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Part of the book series: Law, Governance and Technology Series ((ISDP,volume 46))

Abstract

The current chapter analyzes the main types of expectations and risks from AI. It focuses on the variety of fears, which have emerged mainly because of the prospect of AGI and of ASI and the potential surpassing of human intelligence. It also addresses some of the expectations from AGI and ASI again, reaching the level of immortality. It also examines the social and economic implications of AI in the course of the 4th industrial revolution. The goal of the chapter is to enlighten about the potential impact of AI, justifying the need for binding legal regulation of AI.

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Notes

  1. 1.

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  2. 2.

    Chris Johnston, “Artificial intelligence ‘judge’ developed by UCL computer scientists,” The Guardian, Oct. 24, 2016, (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/24/artificial-intelligence-judge-university-college-london-computer-scientists).

    Gaëtan Hadjeres & François Pachet, “DeepBach: a Steerable Model for Bach chorales generation” (Dec. 3, 2016) at 1, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.01010v1.pdf.

    Morgane Tual, “Intelligence artificielle: quand la machine imite l'artiste” [Artificial intelligence: when the machine imitates the artist], Le Monde, Sept. 8, 2015, http://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/article/2015/09/08/intelligence-artificielle-les-machines-peuventelles-etre-creatives_4749254_4408996.html.

    Allison Linn, “Microsoft Researchers Win ImageNet Computer Vision Challenge,” Next at Microsoft, December 10, 2015, https://blogs.microsoft.com/next/2015/12/10/microsoft-researchers-win-imagenet-computer-vision-challenge/;

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    Matt Burgess, “Microsoft’s AI Can Detect Your Emotions (but Only If You’re Angry),” Wired UK, 2015, http://www.wired.co.uk/article/microsoft-predict-emotions-artificial-intelligence;

    Hyacinth Mascarenhas, “Associated Press to Expand Its Sports Coverage by Using AI to Write Minor League Baseball Articles,” International Business Times UK, July 5, 2016, http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/associated-press-expand-its-sports-coverage-by-using-ai-write-minor-league-baseball-articles-1568804.; HAL 90210, “This Is What Happens When an AI-Written Screenplay Is Made into a Film,” The Guardian, June 10, 2016, sec. Technology, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/10/artificial-intelligence-screenplay-sunspring-silicon-valley-thomas-middleditch-ai.; Alex Marshall, “From Jingles to Pop Hits, A.I. Is Music to Some Ears,” The New York Times, January 22, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/22/arts/music/jukedeck-artificial-intelligence-songwriting.html.

  3. 3.

    Hassett (2000), p. 1226.

  4. 4.

    Noorman and Johnson (2014), pp. 51, 52.

  5. 5.

    Singer (2009), p. 5.

  6. 6.

    “The mechanization of well defined processes, in which routine tasks are translated into some formalized structure that allows human operators to delegate some level of control to an automated system”.

    Sheridan and Verplank (1978), pp. 6–12.

  7. 7.

    Nick Bostrom & Milan M. IRKOVI, Introduction, in global catastrophic risks 25 (Nick Bostrom & Milan M. #irkovi#, eds., 2008).

  8. 8.

    Martinez (2019), p. 1027.

  9. 9.

    Karppi and Crawford (2016), pp. 73, 74, 77.

  10. 10.

    Renn and Klinke (2004), p. S41.

    van Asselt and Renn (2011), pp. 431, 436–438.

    Spier (2011), p. 501.

  11. 11.

    Yudkowski (2008) pp. 308–345.

  12. 12.

    E. Yudkowski, Artificial Mysterious Intelligence, Lesswrong, (2008, December 7), (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fKofLyepu446zRgPP/artificial-mysterious-intelligence, Accessed 22-08-2019).

  13. 13.

    Yudkowski (2008), p. 313.

  14. 14.

    Bostrom (2002).

  15. 15.

    Good (1965), p. 33.

  16. 16.

    Tegmark; Baum et al. (2011), pp. 185–195.

  17. 17.

