Abstract
Given the problem of COVID-19 when this book was being written in 2020, this chapter explores the relationship between previous epidemics, pandemics like the Black Death and societal collapse. Comparing previous pandemics to COVID-19 reveals that how we use the built environment through isolation, quarantine and contact tracing together remain the key measures to prevent the spread of infection, given that a vaccine had not yet been developed at the time of writing this chapter, bringing into question the lack of benefits offered by most modern technology in the face of this global crisis. The economic impact of the present pandemic is discussed as well as its effect on the environment. Looking at the built environment and the current pandemic, an investigation showed no relationship between deaths from COVID-19 and density at both the national and city scales. The chapter looks at the decline in complexity caused by COVID-19 at the city scale and the corresponding increase in complexity at the plot and residential building scale. The chapter concludes by suggesting that critical times are a good test for recognising what matters the most, which is something that needs to be considered in the face of climate change mitigation.
Atishoo, atishoo, we all fall down
Nursery Rhyme
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Ahmed, W., Vidal-Alaball, J., Downing, J., & López Seguí, F. (2020). COVID-19 and the 5G conspiracy theory: Social network analysis of twitter data. Journal of Medical Internet Research, 22(5), 9.
AIA (American Institute of Architects). (2020). Architecture Billings Index (ABI). Retrieved May 12, 2020, from https://www.aia.org/resources/10046-the-architecture-billings-index.
Altizer, S., Ostfeld, R. S., Johnson, P. T. J., Kutz, S., & Harvell, C. D. (2013). Climate change and infectious diseases: From evidence to a predictive framework. Science, 341(6145), 514–519.
Antoine, D. (2008). The archaeology of “plague.” Medical History. Supplement, 27, 101–114.
Badr, H. S., Du, H., Marshall, M. Dong, E., & Squire, M. M. (2020). Association between mobility patterns and COVID-19 transmission in the USA: A mathematical modelling study. The Lancet on-line (9pp.) Retrieved August 7, 2020, from https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930553-3.
Bay, J. (2020). Automated contact tracing is not a coronavirus panacea. Retrieved April 20, 2020, from https://blog.gds-gov.tech/automated-contact-tracing-is-not-a-coronavirus-panacea-57fb3ce61d98.
Betts, R., Jones, C., Jin, Y., Keeling, R., Kennedy, J., Knight, J., & Scaife, A. (2020). Analysis: What impact will the coronavirus pandemic have on atmospheric CO2? Retrieved May 12, 2020, from https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-impact-will-the-coronavirus-pandemic-have-on-atmospheric-co2.
Bos, K., Schuenemann, V., Golding, G., Burbano, H., Waglechner, N., Coombes, B., Mcphee, J., Dewitte, S., Meyer, M., Schmedes, S., Wood, J., Earn, D., Herring, D., Bauer, P., Poinar, H., & Krause, J. (2011). A draft genome of Yersinia pestis from victims of the Black Death. Nature, 478(7370), 506–510.
Britain Express. (n.d.). Eyam St. Lawrence Church—The Plague Church. Retrieved April 24, 2020, from https://www.britainexpress.com/counties/derbyshire/churches/eyam.htm.
Brooks, G. (2001). Year of Wonders. Penguin Books.
Busby, J., Tanberk, J., & BroadbandNow Team. (2020). FCC underestimates Americans unserved by broadband internet by 50%. Retrieved April 28, 2020, from https://broadbandnow.com/research/fcc-underestimates-unserved-by-50-percent.
Cafferro, W. (2018). Plutarch’s war: Florence and the Black Death in context. Cambridge University Press.
Campbell, B. (2000). Britain 1300. History Today, 50(6), 10–17.
Canger, U. (2006). Nahuatl. In Encyclopedia of language and linguistics, 14 volume set. Elsevier ScienceDirect Books.
CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). (2019). 1968 pandemic (H3N2 virus). Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html.
Christakos, G., Olea, R. A., & Yu, H. (2007). Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics. Public Health, 121(9), 700–720.
Clark, G. (2016). Microbes and markets: Was the Black Death an economic revolution? Journal of Demographic Economics, 82, 139–165.
Clement, J. (2020). Worldwide digital population as of July 2020. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/617136/digital-population-worldwide/.
