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MIDMod-OSN: A Microscopic-Level Information Diffusion Model for Online Social Networks

Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNTCS,volume 12575)


As online social networks continue to be commonly used for the dissemination of information to the public, understanding the phenomena that govern information diffusion is crucial for many security and safety-related applications. In this study, we hypothesize that the features that contribute to information diffusion in online social networks are significantly influenced by the type of event being studied. We classify Twitter events as either informative or trending and then explore the node-to-node influence dynamics associated with information spread. We build a model based on Bayesian Logistic Regression for learning and prediction and Random Forests for feature selection. Experimental results from real-world data sets show that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art diffusion prediction models, achieving 93% accuracy in informative events and 86% in trending events. We observed that the models for informative and trending events differ significantly, both in the diffusion process and in the user features that govern the diffusion. Our findings show that followers play an important role in the diffusion process and it is possible to use the diffusion and OSN behavior of users for predicting the trending character of a message very early, long before being able to count the number of reactions.


  • Social networks
  • Information diffusion
  • Bayesian learning
  • Classification and regression
  • Dimensionality reduction/feature selection

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This work was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants No. 1527579 and 1619201.

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Correspondence to Abiola Osho .

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Osho, A., Goodman, C., Amariucai, G. (2020). MIDMod-OSN: A Microscopic-Level Information Diffusion Model for Online Social Networks. In: Chellappan, S., Choo, KK.R., Phan, N. (eds) Computational Data and Social Networks. CSoNet 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12575. Springer, Cham.

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  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-66045-1

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