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Conclusions

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Who Saved Antarctica?

Abstract

This chapter seeks to answer the question posed by the book’s title. It starts by considering whether Antarctica was indeed saved and, if so, from what. It then looks at the question of ‘who?’ and assesses the competing and complementary claims of Prime Ministers, presidents and others (and there are many) who assert a role, and those whose roles have remained hidden. The roll-call identifies the key political players, diplomats and their advisers. It also identifies the officials, scientists, environmentalists, media representatives and others who can also legitimately claim to have played an important part. Consensus on protecting the environment was the objective, as well as consensus on the future of the Antarctic Treaty System. No single individual or single event precipitated the turnaround in attitudes, and the book concludes that how change was affected turned out to be as important as who did it. The book concludes by addressing two unresolved issues: whether mining will ever take place in Antarctica and whether Antarctica will ever be a world park or included on the world heritage list.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    History as a tool for prediction is explored in: Carr, What Is History?, 66–70.

  2. 2.

    Murphy, “Antarctic Conservation: Only by Careful Planning and Cooperation Can We Save This Primeval Region from the Ravages of Man.” Barnes and Porter, Let’s Save Antarctica! Mosley, Saving the Antarctic Wilderness. http://www.greenpeace.org/new-zealand/en/about/history/how-we-saved-antarctica/ (accessed 3 February 2021).

  3. 3.

    Several geologists were emphatic on this. See, for example: John C. Behrendt, “Geophysical and Geological Research in Antarctica Related to the Assessment of Petroleum and Mineral Resources and Potential Environmental Hazards,” in Antarctic Challenge III, ed. Rüdiger Wolfrum (Duncker and Humblot, 1988), 165.

  4. 4.

    Maritime incidents immediately after the Protocol included: Lyubov Orlova (2006); Explorer and Nordkapp (2007); Ushuaia (2008); Ocean Nova (2009); Clelia II and Insung No 1 (2010); Polar Star (2011); and Mar Sem Fim (2012); Fram (2013). At least 15 other incidents damaged tourist vessels in that period. See Liggett, “Destination Icy Wilderness: Tourism in Antarctica,” 389–91.

  5. 5.

    31 May 2019, XLII ATCM/IP 136 (SCAR) “Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment—2019 Update” https://documents.ats.aq/ATCM42/ip/ATCM42_ip132_e.doc (accessed 11 January 2021).

  6. 6.

    Sometimes credit is shared with France. See, for example: Elliott, International Environmental Politics: Protecting the Antarctic, 162–66. Joyner, Governing the Frozen Commons, 150. 30 May 2016, Evan Bloom “The history, vision behind and impact of the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty” (25th Anniversary Symposium, Santiago) https://2009-2017.state.gov/e/oes/rls/remarks/2016/258286.htm (accessed 3 February 2021).

  7. 7.

    10 November 2014, transcript “Just call me Bob” (part 1) ABC TV Australian Story. https://www.abc.net.au/austory/just-call-me-bob/5869580 (accessed 3 February 2021).

  8. 8.

    March 2003, Michael Gordon “Bob Hawke on his loves, legacies and life after politics” The Age http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/02/28/1046407750547.html (accessed 3 February 2021).

  9. 9.

    Ryan and Bramston, The Hawke Government: A Critical Retrospective, 419. 14 December 2009, media release “20th anniversary of the Hawke government’s action to protect Antarctica” http://www.antarctica.gov.au/news/2009/20th-anniversary-of-the-hawke-governments-action-to-protect-antarctica (accessed 3 February 2021). 14 December 2009 “Hawke honoured for Antarctic mining fight” http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/14/2771530.htm?section=justin (accessed 3 February 2021). 9 July 2016, Nick O’Malley “Bob Hawke: There is not one outstanding leader in the world” http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/bob-hawke-there-is-not-one-outstanding-leader-in-the-world-20160708-gq1kgf.html#ixzz4DrHwk4mM (accessed 3 February 2021). 4 October 2016, Tim Stephens “Australia proved it was an environmental world leader with the Antarctic agreement” Sydney Morning Herald. Hawke and Rielly, Wednesdays with Bob, passim. 18 February 2018, ABC TV “Hawke: the larrikin and the leader” (Series 1, Episode 2), at 42:15 http://www.abc.net.au/tv/programs/hawke-the-larrikin-and-the-leader/ (accessed 3 February 2021). 3 July 2019, House of Representatives Hansard, 4–82. 3 July 2019, Senate Hansard, 6–41.

