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Agriculture Employment and the Role of AI in Improving Productivity

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Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence for Agricultural Economics

Part of the book series: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science ((ISOR,volume 314))

Abstract

Explanations on the importance of the agricultural sector in the economy as economic growth progresses have benefitted greatly from the dual sector theory of Arthur Lewis. In this theory, the modern service or industrial sector utilizes the surplus labor in the agricultural or primary sector as its source of growth, along with the capital generated by the investment of savings, to expand its production and thus the gross output of the economy [1]. As the services or industrial (modern) sector expands in importance, there is a concomitant reduction in the percentage contribution to gross output by the agricultural sector (please see Table 6.1). This growth process thus generally requires the movement of labor from rural areas to urban areas with a decline of the rural population as a percentage of the national population. Paradoxically, the rural population and percentage of agriculture employment to total employment play an important role in the growth of agriculture. In the following figure, you can observe employment change trend in the agriculture (decline) and service industries (increase).

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Notes

  1. 1.

    W.A Lewis Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour (1954) - https://la.utexas.edu/users/hcleaver/368/368lewistable.pdf

  2. 2.

    Factors Influencing Agriculture’s Contribution to GDP - https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/187331/files/Factors%20Influencing%20Agriculture_s%20Contribution%20to%20GDP%20Latin%20America%20and%20the%20Caribbean.pdf

  3. 3.

    Population Growth - https://www.indexmundi.com/world/population_growth_rate.html#:~:text=Population%20growth%20rate%3A,1.03%25%20(2020%20est.)&text=Definition%3A%20The%20average%20annual%20percent,entering%20and%20leaving%20a%20country

  4. 4.

    McKinsey Global Institute (MGI)—Notes from the AI frontier Modeling the impact of AI on the world economy September-2018 - https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Featured%20Insights/Artificial%20Intelligence/Notes%20from%20the%20frontier%20Modeling%20the%20impact%20of%20AI%20on%20the%20world%20economy/MGI-Notes-from-the-AI-frontier-Modeling-the-impact-of-AI-on-the-world-economy-September-2018.ashx

  5. 5.

    Population growth (annual %) - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?end=2017&locations=1W&start=1981&view=chart

  6. 6.

    Rural Population - https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS

  7. 7.

    W.A Lewis Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour (1954) - https://la.utexas.edu/users/hcleaver/368/368lewistable.pdf

  8. 8.

    The World Bank - Rural population (% of total population) - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS?end=2017&locations=1W&start=1981&view=chart

  9. 9.

    A Closer Look at the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth - https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/Media_43616_smxx.pdf

  10. 10.

    Human Development - http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/latest-human-development-index-ranking

  11. 11.

    Life expectancy at birth, total (years)—World - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?end=2017&locations=1W&start=1981&view=chart

  12. 12.

    External Debt - https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS

  13. 13.

    Foreign Direct Investment - https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/BN.KLT.DINV.CD

  14. 14.

    Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment, Agricultural Sector and Economic Growth in Tanzania - https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=73719

  15. 15.

    FDI - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.KLT.DINV.CD?end=2017&locations=1W&start=1981&view=chart

  16. 16.

    Food Price Outlook - https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/

  17. 17.

    Inflation - https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG

  18. 18.

    Q&A about the Consumer Price Index - https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1587.html

  19. 19.

    Inflation - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?end=2017&locations=1W&start=1981&view=chart

  20. 20.

    Food Price Outlook - https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/food-price-outlook/#Consumer%20Price%20Index

  21. 21.

    Agricultural raw materials exports (% of merchandise exports) - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN?end=2017&locations=1W&start=1981&view=chart

  22. 22.

    Agricultural raw materials imports (% of merchandise imports) - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN?end=2017&locations=1W&start=1981&view=chart

  23. 23.

    Employment in agriculture - https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS

  24. 24.

    Employment in Agriculture - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?end=2017&locations=1W&start=1981&view=chart

  25. 25.

    Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) - https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS

  26. 26.

    Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP)—World - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.KD.ZG?end=2017&locations=1W&start=1981&view=chart

  27. 27.

    Data Source—Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?end=2017&locations=1W&start=1981&view=chart

  28. 28.

    API_NV.AGR.TOTL.KD.ZG_DS2_en_excel_v2_2063913.XLS - https://api.worldbank.org/v2/en/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.KD.ZG?downloadformat=excel

  29. 29.

    Agriculture Productivity Growth in Brazil—Recent trends and future prospects - http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/268351520343354377/pdf/123948-WP-6-3-2018-8-39-22-AriasetalAgriculturalgrowthinBrazil.pdf

  30. 30.

    API_SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS_DS2_en_excel_v2_2059645.XLS - https://api.worldbank.org/v2/en/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?downloadformat=excel

  31. 31.

    AI In Brazil - https://www.oecd.ai/dashboards/countries/Brazil

  32. 32.

    Brazil creates national AI innovation network - https://www.zdnet.com/article/brazil-creates-national-ai-innovation-network/

  33. 33.

