Abstract
Data on mean global surface temperature relative to the 1951–1980 average indicate an increase of 0.98 °C (1.76 °F) by 2019 with a clear upward trend since the late 1970s and nineteen of the twenty warmest years having occurred since 2001. The IPCC concluded that there is low confidence that average precipitation over global land areas had changed between 1901 and 1951 and a medium confidence that it had changed afterwards. Global mean sea level had risen by about 0.23 m (9 in) between 1880 and 2019, with the rate of rise having increased since the middle 1990s and is reported to have been 3.6 mm/yr over the period 2006–2015. The foundation for climate change projections is general circulation models (GCMs). The most recent IPCC reports have been supported by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), an international collaboration of climate modeling groups in which simulations were run with different GCMs using the same set of future emissions scenarios. CMIP3 and the IPCC AR4 used a suite of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios. CMIP5 and IPCC AR5 used four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
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Maliva, R. (2021). Historical Evidence for Anthropogenic Climate Change and Climate Modeling Basics. In: Climate Change and Groundwater: Planning and Adaptations for a Changing and Uncertain Future. Springer Hydrogeology. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-66813-6_3
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