  10. 10.

    1 January 2015, Troy Bramston “Cabinet Papers 1988–1989: Hot under collar at who saved Antarctica” The Australian. Day, Paul Keating: The Biography, 322–23. Bramston, Paul Keating: The Big Picture Leader, 318–19.

  11. 11.

    Bush, Antarctica and International Law: A Collection of Inter-State and National Documents (Looseleaf Volumes), Vol IV, Booklet AU88–89, 21 at footnote 6. Bowden, The Silence Calling: Australians in Antarctica 1947–1997, 410–12. 3 March 1995, Tony Vermeer “Keating tells how he helped save Antarctica” (ATADD-1-BB-AU-718). Keating went on to say that Rocard did write to Hawke, “and it was the Bob and Michel show from there on”. If Rocard wrote to Hawke, this author has not seen it.

  12. 12.

    21 September 1988, letter Keating to Evans (AU-ATADD-1-BB-AU-193). 16 November 1988, facsimile DFAT to Antarctic Division “Summary of outstanding correspondence” (NAA: B1387 88/893 PART 1).

  13. 13.

    27 April 1989, letter Keating to Hawke (AU-ATADD-1-BB-AU-196). 4 May 1989, letter Cook to Hawke (NAA: B1387 88/893 PART 3).

  14. 14.

    12 April 1989, Cabinet Submission “Antarctic minerals convention” (NAA: 14039, 6415). Treasury’s objections to CRAMRA refer only to revenue and anti-subsidies: 24 March 1988, AAD brief to minister “Antarctic minerals convention—Cabinet Submission” (NAA: B1387 87/720 PART 2).

  15. 15.

    3 March 1995, Tony Vermeer “Keating tells how he helped save Antarctica” AAP (AU-ATADD-1-BB-AU-718), 2.

  16. 16.

    Keating’s letter said only that he had outlined to Rocard Australia’s policy his personal views on minerals. 27 April 1989, letter Keating to Hawke (AU-ATADD-1-BB-AU-196).

  17. 17.

    Jackson and Boyce, “Mining and ‘World Park Antarctica’,” 251–52. ibid., 251.

  18. 18.

    Bowden, The Silence Calling: Australians in Antarctica 1947–1997, 414.

  19. 19.

    Hawke later said it was as late as May 1989. 9 July 2016, Nick O’Malley “Clout in the cold together” The Age, 25.

  20. 20.

    29 April 1989, Margo Kingston “Libs likely to oppose Antarctic mining” Sydney Morning Herald, 6. 30 April 1989, Alan Fewster “Antarctic park finds an ally in Keating” Sunday Telegraph, 122.

  21. 21.

    The Hawke/Keating rivalry included the November 1988 Kirribilli Agreement, which addressed succession arrangements: Bramston, Paul Keating: The Big Picture Leader. d’Alpuget, Bob Hawke: The Complete Biography. Day, Paul Keating: The Biography, 323.

  22. 22.

    Ryan and Bramston, The Hawke Government: A Critical Retrospective, 419.

  23. 23.

    Graham Richardson, Whatever It Takes (Bantam, 1994). Richardson opposed mining but accepted Departmental advice to support CRAMRA. 12 April 1989, brief to minister’s adviser “Minerals convention” (NAA: B1387 88/893 PART 3). 12 April 1989, Cabinet Submission “Antarctic minerals convention” (NAA: 14039, 6415).

  24. 24.

    Evan’s submission was amended on the Saturday, two days before the Cabinet meeting. See 20 May 1989, Cabinet Submission corrigendum “Antarctic minerals convention: further developments” (NAA: 14039, 6506).

  25. 25.

    12 June 1989, ND69271 “India: Minister Evans visit: conversation with Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi” (NAA: B1387 89/311 PART 4). 29 June 1989, LH77976 “Senator Evans’ discussions in London” (NAA: B1387 89/453 PART 1).

  26. 26.

