Abstract
This chapter presents general conclusions based on integrating the theory and the results obtained from all methods. It also offers seven specific conclusions for each of the prosperity determinants considered.
Combining three main factors accounted for uneven socio-economic and institutional performance in Europe and the Americas. These factors are: 1. Religion: 1.1) Historical Protestantism and its positive influence on law, institutions, and language (highest performance); 1.2) anti-clericalism (medium-high performance); 1.3) Roman Catholicism or Orthodoxy (medium-low performance); 1.4) Syncretism (low performance). 2. Political non-religious influences: 2.1) Communism (low performance). 3. Geography and environment, which modulate overall performance.
Integrative conclusions are also called “meta-inferences” (Johnson, 2016). “A meta-inference can be defined as a conclusion generated through an integration of the inferences that have been obtained from the results of the qualitative and quantitative strands of a mixed methods study” (Teddlie and Tashakkori as cited in Stolz, 2017).
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Keywords
- Prosperity
- Competitiveness
- Corruption
- Meta-inferences
- Environment performance
- Legal traditions
- State religion
- Religious adherence
- Concordats
- Languages
- Ethnicities
Overall, the results of this study are remarkably consistent across methods and models. Its main findings may be summarised as follows:
-
(a)
Competitiveness:
The combination of the following factors induces competitiveness in Europe and the Americas: (1) high Environment Performance (EPI); (2) German legal origin; (3) the absence of a French legal origin and of a Concordat with the Roman See; (4) the absence of a socialist legal origin; (5) low proportion of Roman Catholicism or Orthodoxy.
-
(b)
Corruption:
The combination of the following factors causes high corruption in Europe and the Americas: (1) low Environment Performance (EPI); (2) Roman Catholicism as a state religion; (3) low adherence to Protestantism; (4) a Concordat with the Roman See; and (5) French legal origin.
Likewise, and consistent with the corresponding theory, the quantitative model on corruption (Sect. 15.3.2) corroborates a high correlation of prosperity, democracy, transparency, and Protestantism. The model thus fulfils empirical expectation 3.Footnote 1
The consistency of the theoretical framework (Part III) with the findings across methods (quantitative, QCA, case studies) confirms my hypotheses (Sect. 2.3 and empirical expectations 1 and 2). The following sections expand the conclusions per condition and empirical expectation.
1 Environment Performance Index (EPI)
The EPI is the most critical variable for explaining prosperity (GCI and CPI) differences. It correlates strongly with prosperity in the quantitative models, while QCA substantiated a direct and robust causal relation. In the quantitative part, the EPI helped to increase model fitness, while in QCA, it was that condition that was closest to being necessary. Removing EPI from the quantitative and QCA analyses considerably reduces the explanatory power of the respective models (e.g. Model 1, see Sect. 15.3.1.1.1). However, if EPI is removed, the remaining variables (or conditions) continue to be significant or still maintain their presence, thus yielding similar results (although with less fitness in the regression models, for instance). Thus, EPI explains most of the prosperity variability, whereas the other significant variables also play a vital role in modulating the outcome.
EPI robustness, as causal for prosperity, provides rich evidence in support of the “environment and prosperity theory” (Sachs, 2001; Diamond, 1997). Thus, my results confirm the inferences anticipated in the literature review, thus also fulfiling empirical expectation 12. Moreover, the case study on Switzerland found a particular relation between environmental factors (geography or topography) and competitiveness. Swiss cantons located in mountainous regions tend to exhibit lower competitiveness than non-mountainous ones. Flat topography may facilitate access and trade, for instance. Still, this alone does not explain why some Swiss mountainous cantons are more innovative per inhabitant than other, neighbouring countries (e.g. Austria or Italy).
2 Legal Traditions
The second variable most consistently related to prosperity (GCI and CPI) is legal origin. This is true of the corresponding quantitative models and also explains the QCA outcome of legal origin. German legal origin has a consistently positive effect (correlations and QCA), while QCA also identifies Scandinavian legal origin as positive in terms of competitiveness and transparency. The Protestant Reformation heavily influenced German and Scandinavian legal systems (Witte, 2002; Snyder, 2011; Berman, 2003; Sect. 8.3.4).