    Greg Satell, 3 Reasons to Believe the Singularity Is Near, Forbes (June 3, 2016 11:19 PM), http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/2016/06/03/3-reasons-to-believe-the-singularity-is-near/#298b88471cb;

    Deep Learning, NVIDIA, https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/category/deep-learning/ (last visited Nov. 23, 2016) (aggregating deep learning and AI research by Nvidia, a major hardware company); Facebook AI Research (FAIR),FACEBOOK (emphasis added), https://web.archive.org/web/20161116191404/https://research.facebook.com/ai (last visited Nov. 23, 2016) (“We’re committed to advancing the field of machine intelligence and developing technologies … . In the long term, we seek to understand intelligence and make intelligent machines. How will we accomplish all this? By building the best AI lab in the world.”); IBM Research: Artificial Intelligence, IBM (emphasis added), http://researcher.ibm.com/researcher/view_group.php?id=135 (last visited Nov. 23, 2016) (“Artificial Intelligence (AI) has a long history at IBM Research, dating back to the 1950s. By AI we mean anything that makes machines act more intelligently. Our work includes basic and applied research in machine learning, deep question answering, search and planning, knowledge representation, and cognitive architectures.”); Machine Intelligence, RES. GOOGLE, http://research.google.com/pubs/MachineIntelligence.html (last visited Nov. 23, 2016) (“Research at Google is at the forefront of innovation in Machine Intelligence, with active research exploring virtually all aspects of machine learning, including deep learning and more classical algorithms.”); The Race for AI: Google, Baidu, Intel, Apple in a Rush to Grab Artificial Intelligence Startups, CB Insights (July 21, 2017).

    Elon Musk (©ElonMusk), Twitter (Sept. 4, 2017, 2:33 AM), https://twitter.com/elonmusk/ status/904638455761612800;

    Dominic Basulto, Why Ray Kurzweil's Predictions Are Right 86% of the Time, Big Think, http://bigthink.com/endlessinnovation/why-ray-kurzweils-predictions-are-right-86-of-the-time (last visited Nov. 18, 2017).

  18. 18.

    In fact AI is in a constant procedure of high expectations or “spring times” and AI “winters”, between the first expectations the 40’s and the present. The main deficiency consisted of achievements in narrow areas but lack of success in the general one. One of the issues which have caused significant problems in the growth of AI is the “combinatorial explosion”, which can prove exhaustive search as non-efficient, when long theorems require proof. Combinatorial explosion requires different approaches, meaning “algorithms that exploit structure in the target domain and take advantage of prior knowledge by using heuristic search, planning, and flexible abstract representations—capabilities that were poorly developed in the early AI systems.”

    Such approach requires capacities which surpass the mere computational power of narrow artificial intelligence, especially of previous eras.

    As is examined below, recent developments “promise” to overcome this.

    Bostrom (2016), pp. 5–10.

  19. 19.

    Such aradigm is chess-playing, which was considered as the threshold between human and artificial intelligence, until it was surpassed.

    Newell et al. (1958), p. 320.

  20. 20.

    De Spiegeleire et al. (2017), p. 26.

  21. 21.

    Good (1965), pp. 31–88.

  22. 22.

    From a certain point of view this is the case with pre- modern era as well, not only regarding ancient Athens but since humans started distinguishing from other beings and the natural environment, projecting to Gods and Goddesses, human identities.

    Add Reference.

  23. 23.

    Yudkowski (2001), p. 2.

  24. 24.

    According to Thomas Sheridan automation is “the mechanization of well defined processes, in which routine tasks are translated into some formalized structure that allows human operators to delegate some level of control to an automated system.”

    Sheridan and Verplank (1978), pp. 6–12.

  25. 25.

    The shift from the automation to the autonomy is not always clear. The crucial element is whether human control is required and at what extent.

  26. 26.

    Kashyap Vyas, 7 Benefits of AI That Will Help Humanity, Not Harm It, Interesting Engineering, (2021, April 6), https://interestingengineering.com/7-ways-ai-will-help-humanity-not-harm-it.

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    Floridi et al. (2018), pp. 692–694.

  28. 28.

    Ferguson and Goldie (1999), pp. 56–58.

  29. 29.

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  30. 30.

    Schneider (2019), pp. 2–4.

  31. 31.

    Solomon Israel, Artificial intelligence, human brain to merge in 2030s, says futurist Kurzweil, CBC News, (2015, June 9), (https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/artificial-intelligence-human-brain-to-merge-in-2030s-says-futurist-kurzweil-1.3100124, Accessed 16-06-2020).

