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Simulating Transitions to Agriculture in Prehistory pp 195–224Cite as

“Digital Proxies” for Validating Models of Past Socio-ecological Systems in the Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics Project

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Part of the book series: Computational Social Sciences ((SIPA))

Abstract

All representations of the human past are models, whether they are in the form of narratives, equations, or computer algorithms. While we can never know the “true” past, archaeologists seek to create more reliable and useful models of the dynamics of ancient lives and societies. One of the most widely accepted ways to scientifically establish a model’s validity is to compare its results or predictions against observable, empirical, data. However, most archaeological models deal with richly dynamic, living human behavior, social relationships, and interactions with the environment, while the archaeological and associated paleoecological records are composed of fragmentary, altered, static, and discarded material culture; sediments and soils; and dead plant and animal remains. This apparent incommensurability between archaeological models and the empirical data needed to validate them has long created significant challenges for establishing the credibility of archaeological explanation. In spite of ongoing advances in data collection and analysis methods, we cannot change the nature of the archaeological record. But we can modify models to generate outputs more directly comparable with this record. The Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics Project (MedLanD) has created a sophisticated computational laboratory to simulate long-term dynamics of agropastoral land use and landscape evolution. To better evaluate these simulation models, we also have developed a validation instrument that creates a “digital proxy” record based on model results. The digital proxy is analogous to extracting a digital core at specified points in the gridded, digital landscape. It simulates the accumulation over time of a proxy-like record for modeled human land use, vegetation, landscape fire, and surface processes. Digital proxy “cores” can be compared directly with empirical samples taken from analogous points in real-world landscapes, improving our ability to validate complex models. We present an overview of our digital proxy modeling method and a test case of comparing digital and empirical data from locales in Mediterranean Spain.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by National Science Foundation: grants BCS-410269, DEB-1313727; DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Palaeosciences; Arizona State University School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Center for Social Dynamics & Complexity, School of Earth and Space Exploration; Universitat de València, Departament de Prehistòria, Arqueologia i Història Antiga; San Diego State University, Department of Anthropology; University of Witswaterand, Evolutionary Studies Institute; and the GRASS GIS Development Team.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Human Evolution and Social Change, School of Complex Adaptive Systems, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

    C. Michael Barton

  2. Department of Anthropology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA

    Isaac I. T. Ullah

  3. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research and School of Geography, Development and Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA

    Nicolas Gauthier

  4. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA

    Nicolas Gauthier

  5. Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

    Nicolas Gauthier

  6. School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

    Nari Miller & Arjun Heimsath

  7. USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Center for Forest Disturbance Science, Athens, GA, USA

    Grant Snitker

  8. Department of Anthropology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA

    Grant Snitker

  9. ERAAUB, Departament d’Història i Arqueologia, Facultat de Geografia i Història, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

    Irene Esteban-Alamá

  10. Evolutionary Studies Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

    Irene Esteban-Alamá

  11. Grup d’investigació PREMEDOC, Departament de Prehistòria, Arqueologia i Història Antiga, Universitat de València, València, Spain

    Joan Bernabeu Aubán

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  1. C. Michael Barton
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  4. Nari Miller
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  5. Grant Snitker
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  6. Irene Esteban-Alamá
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  8. Arjun Heimsath
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Correspondence to C. Michael Barton .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Geografía e Historia, Universidad de la Laguna San Cristóbal de la Laguna, Santa Cruz, Spain

    Salvador Pardo-Gordó

  2. School of Complex Adaptive Systems, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

    Sean Bergin

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Barton, C.M. et al. (2021). “Digital Proxies” for Validating Models of Past Socio-ecological Systems in the Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics Project. In: Pardo-Gordó, S., Bergin, S. (eds) Simulating Transitions to Agriculture in Prehistory . Computational Social Sciences(). Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-83643-6_10

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-83643-6_10

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