In contrast, Socialist and French legal origins negatively influence GCI and transparency (as confirmed by QCA and partly by correlations). Both legal origins have diminished the influence of the Church on state affairs. However, their impact as legal systems as a whole is detrimental to competitiveness and transparency compared to “Protestant” legal origins (German and Scandinavian). English legal origin appears to have neither a robustly positive nor a negative influence on prosperity. However, some scholars (La Porta et al., 2008) have reported a strong positive influence of English, German, and Scandinavian legal origins on institutions.
2.1 Legal Traditions, Religion, and Prosperity
My empirical results show a strong relationship between prosperity indicators (competitiveness and transparency) and various other indicators (legal origin, religious institutions, and denomination). Theoretically, my results are in line with the findings of La Porta et al. (1999, 2008) on legal origins; with Acemoglu and Johnson (2005) and Acemoglu and Robinson (2008, 2012) on institutions; and with Witte (2002) and Berman (2003) on the influence of religious denominations on law and institutions.
The underlying logic is that the Sola Scriptura principle of the Protestant Reformation influenced German, English, and Scandinavian legal origins (Witte, 2002; Doe & Sandberg, 2010; Manow & van Kersbergen, 2009). On the other hand, French legal origin stems from the French Revolution, which had strong secularising effects in Europe, but whose influence was not entirely “exported” overseas (e.g. to Spanish and Portuguese colonies in Latin America). Socialist legal origin originates in the Bolshevik Revolution and contains atheist elements (Miller 2012; Berman 2003). While all of these modern legal origins replaced medieval canon law, each borrowed certain of its elements to a different extent. Canon law owed more to Greek philosophy than to the Scriptures (Selling, 2018; Gula, 2002). However, canon law is still valid today, above all in the Roman Catholic Church-State, and especially in (but not limited to) countries under its direct influence.
The incorporation of several principles originating directly in the Holy Scriptures via the Protestant Reformation was one of the main triggers of change in medieval legislation codes (i.e. medieval canon law)—and thus in the institutions of Protestant countries (Witte, 2002).
The Protestant Reformation demanded that papacy’s far-reaching powers in medieval canon law be refuted. However, canon law could not be ousted entirely anywhere. Thus, certain aspects have been preserved (through indirect influence), although to a lower degree, even in Protestant countries such as the USA. In Lutheran territories, for instance, canon law was tested against the Holy Scriptures, and only those aspects that passed exacting scrutiny were upheld (Helmholz, 1992).
In theory, common law is one of the legal traditions exerting the least influence on Roman and canon law. This study, however, has shown that Scandinavian and especially German law (which in theory belong to Roman Civil Law) yield better results than common law countries. Protestant anti-clericalism has permeated both common law and German-Scandinavian legislations. The present QCA results help explain the different prosperity outcomes in terms of the greater heterogeneity of English common law countries, along with various other conditions: 1) EPI: English common law countries are located in distant geographies (and have dissimilar EPI rankings) from the British Isles and North America (high) to the Caribbean (low). In contrast, Scandinavian and German law countries are more EPI homogeneous (high) and share similar geographical/environmental conditions in northern Europe. 2)State religion: Common law countries have Protestant (e.g. UK), no (e.g. US), or even Catholic (e.g. Ireland) state religion. In turn, Scandinavian and German law countries have either Protestant or no state religion (i.e. absent Catholic state religion). 3) Ethnicities: Common law countries exhibit higher ethnical heterogeneity, ranging from mostly white (e.g. the British Isles and North America) to mostly black (e.g. Jamaica) ethnicities. In contrast, Scandinavian and German law countries are more homogeneous (i.e. mostly white ethnicities). The different ethnicities and their associated cultural attributes (e.g. informal institutions) may interfere in the implementation of formal codes (law) (Lambsdorff, 2006; Alesina et al., 2003; Alesina & Giuliano, 2015; Volonté, 2015) and in the syncretisation of religion (see the Cuban case).
The legal code of the French Revolution exhibits another pattern: It yields good results only if anti-clericalism is present. Countries with strong anticlerical movements such as France, Italy, Uruguay, or Chile provide better results than countries with a strong influence of the Roman Church-State on their legal and institutional systems (e.g. most Latin American countries).