    Brazil AI Policies - https://www.oecd.ai/dashboards/policy-initiatives?conceptUris=http:%2F%2Fkim.oecd.org%2FTaxonomy%2FGeographicalAreas%23Brazil

  34. 34.

    Colour-code clue to Brazil’s inflation past - https://www.bbc.com/news/business-11477974

  35. 35.

    Brazil - https://oec.world/en/profile/country/bra#:~:text=Exports%3A%20The%20top%20exports%20of,and%20Japan%20(%245.58B)

  36. 36.

    Rural Nonfarm Employment and Incomes in Brazil - http://www.oda-alc.org/documentos/1341945443.pdf

  37. 37.

    Brazil’s Changing Macroeconomic Conditions: Impacts on Agriculture - https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/236207/files/Brazil%20Macro%20and%20Agriculture.pdf

  38. 38.

    Brazil’s changing Macroeconomic Conditions - https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/236207/files/Brazil%20Macro%20and%20Agriculture.pdf

  39. 39.

    Economics by Lipsey, Richard, Chrystal, Alec 13th Revised edition (2015) Paperback Paper back – January 1, 1601 – Oxford University Press; 13th Revised edition (January 1, 1601).

  40. 40.

    Robert Carbaugh, International Economics 15th Edition, Cengage Learning; 15th edition (September 8, 2014), ISBN-13: 978-1285854359.

  41. 41.

    Want a Really Hard Machine Learning Problem? Try Agriculture, Says John Deere Labs - https://spectrum.ieee.org/view-from-the-valley/robotics/artificial-intelligence/want-a-really-hard-machine-learning-problem-try-agriculture-say-john-deere-labs-leaders

  42. 42.

    India economic survey 2018: Farmers gain as agriculture mechanisation speeds up, but more R&D needed - https://www.financialexpress.com/budget/india-economic-survey-2018-for-farmers-agriculture-gdp-msp/1034266/

  43. 43.

    FAO In India - http://www.fao.org/india/fao-in-india/india-at-a-glance/en/#:~:text=Agriculture%2C%20with%20its%20allied%20sectors,275%20million%20tonnes%20(MT)

  44. 44.

    “Free” Fertilizer is Saving Rural Farmers - https://www.permaculturenews.org/2017/10/02/free-fertilizer-saving-rural-farmers/

  45. 45.

    India may become farmer suicide capital: Agri Adviser - https://www.deccanherald.com/national/india-may-become-farmer-suicide-capital-agri-adviser-773068.html

  46. 46.

    Data Source—Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?end=2017&locations=1W&start=1981&view=chart

  47. 47.

    API_NV.AGR.TOTL.KD.ZG_DS2_en_excel_v2_2063913.XLS - https://api.worldbank.org/v2/en/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.KD.ZG?downloadformat=excel

  48. 48.

    Agriculture Productivity Growth in Brazil - Recent trends and future prospects - http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/268351520343354377/pdf/123948-WP-6-3-2018-8-39-22-AriasetalAgriculturalgrowthinBrazil.pdf

  49. 49.

    What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India? - https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/staffp/2002/03/pdf/cerra.pdf

  50. 50.

    Economic Crisis Forcing Once Self-Reliant India to Seek Aid - https://www.nytimes.com/1991/06/29/world/economic-crisis-forcing-once-self-reliant-india-to-seek-aid.html

  51. 51.

    PV Narasimha Rao Remembered as Father of Indian Economic Reforms - https://www.voanews.com/archive/pv-narasimha-rao-remembered-father-indian-economic-reforms

  52. 52.

    PV Narasimha Rao Remembered as Father of Indian Economic Reforms - https://www.voanews.com/archive/pv-narasimha-rao-remembered-father-indian-economic-reforms

  53. 53.

    4 reforms that pulled India back after it ran out of money in 1991 - https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/4-reforms-that-pulled-india-back-after-it-ran-out-of-money-in-1991/articleshow/53308703.cms?from=mdr

  54. 54.

    Manmohan Singh’s 1991 Budget: the day that changed India forever - https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/Manmohan-Singhs-1991-Budget-the-day-that-changed-India-forever/article14505003.ece

  55. 55.

    Manmohan Singh’s 1991 Budget: the day that changed India forever - https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/Manmohan-Singhs-1991-Budget-the-day-that-changed-India-forever/article14505003.ece

  56. 56.

    Economics by Lipsey, Richard, Chrystal, Alec 13th Revised edition (2015) Paperback Paper back – January 1, 1601 – Oxford University Press; 13th Revised edition (January 1, 1601).

  57. 57.

    Robert Carbaugh, International Economics 15th Edition, Cengage Learning; 15th edition (September 8, 2014), ISBN-13: 978-1285854359.

  58. 58.

    Class 10 Diagnostic Veterinarian Sensors—Hanumayamma Innovations and Technologies, Inc., http://www.hanuinnotech.com

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  1. Computer Engineering, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA

    Chandrasekar Vuppalapati

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Vuppalapati, C. (2021). Agriculture Employment and the Role of AI in Improving Productivity. In: Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence for Agricultural Economics. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 314. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77485-1_6

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