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The Slow Formation of the Government

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How Ireland Voted 2020

Abstract

In 2016 it had taken a record 70 days after the election before a government was formed, but in 2020 it took precisely twice as long. This chapter outlines the drawn-out process by which the eventual three-party coalition was formed, explaining how other possibilities fell by the wayside. Based partly on interviews with key actors, it examines the way the Programme for Government was put together and how the significant intra-party barriers to agreement were overcome. The allocation of ministries between parties was agreed amicably, but there were difficulties within each party when it came to the selection of individuals to fill those posts. The government elected, with a nine-seat majority over all others in the Dáil, seems to have a good chance of lasting for its full five-year term.

This chapter is based partly on non-attributable interviews with six people who were close to the government formation process. Unsourced quotes in the chapter derive from these interviews.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Hugh O’Connell, Philip Ryan and Cormac McQuinn, ‘Leo Varadkar and Micheal Martin go head-to-head in first TV debate’, Irish Independent 23 January 2020.

  2. 2.

    By tradition, most government ministers travel abroad for St Patrick’s Day (17 March) to take part in official celebrations in other countries.

  3. 3.

    Eoin O’Malley, ‘Punchbags for heavyweights? Minor parties in Irish government’, Irish Political Studies 25:4 (2010), pp. 539–61.

  4. 4.

    Fiach Kelly, Marie O’Halloran and Pat Leahy, ‘Sinn Féin “will talk to all parties” on forming a government’, Irish Times 3 February 2020.

  5. 5.

    Michelle Hennessy, ‘ “We want a new government”: Martin rules out grand coalition floated by Taoiseach during debate’, The Journal.ie, 23 January 2020.

  6. 6.

    Juno McEnroe, ‘Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin rules out “grand coalition” with Fine Gael’, Irish Examiner 24 January 2020.

  7. 7.

    The Irish Times IpsosMRBI poll, 3 February 2020 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll.

  8. 8.

    Pat Leahy, ‘Howlin wants to build “progressive alliance” before coalition talks’, Irish Times 3 February 2020.

  9. 9.

    See Eoin O’Malley and Shane Martin, ‘The government and the Taoiseach’, pp. 243–69 in John Coakley and Michael Gallagher (eds), Politics in the Republic of Ireland, 6th ed (Abingdon: Routledge and PSAI Press, 2018).

  10. 10.

    Eoin O’Malley, ‘70 days: government formation in 2016’, pp. 255–76 in Michael Gallagher and Michael Marsh (eds), How Ireland Voted 2016: the election that nobody won (Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016), pp. 260–2.

  11. 11.

    Pat Leahy, Fiach Kelly, Jennifer Bray, ‘ “The numbers aren’t there”: Sinn Féin’s preferred left-leaning coalition gets a cool reception’, Irish Times 12 February 2020.

  12. 12.

    Seán Murray, ‘Eoin Ó Broin says Sinn Féin cannot form government without either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael’, The Journal.ie, 14 February 2020.

  13. 13.

    RTÉ Radio 1, Drivetime, 11 February 2020.

  14. 14.

    RTÉ Radio 1, Morning Ireland, 17 February 2020.

  15. 15.

    ‘Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael seeking a carve-up of political power to block change—Mary Lou McDonald’, Sinn Féin press statement 21 February 2020.

  16. 16.

    RTÉ Radio 1, ‘Today with Seán O’Rourke’, 4 March 2020.

  17. 17.

    For a good overview see Michael Laver and Norman Schofield, Multiparty Government: the politics of coalition in Europe (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1998).

  18. 18.

    That view was subsequently tested in the High Court, which refused an application by ten senators on the grounds that Article 18.1 clearly and unambiguously means that the institution, Seanad Éireann, created by the constitution must comprise 60 members (Senator Ivana Bacik & ors -v- An Taoiseach & ors [2020] IEHC 313).

  19. 19.

    Paul Cunningham, ‘Greens seek to “establish baseline” with 17 questions for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’, RTÉ News website, 23 April 2020.

  20. 20.

    Alfred G. Cuzán, ‘Five laws of politics’, PS: Political Science & Politics 48:3 (2015), pp. 415–19; Heike Klüver and Jae-Jae Spoon, ‘Helping or hurting? How governing as a junior coalition partner influences electoral outcomes’, The Journal of Politics 82: 4 (2020), pp. 1231–42. As noted above (p. 298), part of the reason why small parties tend to fall back after a spell in government is that they often received above-average support at the previous election, which is how they earned a place in government.

  21. 21.

    Daniel McConnell, ‘Simon Coveney: “Farming can’t be decimated for Greens’ 7% emissions demand” ’, Irish Examiner 1 May 2020.

  22. 22.

    RTÉ Radio 1, ‘Today with Seán O’Rourke’, 1 May 2020.

  23. 23.

    See Abhinay Muthoo, ‘A non-technical introduction to bargaining theory’, World Economics 1:2 (2000), pp. 145–66 for an accessible introduction to bargaining theory.

  24. 24.

    Pat Leahy and Fiach Kelly, ‘Public patience sorely tested as parties crawl towards a deal’, Irish Times 30 May 2020.

  25. 25.

    Hugh O’Connell, ‘More heat than light as talks drag on’, Sunday Independent 31 May 2020.

  26. 26.

    Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik and Gijs Schumacher find that party leaders stay in office even when they deliver poor electoral results if they are able to join the government. See their ‘What parties want from their leaders: how office achievement trumps electoral performance as a driver of party leader survival’, European Journal of Political Research 60:1 (2021), pp. 114–30.

  27. 27.

    A RedC poll published on 3 May showed Fine Gael on 35 per cent and Fianna Fáil on 14 per cent.

  28. 28.

    Hugh O’Connell and Cormac McQuinn, ‘Martin’s backing pushes Greens a step closer to deal’, Irish Independent 19 June 2020.

  29. 29.

    ‘Varadkar: no Plan B if the programme for government is rejected’, The Pat Kenny Show, Newstalk, 23 June 2020.

  30. 30.

    Aoife Moore, ‘Ó Cuív: unwise to assume Fianna Fáil’s membership will support coalition with Fine Gael’, Irish Examiner 5 April 2020.

  31. 31.

    See Eoin O’Malley, ‘Ministerial selection in Ireland: limited choice in a political village’, Irish Political Studies 21:3 (2006), pp. 319–36.

  32. 32.

    Dáil Éireann debate, vol. 994, no. 3, 27 June 2020.

  33. 33.

    ‘“All systems go” for new Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s historic coalition government’, Irish Examiner 29 June 2020.

  34. 34.

    Paul Hosford, ‘Martin “insulted both me and my community”—Moynihan’, Irish Examiner 2 July 2020.

  35. 35.

    Garret FitzGerald, All in a Life (Dublin: Gill and Macmillan, 1991), pp. 644–5.

  36. 36.

    John Bruton on ‘The Tonight Show’, Virgin Media One, 24 June 2020.

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Correspondence to Eoin O’Malley .

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O’Malley, E. (2021). The Slow Formation of the Government. In: Gallagher, M., Marsh, M., Reidy, T. (eds) How Ireland Voted 2020. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-66405-3_13

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