Chances of Conflict on Account of Large-Scale Influx of Climate Refugees in India

Abstract

Global mean sea level has risen by 21–24 cm compared to the preindustrial levels and they are expected to rise by half a metre in 2050. This has led to increased displacement of human populations. According to World Migration Report 2020, there were 28 million new internal displacements across 148 countries at the end of 2018. Sixty one percent of these displacements were triggered by disasters, and 39% by conflict and violence. In India, 1.5 million people are classified as internally displaced every year. Small islands in the Ganga–Brahmaputra delta in the Sundarbans are already disappearing into the sea. Out of the ten most climate affected countries listed by Global Climate Risk Index, 2019, three are India’s neighbours: Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. In addition, there are many close island neighbours including Maldives, the island nation with the lowest elevation (1.5 m above sea level). In India, 350 million people live along the 7500-km long Indian coastline. Future climatic changes and increase of inflow from these neighbouring nations will add to the stress and strife the country is undergoing in view of migration of over 10 million people from the then East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) before and at the time of 1971 war. The problem might expand to political dimensions and could take communal turn considering that Maldives and Bangladesh are Islamic countries. The focus of the present chapter would be to look into the details of the above issues and try to figure out a solution.