Clent, D. (2020). Why setting cell phone towers on fire won’t stop coronavirus. Retrieved May 25, 2020, from https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/121537885/why-setting-cell-phone-towers-on-fire-wont-stop-coronavirus.
Committee on Infectious Diseases. (2002). Smallpox vaccine. Pediatrics, 110(4), 841–845.
COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center For Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU). (2020). Retrieved May 5, 2020, from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.
Dols, M. W. (1974). The comparative communal responses to the Black Death in Muslim and Christian societies. Viator, 5, 269–288.
Drummond, J. D. (1984). Plague upon Eyam: An opera in three acts. University of Otago Press.
Duncan, C. J., & Scott, S. (2005). What caused the Black Death? Postgraduate Medical Journal, 81(955), 315.
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control). (2020). COVID-19 situation update worldwide, as of 3 August 2020. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases.
Elgin, C., Basbug, G., & Yalaman, A. (2020). Economic policy responses to a pandemic: Developing the COVID-19 economic stimulus index. In Covid economics: Vetted and real time papers (Vol. 3, pp. 40–54). CEPR Press
Encylopaedia Britannica. (2020). Tenochtitlán. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://www.britannica.com/place/Tenochtitlan.
ECDPC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control). (2020). COVID-19 situation update for the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 19 August 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020, from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea.
Farzan, A. N. (2020) A British man ran a marathon in his 20-foot backyard during the coronavirus lockdown—and thousands tuned in. Retrieved August 7, 2020, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/02/backyard-marathon-coronavirus/.
Ferretti, L., Wymant, C., Kendall, M., Zhao, L., Nurtay, A., Abeler-Dörner, L., Parker, M., Bonsall, D., & Fraser, C. (2020). Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing. Science (New York, N.Y.), 368(6491), 9.
Fraser, C., Abeler-Dörner, L., Ferretti, L., Parker, M., Kendall, M., & Bonsall, D. (2020). Digital contact tracing, Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://github.com/BDI-pathogens/covid-19_instant_tracing/blob/master/Centralised%20and%20decentralised%20systems%20for%20contact%20tracing.pdf.
Garcia, E. J., & Vale. B. (2017). Unravelling sustainability and resilience in the built environment. Routledge.
Gold, K. (2020, April 17). COVID-19 puts urban density to the test; OPINION. Globe & Mail [Toronto, Canada] (p. 3). Retrieved May 20, 2020, from https://link-gale-com.ezproxy.auckland.ac.nz/apps/doc/A621083142/AONE?u=learn&sid=AONE&xid=5549af80.
Hadavas, C. (2020). How effective are contact tracing apps? Retrieved May 20, 2020, from https://slate.com/technology/2020/05/contact-tracing-apps-less-effective-iceland.html.
Hatcher, J. (1994). England in the aftermath of the Black Death. Past & Present 144, 3–35.
Henderson, D. A. (2011). The eradication of smallpox—An overview of the past, present, and future. Vaccine, 29(4), 7–9.
Henneman, J. B. (1968). The Black Death and royal taxation in France, 1347–1351. Speculum, 43(3), 405–428.
Holloway, J. (2017). Resounding the landscape: The sonic impress of and the story of Eyam, plague village. Landscape Research, 42(6), 601–615.
Huber, E. (1926). The control of communicable diseases prevalent in Massachusetts. The Boston Medical and Surgical Journal, 195(3), 122–127.
Human Development Index and Its Components. (2019). Retrieved September 29, 2020, from http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/table-1-human-development-index-and-its-components-1.
IMF (International Monetary Fund). (2020). Factsheet. Retrieved May 12, 2020, from https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/16/49/Catastrophe-Containment-and-Relief-Trust.
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2020). Global energy review 2020. The impacts of the covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions. IEA Publications. Retrieved August 20, 2020, from https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/2995.
Jedwab, R., Johnson, N., & Koyama, M. (2019). Pandemics, places, and populations: Evidence from the Black Death. IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc, CEPR Discussion Papers 13523.
Kasstan, B. (2020). Angry at ultra-orthodox Jews for ‘Defying’ coronavirus rules? it’s more complicated than that. Haaretz Retrieved April 10, 2020, from https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/EXT.premium.EXT-STATIC-netanyahu-s-plane-israel-s-controversial-new-air-force-one-1.8993542.
