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Development of a Water Security Index Incorporating Future Challenges

Part of the Climate Change Management book series (CCM)

Abstract

Climate change and population increase are worsening the problem of water security, one of the major challenges faced by society. Especially in agricultural regions, water security is crucial for achieving food security and improving livelihoods. The provision and sustainable management of water are key indicators for sustainable development. This chapter presents a Water Security Index constructed using the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework. Variables affecting water security are associated with 15 indicators distributed over four dimensions: “Resources”, which provides a measure of existing water quality and quantity; “Access and Use”, which considers the impact of population and access to existing resources; “Capacity”, which examines the factors influencing the efficient use of water; and “Sustainability”, which quantifies the impact of land use and management. The index is tested by applying it to a predominantly agricultural study area comprised of those parts of four neighboring provinces (Aydın, Denizli, Muğla and Uşak) in Turkey’s Aegean Region that account for around 80% of the Büyük Menderes Basin. Next, scenarios are constructed to explore the impacts of climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and population dynamics on regional water security. Under both scenarios, the region is expected to become heavily water stressed in the near future, with changing population dynamics exacerbating the problems associated with climate change. Because this index is generic in nature, it can be applied to other agricultural areas to assess water security at the provincial level. With specific information regarding resource use, access, capacity and sustainability of existing water resources, policymakers can use this index to construct guidelines for sustainable water management under future climatic and demographic conditions.

Keywords

  • Water security index
  • Climate change
  • Population increase

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Fig. 1

Adapted from OECD (1993)

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source: TUIK website (http://data.tuik.gov.tr)

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Correspondence to Irem Daloglu .

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Marangoz, D., Daloglu, I. (2022). Development of a Water Security Index Incorporating Future Challenges. In: Leal Filho, W., Manolas, E. (eds) Climate Change in the Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Region. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78566-6_15

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