Advertisement

Artificial Intelligence for Peace: An Early Warning System for Mass Violence

Chapter
  • 66 Downloads
Part of the International Political Economy Series book series (IPES)

Abstract

This chapter explores novel research conducted by scholars in artificial intelligence (AI) , peace studies, and political science who are collaborating to build sophisticated AI systems to help identify emergent real-time trends on social media which may be contemporaneous with eruptions of extreme violence or mass atrocities. Of key interest in our research is the phenomenon of memes, that may be deployed by nefarious actors with the intention of sparking eruptions of violence amidst pre-existing hostilities. This new research collaboration is also developing novel abilities in semantic forensics—the ability to parse complicated and layered meanings—within a constellation of traditional and social media sets. This chapter summarizes the current state of our research, including: (a) the technological challenges faced in the development of robust semantic analysis systems; (b) novel technologies for identifying deepfake media items; and (c) the complex ethical questions surrounding who should be granted access to this technology.

Keywords

Memes Disinformation Political violence Artificial intelligence 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This article is based on research sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) under agreement number [FA8750-16-2-0173] for the Media Forensics (MediFor) program. Support was also given by USAID under agreement number [7200AA18CA00054].

References

  1. Azeem, Ibrahim. The Rohingyas: Inside Myanmar’s Genocide. London: Hurst, 2018.Google Scholar
  2. Barrett, Brian. “An Artist Used 99 Phones to Fake a Google Maps Traffic Jam.” Wired. February 20, 2020. Accessed March 25, 2020. https://www.wired.com/story/99-phones-fake-google-maps-traffic-jam/.
  3. Bay, Herbert, Andreas Ess, Tinne Tuytelaars, and Luc Van Gool. “Speeded-up Robust Features (SURF).” Computer Vision and Image Understanding vol. 110, no. 3 (2008): 346–359.Google Scholar
  4. BBC. 2019. “Indonesia Post-Election Protests Leave Six Dead in Jakarta.” Accessed March 25, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-48361782.
  5. BBC. 2014. “Stephen Hawking Warns Artificial Intelligence Could End Mankind.” Accessed March 25, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540.
  6. BSR. Human Rights Impact Assessment: Facebook in Myanmar. October 2018. Accessed March 24, 2020. https://about.fb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/bsr-facebook-myanmar-hria_final.pdf.
  7. Cekfakta. 2020. Accessed March 25, 2020. https://cekfakta.com/.
  8. Chirot, Daniel and Clark McCauley. Why Not Kill Them All? The Logic and Prevention of Mass Political Murder. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010.Google Scholar
  9. Clifford, Catherine. “Elon Musk: Mark My Words, AI Is More Dangerous Than Nukes.” CNBC. March 13, 2018. Accessed March 25, 2020. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/13/elon-musk-at-sxsw-a-i-is-more-dangerous-than-nuclear-weapons.html.
  10. Dawkins, Richard. The Selfish Gene: 40th Anniversary Edition. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016.Google Scholar
  11. Edwards, Paul N. The Closed World: Computers and the Politics of Discourse in Cold War America. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1997.Google Scholar
  12. Ellis, Emma Grey. “Swatting Is a Deadly Problem—Here’s the Solution.” Wired. August 8, 2019. Accessed March 25, 2020. https://www.wired.com/story/how-to-stop-swatting-before-it-happens-seattle/.
  13. Eveleth, Rose. 2015. “How Many Photographs of You Are Out There in the World?” Accessed March 25, 2020. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/11/how-many-photographs-of-you-are-out-there-in-the-world/413389/.
  14. Fein, Helen. Human Rights and Wrongs. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers, 2007.Google Scholar
  15. Forstall, Christopher W., and Walter J. Scheirer. Quantitative Intertextuality. Cham: Springer, 2019.Google Scholar
  16. Galtung, Johan. “Violence, Peace, and Peace Research.” Journal of Peace Research vol. 6, no. 3 (1969): 167–191.Google Scholar
