Sensemaking and Disaster Forensics: An Examination of Cholera Epidemics

Abstract

Cholera remains a public health issue in regions around the world. ‘The epidemiology of cholera in the areas of Asia, Africa and the Americas where the disease occurs, continues to evolve’ (Deen et al. in Vaccine 38:A31–A40, 2020 [1]). In managing public health crisis stemming from Cholera outbreaks, epidemiological data are crucial for decision-making pertaining to tactical and strategic interventions. Sensemaking as a process is key in surveillance, modeling, weak signal detection, mapping of high-incidence areas and design of intervention strategies across the spectrum of disaster management (mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery). Weick (Weick in Sensemaking in organizations, Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA, 1995 [2]) refers to sensemaking in terms of ‘…how we structure the unknown so as to be able to act in it. Sensemaking involves coming up with a plausible understanding—a map—of a shifting world; testing this map with others through data collection, action, and conversation; and then refining, or abandoning, the map depending on how credible it is’ (Ancona in Handbook of teaching leadership. Sage Publications Inc, Thousand Oaks, CA, pp 3–20, 2011 [3]). Public health disaster events require leaders and planners to engage in making sense of the impact and inherent vulnerabilities. As articulated in (Nowling et al. in J Appl Commun Res, 2020 [4], ‘they scan their environments for cues of changes and operational threats. After identifying the threat or change, they communicate and work collaboratively to determine the most plausible meaning of these cues (Weick in Admin Soc 38(4):628–652, 1993 [5])’. This chapter explores Cholera epidemics and the critical role sensemaking places in both tactical and strategic interventions. Systems thinking plays a key role in the sensemaking process and approach and is central to the discussion.