  32. 32.

    Leon R. Kass, Preventing a Brave New World: Why We Should Ban Human Cloning Now, The New Republic, May 21, 2001, at 22, available at http://www.thenewrepublic.com/052101/kass052101_print.html.

  33. 33.

    World Health Organization, Constitution, https://www.who.int/about/who-we-are/constitution.

  34. 34.

    Again we have to wonder what post- humanism will come to mean.

  35. 35.

    Pasquale (2002), pp. 86–88.

    “…reality is finally a quantity of material atoms and that significant discourse must relate itself directly or indirectly to reality so conceived.”

    Murdoch (1997), p. 287.

  36. 36.

    Horgan (1999), p. 201.

  37. 37.

    Taylor (1999), p. 24.

  38. 38.

    Purdy (1998), pp. 34–40.

  39. 39.

    “Strip something of its mortality, and how do you know what's left to see?”.

    Doty (1996), p. 85.

  40. 40.

    Stephen S. Hall, Racing Toward Immortality: The Recycled Generation, N.Y. Times, Jan. 30, 2000 (Magazine), at p. 31.

  41. 41.

    The term can be traced back to Julian Huxley back in 1957.

    Huxley (1957), pp. 13–17.

  42. 42.

    Ackerman (1990), p. 307.

  43. 43.

    Maria Trimarchi, Is it possible to digitize human consciousness?, HowStuffWorks, https://electronics.howstuffworks.com/future-tech/digitize-human-consciousness.htm, Accessed 12-06-2020).

  44. 44.

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  45. 45.

    Parkin, Back-up brains: The era of digital immortality, BBC Future, (2015, January 23rd), (https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20150122-the-secret-to-immortality, Accessed 12-06-2020).

  46. 46.

    Sandberg and Bostrom (2008), p. 7.

  47. 47.

    Sandberg and Bostrom (2008), p. 9.

  48. 48.

    As such are mentioned physicalism, or multiple realizability, Computability, Non-organicism, Scale separation, Component tractability, Simulation tractability, Brain-centeredness.

    Sandberg and Bostrom (2008), pp. 14–15.

  49. 49.

    Sandberg and Bostrom (2008), p. 15.

  50. 50.

    Bostrom (2014), p. 126.

  51. 51.

    Wiener (1960), pp. 1355–1358.

  52. 52.

    D. Galeon & C. Reedy, Kurzweil Claims That the Singularity Will Happen by 2045, Futurism (Oct. 5, 2017 http://futurism.com/kurzweil-claims-that-the-singularity-will-happen-by-2045/, Accessed 29-6-2018).

  53. 53.

    S. Hawking, M. Tegmark, S. Russell, and F. Wilczek, Transcending Complacency on Super intelligent Machines, Huffpost, (https://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-hawking/artificial-intelligence_b_5174265.html?ec_carp=3359844804041712164, Accessed 01-02-2019).

  54. 54.

    M. Tegmark, How to Get Empowered Not Overpowered by AI, Ted2018, (2018 April), (https://www.ted.com/talks/max_tegmark_how_to_get_empowered_not_overpowered_by_ai#t-477030. Accessed 26-07-2019).

  55. 55.

    Simon (2018), p. 34.

  56. 56.

    Xu et al. (2018), p. 90.

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  58. 58.

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  59. 59.

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  60. 60.

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  61. 61.

    Mathiason and Pierce (2017).

  62. 62.

    Wisskirchen et al. (2017), p. 12.

  63. 63.

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    AI Blog, Five Ways CIOs are Deploying AI, (https://www.artificial-intelligence.blog/news/five-ways-cios-are-deploying-ai, Accessed 28-04-2019).

  65. 65.

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    World Bank GRP., World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends 129 fig. 2.24 (2016), http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2016 [https://perma.cc/E76Q-QMAY].

  68. 68.

    Frey and Osborne (2017), pp. 254, 261.

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  70. 70.

    Accenture, Artificial intelligence is the future of growth, (https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insight-artificial-intelligence-future-growth, Accessed 20-04-2019).

  71. 71.