  17. Ge, Tiezheng, Kaiming He, Qifa Ke, and Jian Sun. “Optimized Product Quantization for Approximate Nearest Neighbor Search.” In Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, pp. 2946–2953, 2013.Google Scholar
  18. Goldsmith, Benjamin, Charles Butcher, Arcot Sowmya, Dimitri Semenovich. “Forecasting the Onset of Genocide and Politicide: Annual Out-of-sample Forecasts on a Global Dataset, 1988–2003.” Journal of Peace Research vol. 50, no. 4 (2013): 437–452.Google Scholar
  19. Goldstone, Jack, Robert H. Bates, David L. Epstein, Tedd Robert Gurr, Michael B. Lustick, Monty G. Marshall, Jay Ulfelder, and Mark Woodward. “A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability.” American Journal of Political Science vol. 54, no. 1 (2010): 190–208.Google Scholar
  20. Goodfellow, Ian, Yoshua Bengio, and Aaron Courville. Deep Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2016.Google Scholar
  21. Hafner-Burton, Emilie. “Sticks and Stones: Naming and Shaming the Human Rights Enforcement Problem.” International Organization vol. 62, no. 4. (2008): 689–716.Google Scholar
  22. Harff, Barbara.“No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risks of Genocide and Political Mass Murder Since 1955.” American Political Science Review vol. 97, no. 1 (2003): 57–73.Google Scholar
  23. Heldt, Birger. “Mass Atrocities Early Warning Systems: Data Gathering, Data Verification, and Other Challenges.” Guiding Principles of the Emerging Architecture Aiming at the Prevention of Genocide, War Crimes, and Crimes Against Humanity, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2028534. Accessed March 25, 2020.
  24. Human Rights Watch. 2018. “India: Events of 2018.” Accessed March 25, 2020. https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/india.
  25. Human Rights Watch. 2019. “World Report 2018: Myanmar.” Accessed March 25, 2020. https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/burma.
  26. Internet Society. 2019. “Consolidation in the Internet Economy.” Accessed March 25, 2020. https://future.internetsociety.org/2019/consolidation-in-the-internet-economy/.
  27. Kiernan, Ben. “Twentieth-Century Genocides: Underlying Ideological Themes from Armenia to East Timor.” In The Specter of Genocide: Mass Murder in Historical Perspective. Edited by Robert Gellately and Ben Kiernan. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003.Google Scholar
  28. Know Your Meme. 2020. “Occupy Wall Street.” Accessed March 25, 2020. https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/events/occupy-wall-street.
  29. Koonz, Claudia. The Nazi Conscience. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2003.Google Scholar
  30. Kristeva, Julia. “Word, Dialogue and Novel.” The Kristeva Reader. Edited by Toril Moi. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1986.Google Scholar
  31. Leach, Colin Wayne, and Aerielle M. Allen. “The Social Psychology of the Black Lives Matter Meme and Movement.” Current Directions in Psychological Science vol. 26, no. 6 (2017): 543–547.Google Scholar
  32. Lupel, Adam and Ernesto Verdeja. “Developing the Political Will to Respond.” In Responding to Genocide: The Politics of International Action. Edited by Adam Lupel and Ernesto Verdeja. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2013. pp. 241–257.Google Scholar
  33. Marcus, Gary, and Ernest Davis. Rebooting AI: Building Artificial Intelligence We Can Trust. New York: Pantheon, 2019.Google Scholar
  34. Midlarsky, Manus. The Killing Trap: Genocide in the Twentieth Century. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005.Google Scholar
  35. Moreira, Daniel, Aparna Bharati, Joel Brogan, Allan Pinto, Michael Parowski, Kevin W. Bowyer, Patrick J. Flynn, Anderson Rocha, and Walter J. Scheirer. “Image Provenance Analysis at Scale.” IEEE Transactions on Image Processing vol. 27, no. 12 (2018): 6109–6123.Google Scholar
  36. NIST. 2018. “2018 Medifor Challenge.” Accessed March 25, 2020. https://tsapps.nist.gov/publication/get_pdf.cfm?pub_id=928264.
  37. Poundstone, William. Prisoner’s Dilemma: John Von Neumann, Game Theory and the Puzzle of the Bomb. New York: Anchor Books, 1992.Google Scholar
