, which followed a rapid decrease to 0.07 in 2015. Singapore experienced the least gender inequality not solely in the region but is among the lowest globally and ranked 5th in 2015 according to the United Nations Human Development Report, jointly with Denmark (Programme, 2016).

Fig. 2.12

Gender Inequality Index (GII) in Southeast Asia, 1990–2015. Source United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Data accessed on 05 May 2017. Note No information available for Brunei and Timor-Leste. Information on Lao PDR and Myanmar only available from 2000 to 2010 respectively

Although Cambodia is still experiencing one of the highest GII values in Southeast Asia, the rate of decline has been comparable to Singapore with a decrease of 0.18 over 2 decades, from 0.66 in 1995 to 0.48 in 2015. In contrast, the GII in the Philippines was considerably lower at 0.48 in 1995 compared to Cambodia, however, inequality in the former country decreased at a much slower pace to 0.44 in 2015. Indonesia and Lao PDR follow closely behind Cambodia and are decreasing at similar rates over the years, from 0.57 in 2000 to 0.47 in 2015.

The gender inequality trends for Thailand and Vietnam over the years differ from the rest of the Southeast Asian countries, as recent increases in inequality have been observed. Thailand’s GII declined from 0.40 in 1995 to 0.32 in 2010 but increased to 0.37 in 2015. Similarly, the GII in Vietnam decreased from 0.38 in 1995 to 0.32 in 2005 but gradually increased over the next decade to 0.34 in 2015. The reasons for these increases are not clear and warrant further investigation.