Abstract
The Nankai-Tonankai Trough is the primary source region for mega-thrust subduction earthquakes in Japan. In this chapter, a case study for a coastal town in western Japan is presented to assess the earthquake-tsunami risks due to the future Nankai-Tonankai mega-thrust subduction event using a novel earthquake-tsunami risk model. The multi-hazard risk model incorporates stochastic rupture sources, spatially correlated ground motion fields, tsunami inundation simulations, detailed building portfolio data, seismic and tsunami fragility models, and building damage cost estimation. It produces the multi-hazard and single-hazard loss distributions, accompanied by detailed earthquake rupture scenarios, shaking-tsunami hazard intensity distributions, and building damage distributions. Importantly, the new multi-hazard tool facilitates the identification of critical multi-hazard loss scenarios and produces integrated hazard-risk maps that are particularly useful for disaster risk reduction and management purposes.
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Acknowledgements
The work was supported by the Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2017-006), the Canada Research Chair program (950-232015), the NSERC Discovery Grant (RGPIN-2019-05898), and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Joint Research Project (19039901-000829). The tsunami simulations were performed using Blue Crystal Phase 3, which was supported by the Advanced Computing Research Centre of the University of Bristol.
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Goda, K., De Risi, R., De Luca, F., Muhammad, A., Yasuda, T., Mori, N. (2022). Earthquake-Tsunami Risk Assessment and Critical Multi-hazard Loss Scenarios: A Case Study in Japan Under the Nankai-Tonankai Mega-Thrust. In: Stewart, M.G., Rosowsky, D.V. (eds) Engineering for Extremes. Springer Tracts in Civil Engineering . Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85018-0_11
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