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Climate Modeling, Drought Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies in the Western Part of Bangladesh

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Climate Vulnerability and Resilience in the Global South

Part of the book series: Climate Change Management ((CCM))

Abstract

This study aims to assess the agricultural drought risk for the period of 1960–2011 and to identify the sustainable adaptation measures in the western part of Bangladesh which is most drought-prone areas in the country. The MK test, Sen’s slope estimator, and ARIMA model have been applied to climatic variables for detecting the trends and forecasting future climate scenarios. The Markov chain analysis and Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) have been used to generate the Drought Index (DI) and Drought Hazard Index (DHI). The pattern of drought risk is mapped by multiplying hazard and susceptibility indices. The annual average temperature in the area is about 25.44 °C, and the annual, as well as seasonal mean temperature is the lowest in north-east and the highest in the south-western part. The predicted annual mean temperatures vary from 24.47 to 26.75 °C and are higher than long term observed mean although the predicted spatial pattern will remain the same in the area. Drought poses a great risk in agriculture in the northern districts and comparatively low in the southern districts (coastal areas) and 21.64%, 26.53% and 29.67% of the area pose a very high, high, and modest risk respectively. Hence, it is urgent to act on adaptation measures in response to future climate change issues such as raising temperature and rainfall variability.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Bangladesh Studies, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh

    Md. Kamruzzaman

  2. Department of Geography and Applied Geography, University of North Bengal, Siliguri, India

    Tapash Mandal

  3. Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Kumamoto University, Kumamoto, Japan

    A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman

  4. Department of Statistics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh

    Md. Abdul Khalek & M. Sayedur Rahman

  5. Department of Agribusiness, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, Bangladesh

    G. M. Monirul Alam

Authors
  1. Md. Kamruzzaman
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  2. Tapash Mandal
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  3. A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman
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  4. Md. Abdul Khalek
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  5. G. M. Monirul Alam
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  6. M. Sayedur Rahman
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Md. Kamruzzaman .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, Bangladesh

    G. M. Monirul Alam

  2. Sustainable Enterprise Division, Asia Pacific College of Business and Law, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT, Australia

    Michael O. Erdiaw-Kwasie

  3. Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay

    Gustavo J. Nagy

  4. Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Hamburg, Germany

    Walter Leal Filho

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Kamruzzaman, M., Mandal, T., Rahman, A.T.M.S., Abdul Khalek, M., Alam, G.M.M., Rahman, M.S. (2021). Climate Modeling, Drought Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies in the Western Part of Bangladesh. In: Alam, G.M.M., Erdiaw-Kwasie, M.O., Nagy, G.J., Leal Filho, W. (eds) Climate Vulnerability and Resilience in the Global South. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77259-8_2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77259-8_2

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