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Methodology and Data for Assessing the Effects of Global Cycles and Value Change on the Future of the Gulf Region

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The Future of the Gulf Region

Part of the book series: Gulf Studies ((GS,volume 2))

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Abstract

In this chapter, we debate the data sources of our analysis and the statistical methods used. We mention the methodologies and data in the order of their occurrence in the present book. Our used data sources are the best available opinion surveys on the Arab countries in the world today, i.e., the Arab Opinion Index of the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Doha, Qatar; the Arab Barometer, and the World Values Survey. For global opinion comparisons, we used the freely available PEW Spring 2018 Survey of the PEW Institute in Washington, D.C. For the analysis of Antisemitism, we rely on the ADL (2014) ADL-100 study by the Anti-Defamation League of Antisemitism in more than 100 countries. Our research also uses myriads of cross-national development data, made freely available online in EXCEL format at https://www.academia.edu/44295690/GULF_2020_Covid_19_PUBLIC_ACCESS_Data_base_for_the_book_Factors_affecting_the_Gulfs_future_Global_cycles_and_value_change_Springer_Publishing_Series_https_www_springer_com_series_16417_Gulf_Studies_edited_by_Prof_Mizanur_Rahman_Qatar_University. Our analysis was written in the well-established tradition of macro-quantitative and time series development research. We debate error margins and other statistical concepts and highlight such methods as factor analysis and econometric time series analysis, available via our used statistical program, the IBM-SPSS, XXIV.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The choropleth maps of this book were drawn using the free software developed by Robert Mundigl, available at https://www.clearlyandsimply.com/.

  2. 2.

    Older approaches often assumed that there is no correlation between the factors, best representing the underlying dimensions of the variables. But for example, in attempting to understand the pro-Brexit vote in the UK it would be ridiculous to assume that, say, there is no correlation between anti-immigration attitudes and the feeling to be among the losers of globalization.

  3. 3.

    The mathematical algorithm is described in https://www.ibm.com/support/knowledgecenter/en/SSLVMB_22.0.0/com.ibm.spss.statistics.algorithms/alg_factor_promax.htm. Interested readers are also referred to materials used at the University of Texas in Dallas, available at https://www.utdallas.edu/~herve/Abdi-rotations-pretty.pdf.

  4. 4.

    https://www.langerresearch.com/moe/.

  5. 5.

    https://www.academia.edu/45321329/Factors_affecting_the_Gulfs_future_Global_cycles_and_value_change_Electronic_Appendix.

  6. 6.

    https://www.academia.edu/45321329/Factors_affecting_the_Gulfs_future_Global_cycles_and_value_change_Electronic_Appendix.

  7. 7.

    https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-Covid-19 and https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/der-imf-erachtet-die-corona-krise-als-ernsthaftes-risiko-fuer-die-weltwirtschaft-ld.1544427.

  8. 8.

    https://www.unido.org/stories/coronavirus-economic-impact.

  9. 9.

    IBM SPSS 2007.

  10. 10.

    https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3vs_e5QAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra.

  11. 11.

    See: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/dataset/spring-2018-survey-data/.

  12. 12.

    https://www.academia.edu/45321329/Factors_affecting_the_Gulfs_future_Global_cycles_and_value_change_Electronic_Appendix.

  13. 13.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/global/dataset/spring-2018-survey-data/.

  14. 14.

    Using PEW data in multivariate analysis, users have to make sure that the don’t knows and missing values are properly excluded.

  15. 15.

    https://www.academia.edu/45321329/Factors_affecting_the_Gulfs_future_Global_cycles_and_value_change_Electronic_Appendix.

  16. 16.

    https://www.academia.edu/45321329/Factors_affecting_the_Gulfs_future_Global_cycles_and_value_change_Electronic_Appendix.

  17. 17.

    http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/.

  18. 18.

    http://ur.umich.edu/0405/Apr11_05/11.shtml.

  19. 19.

    https://www.academia.edu/45321329/Factors_affecting_the_Gulfs_future_Global_cycles_and_value_change_Electronic_Appendix.

  20. 20.

    https://www.academia.edu/45321329/Factors_affecting_the_Gulfs_future_Global_cycles_and_value_change_Electronic_Appendix.

  21. 21.

    The available codebook describes the survey and sampling techniques for each country covered by the survey. The data download page is https://www.arabbarometer.org/survey-data/data-downloads/.

  22. 22.

    https://www.arabbarometer.org/about/.

  23. 23.

    As stated on the website, “the operational base for the third wave is the Center for Strategic Studies in Jordan (CSS). This third phase was funded by the Canadian International Research and Development Centre (IDRC) and the United States Institute for Peace (USIP).

  24. 24.

    https://www.arabbarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/ABIV_Methods_Report.pdf.

  25. 25.

    Using PEW data in multivariate analysis, users have to make sure that the don’t knows and missing values are properly excluded.

  26. 26.

    https://www.academia.edu/45321329/Factors_affecting_the_Gulfs_future_Global_cycles_and_value_change_Electronic_Appendix.

  27. 27.

    http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WorldValues/Survey.jsp.

  28. 28.

    http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries.

  29. 29.

    http://hdr.undp.org/en/global-reports.

  30. 30.

    https://www.academia.edu/45321329/Factors_affecting_the_Gulfs_future_Global_cycles_and_value_change_Electronic_Appendix.

  31. 31.

    https://www.academia.edu/44295690/GULF_2020_Covid_19_PUBLIC_ACCESS_Data_base_for_the_book_Factors_affecting_the_Gulfs_future_Global_cycles_and_value_change_Springer_Publishing_Series_springer_com_series_16417_Gulf_Studies_edited_by_Prof_Mizanur_Rahman_Qatar_University.

  32. 32.

    Data definitions for the current version of the KOF Index are available from: https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/dual/kof-dam/documents/Globalization/2018/Definitions_2018_2.pdf.

  33. 33.

    https://www-01.ibm.com/software/at/analytics/spss/.

  34. 34.

    https://www.ibm.com/analytics/spss-statistics-software. The authors express thanks to the Department of Political Science, Innsbruck University, https://www.uibk.ac.at/politikwissenschaft/index.html.en for the opportunity to be able to use the software.

  35. 35.

    Income per capita 2010 (n log EU = 100) and income per capita 2013 (n log EU = 100)2 constant.

  36. 36.

    https://www.academia.edu/45321329/Factors_affecting_the_Gulfs_future_Global_cycles_and_value_change_Electronic_Appendix.

  37. 37.

    https://www.academia.edu/44295690/GULF_2020_Covid_19_PUBLIC_ACCESS_Data_base_for_the_book_Factors_affecting_the_Gulfs_future_Global_cycles_and_value_change_Springer_Publishing_Series_https_www_springer_com_series_16417_Gulf_Studies_edited_by_Prof_Mizanur_Rahman_Qatar_University.

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Tausch, A. (2021). Methodology and Data for Assessing the Effects of Global Cycles and Value Change on the Future of the Gulf Region. In: The Future of the Gulf Region. Gulf Studies, vol 2. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78299-3_2

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