    Evans achieved infamy in the Tasmanian dams issue by commissioning RAAF surveillance over the state. Evans, “The Background Politics of the Tasmanian Dam Case,” 14.

  27. 27.

    Bill Bush, personal communication, 4 December 2020.

  28. 28.

    Evans and Grant, Australia’s Foreign Relations in the World of the 1990’s, 156–58.

  29. 29.

    Gareth Evans, Incorrigible Optimist: A Political Memoir (Melbourne University Press, 2017), 131. Evans spoke in similar terms at the National Press Club in October 2017: http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/national-press-club-address/NC1706C037S00#playing at 34:55 (accessed 3 February 2021).

  30. 30.

    Emerson, The Boy from Baradine, 186–97.

  31. 31.

    18 February 2018, “Hawke: The larrikin and the leader” (Series 1, Episode 2) ABC TV, at 42:15 http://www.abc.net.au/tv/programs/hawke-the-larrikin-and-the-leader/ (accessed 3 February 2021).

  32. 32.

    6 March 1991, House of Representatives Hansard, 1419.

  33. 33.

    Templeton, A Wise Adventure II: New Zealand and Antarctica after 1960, 226.

  34. 34.

    Yuri Rubinsky, “Arctic Interests and the Policy of France,” Arctic and North 24 (2016).

  35. 35.

    Antarctic Treaty, Measure 1 (2005) “Annex VI to the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty: Liability Arising from Environmental Emergencies” https://ats.aq/devAS/Meetings/Measure/331 (accessed 27 March 2020).

  36. 36.

    Antarctic Treaty, Measure 1 (2003) “Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty” https://ats.aq/devAS/Meetings/Measure/294 (accessed 27 March 2020).

  37. 37.

    Richard Woolcott, “Foreword,” in Australia and the Antarctic Treaty System: 50 Years of Influence, ed. Marcus Haward and Tom Griffiths (UNSW Press, 2011), xiv.

  38. 38.

    6 May 1991, letter Evans to McCarthy (NAA: B1387 91/32 PART 2).

  39. 39.

    8 May 1991, letter McCarthy to Evans (NAA: B1387 91/32 PART 2).

  40. 40.

    7 May 1991, House of Representatives Hansard, 3068–3069. 7 May 1991, Senate Hansard, 2769.

  41. 41.

    The Public Service Medal is part of the Australian honours system.

  42. 42.

    https://honours.pmc.gov.au/honours/awards/868972 (accessed 3 February 2021).

  43. 43.

    8 July 1993, letter Evans to McMullan, Minister for the Arts and Administrative Services (AAD: 81/346–3). Ayres, Fortunate Voyager: The Worlds of Ninian Stephen, 133–36.

  44. 44.

    5 December 1990, SC21441 “Antarctic—SCM—minerals outcome” (AAD: 89/914–2).

  45. 45.

    Christopher C. Joyner, “1988 Antarctic Minerals Convention,” Marine Policy Reports 1, no. 1 (1989): 81.

  46. 46.

    4 December 1990, SC21437 “Antarctic environment: SCM XI: Minerals” (AAD: 89/914–2). 26 April 1991, MA26855 “Antarctic instrument: Minerals” (NAA: B1387 91/32 PART 1).

  47. 47.

    29 May 1973, “Prepared remarks by Ambassador Edvard Hambro” (NAA: B1387 1991/370).

  48. 48.

    May 1989, PREP/WP/1 “Information paper, presented by the Delegation of Chile” (NAA: B1387 89/311 PART 1). 9 May 1989, PA74190 “Antarctic minerals convention” (NAA: B1387 89/311 PART 1).

  49. 49.

    May 1989, “ATCM XV—Prep” (AWJ personal notes).

  50. 50.

    Andersen, “Negotiating a New Regime: How CRAMRA Came into Existence,” 96–97.

  51. 51.

    1 December 1989, BS48709 “Antarctica” (NAA: B1387 89/932 PART 1). This contrasts with later observations that the British tended to act for the United States. See 19 June 1990, SC20769 “Antarctica: Chile’s policy and the SCM” (AAD: 89/914–1).

  52. 52.

    7 June 1989, DFAT facsimile message “CRAMRA: UK legislation” covering a copy of “Antarctic Minerals Bill (HL)” (NAA: B1387 89/311 PART 3).

