Abstract
Large-scale migration flows are posing immense challenges for governments around the globe, with drivers ranging from climate change and disasters to wars, violence, and poverty. In this paper, we introduce multiclass human migration models under user-optimizing and system-optimizing behavior in which the locations associated with migration are subject to capacities. We construct alternative variational inequality formulations of the governing equilibrium/optimality conditions that utilize Lagrange multipliers and then derive formulae for subsidies that, when applied, guarantee that migrants will locate themselves, acting independently and selfishly, in a manner that is also optimal from a societal perspective. An algorithm is proposed, implemented, and utilized to compute solutions to numerical examples. Our framework can be applied by governmental authorities to manage migration flows and population distributions for enhanced societal welfare.
Keywords
- Human migration networks
- Variational inequalities
- System optimization
- User optimization
- Capacities
- Subsidies
- Societal welfare
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.
Buying options

References
Altemeyer-Bartscher, M., Holtemöller, O., Lindner, A., Schmalzbauer, A., Zeddies, G., 2016. On the distribution of refugees in the EU. Intereconomics 51(4), 220–228.
Bartenstein, B., McDonald, M.D., 2019. Exporting people: How Central America encourages mass migration. Bloomberg, July 19; available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-19/migrant-crisis-at-border-how-central-america-encourages-exodus
Beckmann, M., McGuire, C.B., Winsten, C.B., 1956. Studies in the Economics of Transportation. Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut.
Bertsekas, D.P., Tsitsiklis, J.N., 1989. Parallel and Distributed Computation: Numerical Methods. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
Bier, V.M., Zhou, Y., Du, H., 2019. Game-theoretic modeling of pre-disaster relocation. The Engineering Economist. DOI: 10.1080/0013791X.2019.1677837
Boyce, D.E., Mahmassani, H.S., Nagurney, A., 2005. A retrospective on Beckmann, McGuire and Winsten’s Studies in the Economics of Transportation. Papers in Regional Science 84(1), 85–103.
Branswell, H., Joseph, A., 2020. WHO declares the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. STAT. March 11; available at: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/who-declares-the-coronavirus-outbreak-a-pandemic/
Cappello, G., Daniele, P., 2019. A variational formulation for a human migration model. In: Paolucci M., Sciomachen A., Uberti P., Editors, Advances in Optimization and Decision Science for Society, Services and Enterprises. AIRO Springer Series, vol 3. Springer Nature Switzerland, pp. 185–195.
Causa, A., Jadamba, B., Raciti, F., 2017. A migration equilibrium model with uncertain data and movement costs. Decisions in Economics and Finance 40, 159–175.
Chinchilla, L., Orozco, M., Pérez Bravo, T., Rodriguez, R., 2018. Do countries have enough capacity to handle migrants? Latin American Advisor, August 24. Available at: https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/do-countries-have-enough-capacity-to-handle-migrants/
Dafermos, S., 1980. Traffic equilibrium and variational inequalities. Transportation Science 14(1), 42–54.
Dafermos, S.C., 1973. Toll patterns for multiclass-user transportation networks. Transportation Science 7(3), 211–223.
Dafermos, S., Sparrow, F.T., 1971. Optimal resource allocation and toll patterns in user-optimized transport networks. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy 5(2), 184–200.
Dafermos S.C., Sparrow, F.T., 1969. The traffic assignment problem for a general network. Journal of Research of the National Bureau of Standards 73B, 91–118.
Davis, K.F., D;Odorico, P., Laio, F., Ridolfi, L., 2013. Global spatio-temporal patterns in human migration: A complex network perspective. PLOS ONE 8(1), e53723.
Dupuis, P., Nagurney, A., 1993. Dynamical systems and variational inequalities. Annals of Operations Research 44, 9–42.
European Commission, 2019. Communication from the Commission on the European Parliament, the European Council and the Council. Progress report on the Implementation of the European Agenda on Migration. Brussels, Belgium, 6.3.2019 COM(2019) 126 final.
International Organization for Migration, 2019. World migration report for 2020. Geneva, Switzerland.
Isac, G., Bulavsky, V.A., Kalashnikov, V.V., 2002. Complementarity, Equilibrium, Efficiency and Economics. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Jones, G., 2018. Italy will no longer be ‘Europe’s refugee camp’, vows new government. World News June 4.
Kalashnikov, V., Kalashnykova, N., Rojas, R.L. Munos, M.M., Uranga, C., Rojas, A.L., 2008. Numerical experimentation with a human migration model. European Journal of Operational Research 189, 208–229.
Karagiannis, G.M., 2016. Emergency management perspective of the European migrant crisis. Newsletter - special edition, The International Emergency Management Society, issue 4, October, 12–24, Brussels, Belgium.
Kennedy, M., 2019. U.N. says more than 4 million people have left Venezuela. NPR; available at: https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/730687807/u-n-says-more-than-4-million-people-have-left-venezuela
Kinderlehrer, D., Stampacchia, G., 1980. An Introduction to Variational Inequalities and Their Applications. Academic Press, New York.
Kitsantonis, N., 2019. Greek refugee camps are near catastrophe, Rights Chief warns. The New York Times, October 31.
Kotsireas, I.S., Nagurney, A., Pardalos, P.M., Editors, 2016. Dynamics of Disasters: Key Concepts, Models, Algorithms, and Insights. Springer International Publishing Switzerland.