One of the crucial elements determining prosperity differences in countries of French legal origin is the level of anti-clericalism adopted in legislation. Uruguay adopted the French legal code and boldly incorporated the secular-democratic principles descending from the French Revolution in its constitution and other institutions (e.g. education). Consequently, Uruguay is one of the highest-scoring Latin American countries in social indicators such as transparency (Transparency International, 2016), political rights, and civil liberties (Freedom House, 2016), and has achieved the highest social progress in Latin America (Porter et al., 2015), due partly to the persistence of such institutional arrangements.
In contrast, while Colombia also adopted the legal code of the French Revolution, until 1991 it completely neglected the anticlerical principles of this code by signing a Concordat and by implementing a series of denominational constitutions. Consequently, medieval extractive institutions have persisted, making Colombia one of the most inequitable and dangerous countries in the world to date.
Cuba, by comparison, adopted the socialist legal tradition. Moreover, the Cuban Revolution in the 1960s led to strong anti-clericalism (and atheism). Accordingly, Cuba has achieved higher than average levels of equality, literacy, and public health compared to other Latin American countries. While corruption is moderate, low social progress and highly restricted liberties (Porter et al., 2015) tip the balance towards an overall negative outcome.
The German legal tradition widely influenced Switzerland, although the Napoleonic code took root in some cantons (La Porta et al., 2008). The Swiss Constitution (1848) is profoundly anticlerical, but not atheist (e.g. its preamble invokes God). Its liberal-Protestant principles, combined with the country’s federalist structure, make Switzerland the most competitive country worldwide. Thus, the results for legal origin entirely fulfil empirical expectations 4, 5, 6, and 7.
3 State Religion
Quantitative analysis partly revealed that establishing Protestantism as a state religion has an almost twofold effect on competitiveness compared to a high Protestant population. This confirms the higher importance of religious institutions compared to the proportion of adherents. Also, the higher importance of state Protestantism over a Protestant population seems in line with the historical claim that no single Protestant-Catholic conflict resulted in a Protestant victory without state or external support (te Brake as cited in Nexon, 2011, p. 152). Historically, political leaders (including the pope) have more strongly influenced the institutionalisation of religion than theologians. Current adherence rates reflect such institutionalisation in many countries (Barro & McCleary, 2005).
Nonetheless, QCA has shown that establishing any state religion, including Protestantism, is detrimental to prosperity (GCI and transparency) in most cases. This seemingly contradictory result may explain the positive effects of separating church and state (secularisation) as an advance of Protestant state religion (e.g. Switzerland, USA; see Sect. 15.3.1.3). However, secularisation per se (e.g. French or socialist revolution) may not always lead to positive outcomes. This becomes clear when state religion results are analysed along with the results of the last condition (legal origin).
Together, both conclusions (about legal origin and state religion) corroborate empirical expectation 4. The reason is that legal origins commonly associated with Protestantism are positive for prosperity. English legal origin is the exception as its outcome seems to be neutral (considering the nuances previously discussed). On the other hand, French legal origin (typically associated with Roman Catholicism) negatively influences prosperity and transparency.
4 Religious Affiliation in the Population
Religious adherence (by denomination) is mostly negatively correlated with GCI or is insignificant in quantitative models. Especially consistent, however, are the negative correlations of Orthodox and Roman Catholic adherents with GCI. Protestant adherence is not conclusively correlated with GCI and exhibits a positive influence on transparency (for models, see Sect. 15.3). QCA also produces mixed results. Changes in magnitude, from one to two digits, in the Protestant population do not significantly change corruption levels, as shown by the two clusters of Latin American countries (for Truth Tables, see Appendix 4).
Therefore, the influence of a Protestant population is not one of the essential conditions (compared to state religion or legal origin, for instance). However, Barro and McCleary (2005) have stressed the importance of the proportion of religious adherents as directly triggering a state religion (whose effect on prosperity almost doubles that of the population). Consequently, although the direct influence of a Protestant population is not conclusive, it helps to build institutions that partially remove old hegemonic structures (e.g. feudal-hierarchical elitists from the medieval papalist monarchical order). This conclusion concurs with Woodberry (2012), who demonstrated the importance of the Protestant population in initiating democratic processes worldwide (except for Pentecostalism).