  53. 53.

    Richardson, “John Arnfield Heap, CMG,” 265.

  54. 54.

    Robert Carrick, “Conservation of Nature in Antarctica,” ibid.10, no. 68 (1961). Murphy, “Antarctic Conservation: Only by Careful Planning and Cooperation Can We Save This Primeval Region from the Ravages of Man.”

  55. 55.

    Elliott, “Recommendation 5: Establishment of Antarctica as a World Park under United Nations Auspices,” 443–44. Murphy, “Antarctica: The Urgency of Protecting Life on and around the Great Southerly Continent,” 22.

  56. 56.

    Behrendt published eight such papers between 1981 and 1991, all concluding there are no known petroleum or mineral resources. For example: John C. Behrendt, “Recent Geophysical and Geological Research in Antarctica Related to the Assessment of Petroleum Resources and Potential Environmental Hazards to Their Development,” in Mineral Resources Potential of Antarctica, ed. John F. Splettstoesser and Gisela A. Dreschhoff, Antarctic Research Series 51 (American Geophysical Union, 1990), 163.

  57. 57.

    Richardson, Whatever It Takes. John Howard, Lazarus Rising: A Personal and Political Autobiography (HarperCollins, 2011). David Lange, My Life (Viking, 2005). Geoffrey Palmer, Reform: A Memoir (Victoria University Press, 2013).

  58. 58.

    Moore, Beyond Today: A Look at a Sustainable Economy, Resource Management and Control and a History of Environmental Politics in New Zealand, 72.

  59. 59.

    15 May 1990, Michael McCarthy “Major adds weight to Antarctic mining ban” The Australian, 10.

  60. 60.

    George Bush, “Statement on the environmental protection protocol to the Antarctic Treaty, 3 July 1991” http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=29657 (accessed 3 February 2021).

  61. 61.

    Hawke asserted that he influenced Bush’s decision by writing to him the previous week—this is impossible to verify as US hesitation triggered representations from several Parties and NGOs. See 5 July 1991, Greg Austin, “Bush comes around on Antarctic mining ban” Sydney Morning Herald, 5.

  62. 62.

    This was described as “the Cousteau method”. See 20 September 1989, PA76733 “Antarctica—Wellington Convention—interview with Cousteau” (NAA: B1387 89/453 PART 3).

  63. 63.

    Bergin, “The Politics of Antarctic Minerals: The Greening of White Australia,” 222–25. Francioni, “The Madrid Protocol on the Protection of the Antarctic Environment,” 49. Elliott, International Environmental Politics: Protecting the Antarctic, 194–95. Chaturvedi, The Polar Regions, 212. Templeton, A Wise Adventure II: New Zealand and Antarctica after 1960, 270–96. Clark, “The Antarctic Environmental Protocol: NGOs in the Protection of Antarctica.”

  64. 64.

    Apart from ASOC, Australian groups included the Antarctic Defence Coalition, Fund for Animals, Project Jonah, Greenpeace Australia, Australian Conservation Foundation, Ecofund and World Wildlife Fund. United States groups included Defenders of Wildlife, Environmental Defense Fund, Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace, Humane Society, National Audubon Society, National Wildlife Federation, Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club, The Antarctica Project, and The Wilderness Society.

  65. 65.

    27 August 1990, CH595660 “Antarctica: NZ position” (NAA: B1387 90/759 PART 2). Scully, “The Development of the Antarctic Treaty System,” 36.

  66. 66.

    14 October 1992, House of Representatives Hansard, 2156.

  67. 67.

    4 October 1991, speech by Senator Gareth Evans “Antarctica: An international environment win for Australia” (AU-ATADD-1-BB-AU-354), 2. https://honours.pmc.gov.au/honours/awards/878250 (accessed 3 February 2021).

  68. 68.

    J.G. Mosley, “Antarctica: The Case for a World Wilderness Park,” in Fighting for Wilderness, ed. J G Mosley and J Messer (Fontana/ACF, 1984).

  69. 69.

    27 August 1990, WL41558 “New Zealand: environmental groups” (NAA: B1387 90/759 PART 2).

  70. 70.

    Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition, “Congratulations, Cath,” ECO LXXX, no. 1 (1991). See also: https://www.goldmanprize.org/recipient/cath-wallace/ (accessed 3 February 2021).

  71. 71.

    10 May 1990, transcript ABC Radio Early AM “UK campaign to join Aust in opposing Antarctic minerals convention” (NAA: B1387 90/498 PART 1).

  72. 72.

    https://www.asoc.org/about/history/1118 (accessed 3 February 2021). Barnes, who founded ASOC in 1978, had an extraordinarily long association with Antarctic campaigns. See https://www.asoc.org/about/history (accessed 3 February 2021).

  73. 73.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/kelly-rigg/we-saved-antarctica-or-di_b_5344635.html (accessed 3 February 2021). Credit is also given to Kelly Rigg in: 23 February 2020, “Saving Antarctica” The History Hour BBC World Service, https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csypzz (accessed 6 April 2020), 1:20–10:20.

  74. 74.

    Mosley, Saving the Antarctic Wilderness.

  75. 75.

    Clark Lee Merriam, “The Cousteau Society/Foundation Cousteau: Retrospective of 1990 Activities,” Colorado Jourmal of International Environmental Law and Policy 2 (1991): 326–28.

  76. 76.

    Shortis, ““Who Can Resist This Guy?” Jacques Cousteau, Celebrity Diplomacy, and the Environmental Protection of the Antarctic,” 366–67.

  77. 77.

    11 July 1989, PA75294 “Prime Minister’s meeting with President Mitterrand: Antarctica” (NAA: B1387 89/453 PART 1). “Jacques Cousteau’s Visit to Australia,” 81. See also: https://honours.pmc.gov.au/honours/awards/878276 (accessed 3 February 2021).

  78. 78.

    http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/frozen-asset—1989/2842018 (accessed 3 February 2021). The program later achieved a gold award at the New York Film and Television Festival: Robert Raymond, “Frozen Assets,” Panorama: Ansett Airlines inflight magazine, no. 92 [April] (1990): 32.

  79. 79.

    http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/fourcorners/50years/video/4c_50yrs_TonyJones_frozenassets_288p.mp4 (accessed 3 February 2021). 25 February 2017, Martin Butler “Five places that made me” The Age (Traveller section), 5.

  80. 80.

    http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/four-corners-55th-anniversary/NC1627H003S00#playing (accessed 3 February 2021).

  81. 81.

    7 August 1991, DFAT minute “Antarctic environment treaty—Australian Conservation Foundation” (AAD: 91/919).

  82. 82.

    1 August 1991, CE57547 “Antarctica: SCM XI final session, Madrid, October: USSR views” (AAD: 91/919).

  83. 83.

    5 September 1989, PA76409 “Protection of Antarctic environment-France” (NAA: B1387 89/453 PART 2).

  84. 84.

    29 May 1989, transcript of interview, Good Morning NZ Radio NZ (NAA: B1387 89/311 PART 2).

  85. 85.

    Jackson and Kriwoken, “The Protocol in Action, 1992–2010,” 300–01.

  86. 86.

    Antarctic Treaty, Final Report of the Eleventh Antarctic Treaty Special Consultative, Madrid, 22–30 April 1991; 17–22 June 1991; 3–4 October 1991, 173.

  87. 87.

    February 1993, UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office brochure “Britain’s role in Antarctica” (AAD: 94/55), 12. 7 December 2016, speech by Alan Duncan MP “The UK’s leading role in protecting the Antarctic” https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-uks-leading-role-in-protecting-the-antarctic (accessed 12 December 2016).

  88. 88.

    Jacobsson, “Building the International Legal Framework for Antarctica,” 10.

  89. 89.

    23 February 2020, “Saving Antarctica” The History Hour BBC World Service, https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csypzz (accessed 6 April 2020), 7:05.

  90. 90.

    Elliott, International Environmental Politics: Protecting the Antarctic, 165. Joyner, “The Effectiveness of CRAMRA,” 163. Howkins, The Polar Regions: An Environmental History, 16–17.

  91. 91.