    PWC, The macroeconomic impact of artificial intelligence, at p. 3.

  72. 72.

    McKinsey, A Future that works: Automation, Employment and Productivity, (January 2017), at p. 5.

  73. 73.

    Alex Campolo et al., AI Now 2017 Report 3 (Andrew Selbst & Solon Barocas eds. 2017), https://ainowinstitute.org/AI_Now_2017_Report.pdf.

  74. 74.

    “The proportion of jobs threatened by automation in India is 69 percent, 77 percent in China and as high as 85 percent in Ethiopia.”

    Speech by World Bank President Jim Yong Kim: The World Bank Group’s Mission: To End Extreme Poverty, The World Bank (Oct. 3, 2016), http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/speech/2016/10/03/speech-by-world-bank-president-jimyong-kim-the-world-bank-groups-mission-to-end-extreme-poverty.

  75. 75.

    Ma et al. (2015).

  76. 76.

    Manyika et al. (2017), p. 14.

  77. 77.

    The Economist (2017), ‘Automatic for the people: How Germany’s Otto uses artificial intelligence’, 12 April 2017, https://www.economist.com/news/business/21720675-firm-using-algorithm-designed-cern-laboratory-how-germanys-otto-uses.

  78. 78.

    McKinsey, A Future that works: Automation, Employment and Productivity, at p. 15.

  79. 79.

    Autor (2015), pp. 3, 27.

  80. 80.

    Lehman (2015), p. 265, 280.

  81. 81.

    Chui et al. (2016).

  82. 82.

    Arntz et al. (2016), http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-migration-health/the-risk-of-automation-for-jobs-in-oecd-countries_5jlz9h56dvq7-en.

  83. 83.

    Cukier (2018), p. 36.

  84. 84.

    Herminia Ibarra, Hiring and Big Data: Those Who Could Be Left Behind. Harvard Bus. Rev. Blog Network, Dec. 3, 2013, available at http://blogs.hbr.org/2013/12/hiring-and-big-data-who-wins/?utm_source=Socialflow&utm_medium=Tweet&utm_campaign=Socialflow.

    Andrew Soergel, Robots Could Cut Labor Costs 16 Percent by 2025, U.S. News, Feb. 10, 2015, available at http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/02/10/robots-could-cut-international-labor-costs-16-percentby-2025-consulting-group-says.

  85. 85.

    J. Manyika, Technology, jobs, and the future of work, McKinsey Global Institute, (May 2017), (https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/technology-jobs-and-the-future-of-work, Accessed 23-04-2019).

  86. 86.

    Office of the President of the USA, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy, (2016, December 20) at p. 2, (https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/documents/Artificial-Intelligence-Automation-Economy.PDF, Accessed 24-04-2019).

  87. 87.

    The Dawn of Artificial Intelligence: Hearing Before the Subcomm. on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, 114th Cong. 14, (statement of Sen. Gary Peters).

  88. 88.

    H. Innis, Why AI Will Break Capitalism, Chatbots Magazine, (2016, June 12), (chatbotsmagazine.com/why-ai-will-break-capitalism-14a6ad2f76da, Accessed 20-04-2019).

  89. 89.

    Capital itself takes different meanings. As Fleissner explains, citing Ashford “The use of “capital… “includes land, animals, structures, and machines-- anything capable of being owned and employed in production. It does not include ‘financial capital,’ which [does not do work but rather] is a claim on, or ownership interest in, real capital.” This is consistent with the foundational economic theorists (including Smith, Ricardo, Marx, Marshal, Walras, and Keynes). This usage contrasts with the usage in financial economics in which “capital” usually means “financial capital.” However, many writers use a broader definition of capital that includes money, human capital, and refers to natural resources, physical capital, technology, corporate stock, knowledge, and/or anything else that can enhance an individual's capacity to perform economically useful work or generate income. This broader definition tends to confuse real capital assets (tools, machines, factories)--which, according to binary economics, do work--with financial capital (securities, bonds, notes, and shares)--which do not.”

    Fleissner, Inclusive capitalism based on binary economics and positive international human rights in the age of artificial intelligence, note 18;

    Ashford (2015), p. 27.

  90. 90.