  38. Robinson, Geoffrey. The Killing Season: A History of the Indonesian Massacres, 1965–66. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2018.Google Scholar
  39. RichardWebster, Brandon, So Yon Kwon, Christopher Clarizio, Samuel E. Anthony, and Walter J. Scheirer. “Visual Psychophysics for Making Face Recognition Algorithms More Explainable.” In Proceedings of the European Conference on Computer Vision (ECCV), pp. 252–270, 2018.Google Scholar
  40. Rocha, Anderson, Walter Scheirer, Terrance Boult, and Siome Goldenstein. “Vision of the Unseen: Current Trends and Challenges in Digital Image and Video Forensics.” ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR) vol. 43, no. 4 (2011): 1–42.Google Scholar
  41. Roff, Heather M. “The Frame Problem: The AI “Arms Race” Isn’t One.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists vol. 75, no. 3 (2019): 95–98.  https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2019.1604836.
  42. Santoro, Maurício. 2019. “The Brutal Politics of Brazil’s Drug War.” Accessed March 25, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/28/opinion/brazi-war-on-poor.html.
  43. Secretary General of the United Nations. Early Warning Systems. New York: United Nations, 2006.Google Scholar
  44. Sémelin, Jacques. Purify and Destroy: The Political Uses of Massacre and Genocide. London: Hurst & Company, 2005.Google Scholar
  45. Shifman, Limor. Memes in Digital Culture. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2014.Google Scholar
  46. Stella, X. Yu, and Jianbo Shi. “Multiclass Spectral Clustering.” In Proceedings of the International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV), p. 313. 2003.Google Scholar
  47. Stewart, Frances. “The Causes of Civil War and Genocide: A Comparison.” In Responding to Genocide: The Politics of International Action. Edited by Adam Lupel and Ernesto Verdeja. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2013. pp. 47–84.Google Scholar
  48. Suhartono, Muktita and Daniel Victor. “Violence Erupts in Indonesia’s Capital in Wake of Presidential Election Results.” New York Times, May 22, 2019. Accessed March 30, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/world/asia/indonesia-election-riots.html.
  49. Theisen, William, Joel Brogan, Pamela Bilo Thomas, Daniel Moreira, Pascal Phoa, Tim Weninger, and Walter Scheirer. “Automatic Discovery of Political Meme Genres with Diverse Appearances.” arXiv preprint arXiv:2001.06122 (2020).
  50. Twitter. 2020. “Developer Documentation.” Accessed March 25, 2020. https://developer.twitter.com/en/docs.
  51. Verdeja, Ernesto. “Predicting Genocide and Mass Atrocities.” Genocide Studies and Prevention vol. 9, no. 3 (2016). http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1911-9933.9.3.1314.
  52. Waller, James. Confronting Evil: Engaging Our Responsibility to Protect. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016.Google Scholar
  53. Wang, Shan. “WhatsApp Is a Black Box of Viral Misinformation—But in Brazil, 24 Newsrooms are Teaming Up to Fact-Check It.” Nieman Lab. August 6, 2018. Accessed March 25, 2020. https://www.niemanlab.org/2018/08/whatsapp-is-a-black-box-of-viral-misinformation-but-in-brazil-24-newsrooms-are-teaming-up-to-fact-check-it/.
  54. Weiss, Thomas G. What’s Wrong with the United Nations and How to Fix It. London: Polity, 2016.Google Scholar
  55. Weitz, Eric D. A Century of Genocide: Utopias of Race and Nation. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2003.Google Scholar
  56. Yankoski, Michael, Tim Weninger, and Walter Scheirer. “An AI Early Warning System to Monitor Online Disinformation, Stop Violence, and Protect Elections.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (2020): 1–6. https://thebulletin.org/2020/03/an-ai-early-warning-system-to-monitor-online-disinformation-stop-violence-and-protect-elections/.
  57. York, Jillian. 2012. “Middle East Memes, a Guide.” Accessed March 25, 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/apr/20/middle-east-memes-guide.

Copyright information

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Computer Science and EngineeringUniversity of Notre DameSouth BendUSA
  2. 2.Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies and Department of Political ScienceUniversity of Notre DameSouth BendUSA

Personalised recommendations