    Davor Vidas, ed. Implementing the Environmental Protection Regime for the Antarctic (Kluwer, 2000). C. J. Bastmeijer, The Antarctic Environmental Protocol and Its Domestic Legal Implementation, International Environmental Law and Policy Series: V. 65 (Kluwer, 2003). Jackson and Kriwoken, “The Protocol in Action, 1992–2010.” Lorne Kriwoken and Tom Maggs, “Environment,” ibid.

  92. 92.

    Elliott, International Environmental Politics: Protecting the Antarctic, 162.

  93. 93.

    3 October 1989, Greenpeace Australia facsimile “Testimony on CRAMRA in France” (NAA: B1387 89/453 PART 3). Templeton, A Wise Adventure II: New Zealand and Antarctica after 1960, 145 and 97.

  94. 94.

    8 September 1989, BO46791 “Environment—Antarctica: Visit to Bonn by Sir Ninian Stephen” (NAA: B1387 89/453 PART 3).

  95. 95.

    Joyner, “CRAMRA: The Ugly Duckling of the Antarctic Treaty System?”; and “The Effectiveness of CRAMRA,” 165.

  96. 96.

    These remarks were made at a 2001 Wilton Park conference (AAD: 01/616C).

  97. 97.

    Christopher Beeby, speech presented to International Bar Association, Auckland 13 October 1988 (NAA: B1387 88/893 PART 2).

  98. 98.

    Joyner, “The Effectiveness of CRAMRA,” 165.

  99. 99.

    For example, the requirement for sufficient information to make environmental assessments: Scully, “The Development of the Antarctic Treaty System,” 35. It established principles for Antarctic environmental liability and found ways to manage resources in the absence of universally recognised sovereignty: Jacobsson, “Building the International Legal Framework for Antarctica,” 10. CRAMRA’s lessons for the International Seabed Authority are discussed in: Nicholas R. Kirkham, K. M. Gjerde, and A. M. W. Wilson, “Deep-Sea Mining: Policy Options to Preserve the Last Frontier—Lessons from Antarctica’s Mineral Resource Convention,” Marine Policy 115 (2020).

  100. 100.

    Joyner, “The Effectiveness of CRAMRA,” 171.

  101. 101.

    Antarctic Treaty, Final Report of the Sixteenth Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting, Bonn, 7–18 October 1991, 197.

  102. 102.

    John A. Heap, ed. Handbook of the Antarctic Treaty System, 8th ed. (US Department of State, 1994), 2002. Heap may be suggesting that the ideas originated in Chile’s May 1989 proposal for a separate consolidation of environmental measures.

  103. 103.

    Francioni, “The Madrid Protocol on the Protection of the Antarctic Environment.” Francisco Orrego Vicuña, “The Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty: Questions of Effectiveness,” Georgetown International Environmental Law Review 7 (1994). Chaturvedi, The Polar Regions, 206–12. Joyner, Governing the Frozen Commons, 163–74. Templeton, A Wise Adventure II: New Zealand and Antarctica after 1960, 317–18. Jackson, “Politics, Diplomacy and the Creation of Antarctic Consensus.”

  104. 104.

    The Protocol and its mining ban apply to the Treaty area defined in Article VI, which leaves unresolved the Antarctic high seas.

  105. 105.

    Serge Pannatier, “Acquisition of Consultative Status under the Antarctic Treaty,” Polar Record 30, no. 173 (1994).

  106. 106.

    Doaa Abdel-Motaal, Antarctica: The Battle for the Seventh Continent (Praeger, 2016), 213–14.

  107. 107.

    Howkins, The Polar Regions: An Environmental History, 167. Joyner, Governing the Frozen Commons, 179–80.

  108. 108.

    Interpretations vary. For the view that a moratorium is intended, see Redgwell, “Antarctica: Wilderness Park or Eldorado Postponed?” 137. For the view that a moratorium is time-limited, see Philippe Sands et al., Principles of International Environmental Law, Third ed. (Cambridge University Press, 2012), 586–87. For suggestions that a review conference is likely, see Ben Saul and Tim Stephens, eds., Antarctica in International Law (Hart, 2015), lxvi. For the interplay between permanent prohibition, prohibition, permanent moratorium and moratorium, see Donald Rothwell and Ruth Davis, Antarctic Environmental Protection: A Collection of Australian and International Instruments (Federation Press, 1997), 30–32.

  109. 109.