Kemp, S. (2020). Digital 2020: the United Kingdom, Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2020-united-kingdom#:~:text=There%20were%2065.00%20million%20internet,at%2096%25%20in%20January%202020.
Lakner, C., Mahler, D. G., Negre, M., & Prydz, E. (2020). How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty? World Bank Group. Retrieved May 12, 2020, from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/765601591733806023/pdf/How-Much-Does-Reducing-Inequality-Matter-for-Global-Poverty.pdf.
Le Quéré, C., Jackson, R. B., Jones, M. W., Smith, A. J., Abernethy, S., Andrew, R. M., De-Gol, A. J., Willis, D. R., Shan, Y., Friedlingstein, P., Creutzig, F., Peters, G. P., & Canadell, J. G. (2020). Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement. Nature Climate Change, 1–7.
Lilley, K. D. (2014). Urban planning after the Black Death: Townscape transformation in later medieval England (1350–1530). Urban History, 42(1), 22–42.
Linkov, I., Fox-Lent, C., Keisler, J., Sala, S., & Sieweke, J. (2014). Risk and resilience lessons from Venice. Environment Systems and Decisions; Formerly the Environmentalist, 34(3), 378–382.
Livi-Bacci, M. (2006). The depopulation of Hispanic America after the conquest. Population and Development Review, 32(2), 199–232.
McKinley, K. (2020). How the rich reacted to the bubonic plague has eerie similarities to today’s pandemic. Retrieved August 6, 2020, from https://theconversation.com/how-the-rich-reacted-to-the-bubonic-plague-has-eerie-similarities-to-todays-pandemic-135925.
Márquez Morfín, L., & Storey, R. (2016). Population history in precolumbian and colonial times. In D. Nichols & E. Rodríguez-Alegría (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of the Aztecs. Oxford University Press. Retrieved September 29, 2020, from https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199341962.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199341962-e-35.
McCaa, R. (1995). Spanish and Nahuatl views on smallpox and demographic catastrophe in Mexico. The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 25(3), 397–431.
MH (Ministry of Health New Zealand). (2020a). Cellsites and 5G. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://www.health.govt.nz/your-health/healthy-living/environmental-health/radiation-environment/cellsites-and-5g.
Ministry of Health New Zealand. (2020b). COVID-19—Current cases. Retrieved August 6, 2020, from https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases.
National Bureau of Economic Research. (2020). Determination of the February 2020 peak in US economic activity. Retrieved August 20, 2020, from https://www.nber.org/cycles/june2020.html.
Nutton, V. (2008). Introduction. Medical History. Supplement, 27, 1–16.
O’Neill, P. H., Ryan-Mosley, T., & Johnson, B. (2020). A flood of coronavirus apps are tracking us. Now it’s time to keep track of them. Retrieved May 10, 2020, from https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/05/07/1000961/launching-mittr-covid-tracing-tracker/.
OECD.Stat (2020). Built-up area and built-up area change in countries and regions. Retrieved August 20, 2020, from https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=BUILT_UP.
Ostfeld, R. S., & Keesing, F. (2017). Is biodiversity bad for your health? Ecosphere, 8(3), 1–12.
OXFAM. (2020). Dignity not destitution. Retrieved May 12, 2020, from https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/620976/mb-dignity%20not%20destitution-an-economic-rescue-plan-for-all-090420-en.pdf.
Our World in Data. (2020a). COVID-19 death rate vs. population density. Retrieved June 20, 2020, from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-population-density.
Our World in Data. (2020b). Residential areas: How did the time spent at home change since the beginning of the pandemic? Retrieved April 11, 2020, from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/changes-residential-duration-covid?stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest®ion=World.
Our World in Data. (2020c). Residential areas: How did the time spent at home change since the beginning of the pandemic? Retrieved June 20, 2020, from https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/changes-residential-duration-covid?stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest®ion=World.
Platt, C. (1996). King death: The Black Death and its aftermath in late-medieval England. UCL Press.
PHE (Public Health England). (2019). 5G technologies: Radio waves and health. Retrieved May 10, 2020, from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/5g-technologies-radio-waves-and-health/5g-technologies-radio-waves-and-health.
Rosenberger, L. H., Riccio, L. M., Campbell, K. T., Politano, A. D., & Sawyer, R. G. (2012). Quarantine, isolation, and cohorting: From cholera to klebsiella. Surgical Infections, 13(2), 69–73.