Also, the Swiss case study shows how liberals and Protestants closed ranks in the federal government to democratise the Catholic Church in Switzerland. Saying that, in Latin America, the Protestant population is not necessarily less corrupt than the Catholic one (Helmsdorff, 1996; Schäfer, 2006; Martin, 1999). This may be directly related to Woodberry’s findings, given that most Protestant growth in Latin America, Asia, and Africa generally comes from Pentecostalism. This, however, does not exert a positive social influence, unlike historical forms of Protestantism (Woodberry, 2012).
Another potential effect is that historically Protestant countries may become more emancipated than “new-world Protestant” ones profoundly influenced by Pentecostalism. Therefore, a Protestant population may be relevant when it can bring about institutional changes capable of decreasing the detrimental influence of institutional Roman Catholicism. While Protestant adherents might prove less important than deinstitutionalising the public sphere of the Roman Church, they may be needed to drive forward the latter process.
Denominational ties (proportion of adherents) are important modulators, but not as decisive as the legal (institutional) ties associated with religion. For example, Ireland and Austria are predominantly Roman Catholic countries; and yet, their competitiveness is higher than predominantly Roman Catholic Spain or Portugal (dominated by French law). Ireland shares common law (and the English language) with the United Kingdom, while Austria shares the German legal tradition (and the German language) with Germany. However, neither Catholic Ireland is as prosperous as Protestant Great Britain, nor is Catholic Austria as prosperous as mostly Protestant Germany.Footnote 2
These findings on religious adherents partly fulfil empirical expectation 9, as population mostly influences prosperity only indirectly. Direct influence is rather weak. However, these results do fulfil empirical expectation 10. The different Latin American clusters that formed due to slightly different proportions of Protestants do not exhibit significant differences in corruption outcomes (Appendix 4).
5 Concordats
The findings on concordats were highly consistent and confirmed a negative causal relation between Concordats with the Roman Catholic Church-State and prosperity (GCI and Transparency). This variable has proven decisive in case analysis, along with EPI, legal origin, and state religion. Therefore, empirical expectation 6 was fulfiled. Countries with valid concordats have implemented domestic legislation subject to canon and Roman law.
Concordats in Latin America have lawfully perpetuated hierarchical power relations, control over education, and other Church privileges. Thus, education, family, and social values are permeated by a relativistic Roman Catholic theology based on Aquinas and Aristotle. In practice, this means that central Roman Catholic values such as familialism, double standards, elitism, and a relativistic ethic pervade the institutions and culture of countries under Catholic influence. As shown, the obvious result is low prosperity (i.e. high corruption and low competitiveness).
Countries with Concordats and German legal origin—Germany and Austria—are the exceptions to the previous rule. The longstanding influence of anti-clericalism on law and institutions (Sect. 8.3.4) and on language (Sect. 11.1) ever since the sixteenth-century German Protestant Revolution has remained pervasive to this day. On the positive side, the persistence of anticlericalism may counteract some detrimental aspects of the Concordats in both countries.
Countries with a German legal origin (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) also have comparable geographical and environmental conditions. They are also highly competitive. Predominantly Roman Catholic Austria is the least prosperous of the three. Protestant Germany is more prosperous than Austria but less prosperous than Switzerland. Germany has a valid Concordat that Hitler signed with the Roman Church-State, Austria also has a Concordat, yet Switzerland has none. Evidence shows that Switzerland is the most prosperous of these three countries (see Sect. 16.3.1, Fig. 16.3; Supplementary Materials; and Truth Tables 9 and 11 in Appendix 4.3.3). Likewise, another contributing factor that is a common denominator in the two most competitive countries (Switzerland and the USA) is that their (federal) constitutions are explicitly anticlerical (and neither have Concordats). Concordats are proxies of state-church relations and thus, of the institutional influence of religion on society. Therefore, the absence of concordats may well indicate a certain degree of laicism in government affairs such as education, military, or real estate (see Sects. 8.3.4.6.2 and 16.2.1). However, having a Concordat does not constitute a monocausal explanation of lack of prosperity, as this research has emphasised in multiple combinations of triggers.