Kotsireas, I.S., Nagurney, A., Pardalos, P.M., Editors, 2018. Dynamics of Disasters: Algorithmic Approaches and Applications. Springer International Publishing Switzerland.
Larsson, T., Patriksson, M., 1999. Side constrained traffic equilibrium models - analysis, computation and applications. Transportation Research B 33(4), 233–264.
Lawphongpanich, S., Hearn, D.W., Smith, M.J., Editors, 2006. Mathematical and Computational Models for Congestion Charging. Springer Science + Business Media, New York.
Mattiace, T., 2019. Mexico: Onset of migration crisis. Global Risk Insights, November 24. Available at: https://globalriskinsights.com/2019/11/mexico-onset-of-migration-crisis/
Nagurney, A., 1989. Migration equilibrium and variational inequalities. Economics Letters 31, 109–112.
Nagurney, A., 1990. A network model of migration equilibrium with movement costs. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 13, 79–88.
Nagurney, A., 1999. Network Economics: A Variational Inequality Approach, second and revised edition. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Nagurney, A., 2006. Supply Chain Network Economics: Dynamics of Prices, Flows and Profits. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, England.
Nagurney, A., 2010. Optimal supply chain network design and redesign at minimal total cost and with demand satisfaction. International Journal of Production Economics 128, 200–208.
Nagurney, A., Daniele, P., 2020. International human migration networks under regulations. European Journal of Operational Research, in press.
Nagurney, A., Daniele, P., Cappello, G., 2021. Human migration networks and policy interventions: Bringing population distributions in line with system-optimization. International Transactions in Operational Research 28(1), 5–26.
Nagurney, A., Daniele, P., Nagurney, L.S., 2020. Refugee migration networks and regulations: A multiclass, multipath variational inequality framework. Journal of Global Optimization 78, 627–649.
Nagurney, A., Pan, J., Zhao, L., 1992a. Human migration networks. European Journal of Operational Research 59, 262–274.
Nagurney, A., Pan, J., Zhao, L., 1992b. Human migration networks with class transformations. In: Structure and Change in the Space Economy. Lakshmanan, T.R., Nijkamp, P., Editors, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, pp. 239–258.
Nagurney, A., Yu, M., Qiang, Q., 2011. Supply chain network design for critical needs with outsourcing. Papers in Regional Science 90, 123–142.
Nagurney, A., Zhang, D., 1996. Projected Dynamical Systems and Variational Inequalities with Applications. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Massachusetts.
O’Connor, A., Batalova, J., Bolter, J., 2019. Central American immigrants in the United States. Migration Information Source, August 15. Available at: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/central-american-immigrants-united-states
OECD, 2019. How do OECD countries compare in their attractiveness for talented migrants? Migration Policy Debates, No. 19, May.
Pan, J., Nagurney, A., 1994. Using Markov chains to model human migration in a network equilibrium framework. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 19, 31–39.
Pan, J., Nagurney, A., 2006. Evolution variational inequalities and projected dynamical systems with application to human migration. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 43(5–6), 646–657.
Papadaki, S., Banias, G., Achillas, C., Aidonis, D., Folinas, D., Bochtis, D., Papangelou, S., 2018. A humanitarian logistics case study for the intermediary phase accommodation center for refugees and other humanitarian disaster victims. In: Dynamics of Disasters: Algorithmic Approaches and Applications, Kotsireas, I.S., Nagurney, A., Pardalos, P.M., Editors, Springer International Publishing Switzerland, pp. 157–202.
Parkinson, J., 2015. Which countries are in the best position to take migrants? BBC News Magazine, September 9. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-34138831
Robinson, C., Dilkina, B., Moreno-Cruz, J., 2020. Modeling migration patterns in the USA under sea level rise. PLoS ONE 15(1): e0227436. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227436
Sakuma, A., 2020. Damned for trying. Available at: http://www.msnbc.com/specials/migrant-crisis/libya
Shih, G., Denyer, S., Taylor, A., 2020. Worries grow that quarantine in China not enough to stem increasingly virulent coronavirus. Washington Post, January 27.
Stevis-Gridneff, M., 2020. Asylum seekers find a new route to Europe, flowing into a divided Cyprus. The New York Times, January 28.
UNHCR, 2020. Figures at a glance. Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/figures-at-a-glance.html
United Nations, 2017. Population facts. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York, December; available at: https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/popfacts/PopFacts_2017-5.pdf
United Nations Refugee Agency, 2015. The sea route to Europe: The Mediterranean passage in the age of refugees. July 1; available at: https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/protection/operations/5592bd059/sea-route-europe-mediterranean-passage-age-refugees.html
Wardrop, J.G., 1952. Some theoretical aspects of road traffic research. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, Part II 1: pp. 325–378.
Acknowledgements
The first two authors are grateful for the insights gained through participation in the Dynamics of Disasters conferences in Kalamata, Greece, and the very useful discussions.
The authors acknowledge the very helpful comments and suggestions provided by two anonymous reviewers on an earlier version of this paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2021 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Nagurney, A., Daniele, P., Cappello, G. (2021). Capacitated Human Migration Networks and Subsidization. In: Kotsireas, I.S., Nagurney, A., Pardalos, P.M., Tsokas, A. (eds) Dynamics of Disasters. Springer Optimization and Its Applications, vol 169. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64973-9_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64973-9_12
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-64972-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-64973-9
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)