    In addition, numerous media articles and websites conflate the Protocol and the Treaty, asserting that the Treaty itself expires in 2048. See, for example: 28 August 2015, Adam Lockyer “A cold war on Australia’s doorstep” https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/adam-lockyer/a-cold-war-on-australias-doorstep_b_8046812.html (accessed 8 September 2015).

  110. 110.

    Robert Swan, Antarctica 2041: My Quest to Save the Earth’s Last Wilderness (Broadway, 2009). The reference to 2041 derives from a misunderstanding of Protocol Article 25. The special review provision becomes available in 2048, 50 years after the Protocol’s 1998 entry into force, not its 1991 adoption. The name of an entire organisation is based on this error: https://2041foundation.org/about-us/ (accessed 6 January 2021). See also: “Robert Swan: Let’s save the last pristine continent” https://www.ted.com/talks/robert_swan_let_s_save_the_last_pristine_continent/transcript?language=en at 1:38 (accessed 4 May 2015); and “Protecting Antarctica beyond 2041: an interview with Robert Swan” https://news.mongabay.com/2019/07/protecting-antarctica-beyond-2041-an-interview-with-polar-explorer-robert-swan/ (accessed 26 July 2019).

  111. 111.

    Dufek, Through the Frozen Frontier, 171–86. Law, Antarctica 1984.

  112. 112.

    US Congress Office of Technology Assessment, Polar Prospects: A Minerals Treaty for Antarctica, 3.

  113. 113.

    1 May 2016, transcript of ABC TV Australian Story “The polariser” http://www.abc.net.au/austory/the-polariser/9173734 (accessed 15 June 2015).

  114. 114.

    28 November 1988, Sue Neales “Treaty members carve up Antarctic” Australian Financial Review, 13.

  115. 115.

    11 July 2006, Senate Hansard, Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport References Committee “Australia’s future oil supply and alternative transport fuels”, 4–6. 14 July 2006, Andrew Darby “Oil hungry world may turn to Antarctica” The Age.

  116. 116.

    International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2010: Executive Summary,” International Energy Agency. 14 November 2010, John Collins Rudolph “Is ‘peak oil’ behind us?” New York Times.

  117. 117.

    Unlike CRAMRA, the Protocol does not define mineral resource activities. The distinction between science and prospecting is important—the former is subject to the Treaty’s provision for free exchange of scientific results. Prospecting usually implies the non-disclosure of commercially sensitive data.

  118. 118.

    See, for example: Lebedeva and Petukhov, “Russia Decides to Return to the Antarctic with Serious Intentions and for Long.” 4 November 2010, “Ukraine to look for oil, gas in Antarctic” http://www.kyivpost.com/news/nation/detail/88645/#ixzz14LszFKUO (accessed 5 November 2010). Russia denies it has disguised prospecting—see, for example: XXV ATCM IP-014 (Russian Federation) “Russian scientific geological research in Antarctica in context of Article 7 of the Madrid Protocol” https://ats.aq/devAS/Meetings/Documents/56 (accessed 23 March 2020). Russian intentions continue to the subject of speculation, for example: https://jamestown.org/program/is-russia-preparing-to-challenge-the-status-quo-in-antarctica-part-two/ (accessed 3 February 2021). For speculation about China’s intentions, see Anne-Marie Brady, China as a Polar Great Power (Cambridge University Press, 2017), 201–07. Clive Hamilton, Silent Invasion: China’s Influence in Australia (Hardie Grant, 2018), 252–54.

  119. 119.

    “Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty”, Article 25.

  120. 120.

    Templeton, Protecting Antarctica: The Development of the Treaty System, 50. A Wise Adventure II: New Zealand and Antarctica after 1960, 316.

  121. 121.

    A. J. Press, “The Antarctic Treaty System: Future Mining Faces Many Mathematical Challenges,” in The Yearbook of Polar Law, ed. Gudmundur Alfredsson, Timo Koivurova, and Julia Jabour (Brill Nijhoff, 2015). Sean Coburn, “Eyeing 2048: Antarctic Treaty System’s Mining Ban,” Columbia Journal of Environmental Law 42, no. 2 (2017).

  122. 122.

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Jackson, A. (2021). Conclusions. In: Who Saved Antarctica? . Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78405-8_10

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