6 Languages
Quantitative model 4 (Sect. 15.3.1.2.1) shows that the German language positively correlates with competitiveness. The German language is also positively associated with transparency (QCA, Table 16.1; Appendices 4.3.4 and 5.4). I discussed the role of the Bible translations in standardising languages (German) and in unifying kingdoms (Great Britain), thus contributing to spreading cultural values conducive to enhancing competitiveness and transparency (Sect. 11.1).
Conversely, Romanlanguages (combined with high Concordats and low EPI) are associated with low competitiveness in QCA (Sect. 16.3.1.4). The Colombian case has shown how the Roman Church-State used Hispanicism as a powerful tool to isolate countries from the anticlericalist dynamics of Anglo-Saxon Protestantism,Footnote 3 French liberalism, and Soviet communism (Figueroa, 2007).
In Colombia, conservative traditionalists identified Hispanicism as a cultural weapon for maintaining corporatist ideals, a medieval-type hierarchical society, and for upholding the principles of seigneurial and counter-reformist Spain (Figueroa, 2016, p. 21). The Hispanicist triad illustrated by Figueroa (2016)—language, religion, and race—grew stronger with the rise of institutional (legal-political confessionalism) and economic corporatism, both part of a concerted corporate strategy to maintain hegemony. Consequently, such features are part of the same phenomenon. Rather than competing explanations, they are intervening ones. Therefore, empirical expectation 11 was fulfiled.
7 Ethnicities
Caucasian ethnic values exhibited a positive influence in QCA and in two quantitative models (Sect. 15.3.1). For Huntington, being “overwhelmingly white, British and Protestant” (Huntington, 2004, p. 31) is fundamental to US prosperity. Although the author has received fierce criticism for stating racist, stereotyping generalisations (McSweeney, 2015), the empirical results of this study suggest that Huntington’s assertion may not be misguided (see Sect. 15.3.1 and Truth Tables 17 and 19 in Appendix 4.2). However, the QCA clusters reveal that ethnicities are not a critical condition (unlike legal origin or state religion). As shown, ethnicities are the least important condition in plausible groups and empirical evidence for QCA.
Moreover, the quantitative model of corruption (Sect. 15.3.2) has indicated that the measure of “ethnic fractionalisation” produced no obvious conclusion, thus corroborating empirical expectation 8. Nonetheless, ethnicity results for Latin America might approximate the level of religious syncretism. Countries with a larger African or indigenous population (or both) exhibit higher levels of syncretism, for instance, spiritistic rituals and Roman Catholicism or Protestantism (see the Cuban and Colombian cases) (Contreras, 2013, p. 177; Ramírez, 2009, p. 167; Sánchez, 1992, pp. 90–91). Accordingly, multicultural countries such as Cuba, Brazil, Jamaica, Bolivia, or Colombia can be expected to display higher religious syncretism than more homogenous ones like Uruguay or Argentina. This issue needs to be further explored, theoretically and empirically.
Notes
- 1.
Please refer to Part V for a recapitulation of hypotheses and empirical expectations in this study.
- 2.
Subnationally, highly productive Catholic regions in Germany also exist (e.g. Bavaria today), evidently under the effect of a historically mostly Protestant and liberal influenced Federal Government. Hughes (1935) empirically identified a pattern of industrialisation of Catholic regions in Germany, during which Catholic farmers were dragged away from their land to work in surrounding industries established by Protestant capitalists. The author further concludes that (1) the advancement of modern industry in Germany’s Catholic regions was a kind of non-Catholic invasion; (2) Catholics, as a whole, held inferior positions in their workplaces; and (3) the industrial invasion impacted Catholic areas unevenly. (pp. 287; 290). Each region has different industrialisation triggers (e.g. the availability of raw materials, or the “push” of companies such as Audi or Siemens, which fled the communist expropriation in East Germany) (Hughes 1935; Schaal & Wehling, 2020).
- 3.
Hispanicism has been effective at preventing the success of anticlerical movements. Yet, it has been counteracted to a certain degree by other political or legal influences—for instance, US-American constitutionalism, which has succeeded throughout Europe and the Americas (Merryman & Pérez, 2015) (see Sect. 8.3.4.6.1). Likewise, Hispanicism does not prevent Colombia being the closest political ally of the USA in Latin America (Brock, 2011).
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García Portilla, J. (2022). Integrative Conclusions. In: “Ye Shall Know Them by Their Fruits”. Contributions to Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78498-0_23
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