Salo, J. (2020). Chinese resident on coronavirus lockdown ‘walks’ dog from balcony with leash. Retrieved August 7, 2020, from https://nypost.com/2020/02/19/chinese-resident-on-coronavirus-lockdown-walks-dog-from-first-floor-balcony-with-leash/.
Scheidel, W. (2017). The great leveler: Violence and the history of inequality from the stone age to the twenty-first century. University Press.
Schneider, A. (2020). Measuring the fallout of COVID-19 for the design industry. Retrieved May 12, 2020, from https://www.metropolismag.com/interiors/thinklab-industry-impact-survey/.
Schellekens, P., & Sourrouille, D. (2020). Tracking COVID-19 as cause of death: Global estimates of relative severity. Retrieved May 12, 2020, from https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Tracking_COVID-19_as_-Cause_of_Death-Global_Estimates_of_Severity.pdf.
Scott, S., & Duncan, C. J. (2001). Biology of plagues: Evidence from historical populations. Cambridge University Press.
Stanton, L. (2011). FCC 706 report finds broadband deployment too slow for second year; McDowell Dissents. Telecommunications Reports, 77(11), 1–45.
Startup Genome. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 on global startup ecosystems. Retrieved June 21, 2020, from https://startupgenome.com/reports/impact-covid19-global-startup-ecosystems-startup-survey.
Tainter, J. A. (1988). The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge University Press.
Telegraph Media Group. (2020). Amazing buildings you didn’t know were unfinished. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/galleries/spectacular-buildings-you-would-never-guess-are-unfinished/siena-cathedral/.
The Guardian. (2020). Delhi to transform 25 luxury hotels into Covid-19 care centres. Retrieved August 7, 2020, from https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/jun/22/delhi-to-transform-25-luxury-hotels-into-covid-19-care-centres.
The National Archives. (n.d.). Great plague of 1665–1666. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/great-plague/.
The Treasury. (2020, April). COVID-19 economic package at a glance: He waka eke noa: We are all working together. Retrieved May 12, 2020, from https://treasury.govt.nz/publications/glance/covid-19-economic-package-glance-he-waka-eke-noa-we-are-all-working-together-april-2020.
The World Bank. (2020). Global economic prospects. The World Bank. Retrieved May 12, 2020, from https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects.
Tognotti, E. (2013). Lessons from the history of quarantine, from plague to influenza A. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 19(2), 254–259.
UNDP. (2020). Socio-economic impact of COVID-19. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/coronavirus/socio-economic-impact-of-covid-19.html.
van Hoof, T. B., Bunnik, F. P. M., Waucomont, J. G. M., Kürschner, W. M., & Visscher, H. (2006). Forest re-growth on medieval farmland after the Black Death pandemic—Implications for atmospheric CO2 levels. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 237(2), 396–409.
Whittles, L. K., & Didelot, X. (2016). Epidemiological analysis of the Eyam plague outbreak 1665–1666. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 283, 1–9.
Whitmore, T. M. (1992). Disease and death in early colonial Mexico: Simulating Amerindian depopulation. Westview Press.
Worldometer. (2020). Countries in the EU by population (2020). Retrieved August 20, 2020, from https://www.worldometers.info/population/countries-in-the-eu-by-population/.
WHO (World Health Organisation). (2020a). Smallpox. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://www.who.int/biologicals/vaccines/smallpox/en/#:~:text=Two%20forms%20of%20the%20disease,most%20prominent%20on%20the%20face.
WHO. (2020b). Plague. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://www.who.int/health-topics/plague#tab=tab_1.
WHO. (2020c). Plague—Madagascar. Retrieved August 4, 2020, from https://www.who.int/csr/don/27-november-2017-plague-madagascar/en/.
WHO. (2020d). Contact tracing. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from https://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/training/contact-tracing/en/.
WHO. (2020e). 5G mobile networks and health. Retrieved May 10, 2020, from https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/5g-mobile-networks-and-health.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2021 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Garcia, E., Vale, B., Vale, R. (2021). Epidemics, Pandemics and Collapse. In: Collapsing Gracefully: Making a Built Environment that is Fit for the Future. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77783-8_9
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77783-8_9
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-77782-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-77783-8
eBook Packages: Social SciencesSocial Sciences (R0)