    The term productive relations is adopted here from a Marxist perspective: “In the social production of their existence, men inevitably enter into definite relations, which are independent of their will, namely relations of production appropriate to a given stage in the development of their material forces of production. The totality of these relations of production constitutes the economic structure of society, the real foundation, on which arises a legal and political superstructure and to which correspond definite forms of social consciousness. The mode of production of material life conditions the general process of social, political and intellectual life. It is not the consciousness of men that determines their existence, but their social existence that determines their consciousness. At a certain stage of development, the material productive forces of society come into conflict with the existing relations of production or – this merely expresses the same thing in legal terms – with the property relations within the framework of which they have operated hitherto. From forms of development of the productive forces these relations turn into their fetters. Then begins an era of social revolution. The changes in the economic foundation lead sooner or later to the transformation of the whole immense superstructure.”

    Karl Marx, A Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy Preface, 1859, (https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1859/critique-pol-economy/preface.htm, Accessed 14-06-2020).

  91. 91.

    The Crypto Oracle, The Fourth Industrial Revolution: The Rise Of The Autonomous Economy.

  92. 92.

    J. Rodriguez, AI Has Not One, Not Two, but Many Centralization Problems, Hackernoon, (2018, June 26), (https://hackernoon.com/ai-has-not-one-not-two-but-many-centralization-problems-a5f0664361ed, Accessed 13-04-2019).

  93. 93.

    R. Pinto, Next Steps In The Integration Of Artificial Intelligence And The Blockchain, Forbes, (2018, October 9), (https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2018/10/09/next-steps-in-the-integration-of-artificial-intelligence-and-the-blockchain/#2b0cce483273, Accessed 14-04-2019);

    The Crypto Oracle, The Fourth Industrial Revolution: The Rise of the Autonomous Economy, (December 13, 2018), (https://medium.com/altcoin-magazine/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-the-rise-of-the-autonomous-economy-cfe0886ad8b3, Accessed 8-4-2019).

  94. 94.

    “The opening up of new markets, foreign or domestic, and the organizational development from the craft shop and factory to such concerns as U.S. Steel illustrate the process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one. This process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact about capitalism. It is what capitalism consists in and what every capitalist concern has got to live in ... Every piece of business strategy acquires its true significance only against the background of that process and within the situation created by it. It must be seen in its role in the perennial gale of creative destruction; it cannot be understood irrespective of it or, in fact, on the hypothesis that there is a perennial lull.”

    Schumpeter (1962), pp. 83–84.

  95. 95.

    Pfeffer et al. (2013), p. 98.

    Fleck et al. (2011), p. 57.

    Armenter (2015), p. 1.

    The Dawn of Artificial Intelligence: Hearing Before the Subcomm. on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, 114th Cong. 14 (2016) (statement of Eric Horvitz, Technical Fellow and Director, Microsoft Research-Redmond Lab, Microsoft Corp.).

  96. 96.

    Fleissner (2018), pp. 202–203.

  97. 97.

    Ashford (2014), pp. 179, 180.

  98. 98.

    Ashford (2009), p. 89.

  99. 99.

    UN Charter, Article 55.

  100. 100.

    Spiro (2003), pp. 1999, 2000, 2001.

  101. 101.

    U.N. Comm. on Econ., Soc. & Cultural Rts., General Comment No. 19: The Right to Social Security, U.N. Doc. E/C.12/GC/19 (Feb. 4, 2008).

  102. 102.

    U.N. GAOR, 41st Sess., 97th plen. mtg. at 3, U.N. Doc A/RES/41/128 (Dec. 4, 1986).

  103. 103.

    U.N. Doc A/RES/41/128.

  104. 104.

    World Conference on Human Rights, Vienna Declaration and Programme of Action, ¶10, U.N. Doc. A/CONF.157/23 (June 25, 1993).

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    U.N. Comm. on Econ., Soc. & Cultural Rts., General Comment No. 18: The Right to Work (Art. 6), E/C.12/GC/18 (Feb. 6, 2006).

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    Vandenhole (2003), pp. 377(3), 382, 403.

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Tzimas, T. (2021). The Expectations and Risks from AI. In: Legal and Ethical Challenges of Artificial Intelligence from an International Law Perspective. Law, Governance and Technology Series(), vol 46. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78585-7_2

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