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Dynamic Bayesian Network Model of a Country’s Economic Extension

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Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing V (CSIT 2020)

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 1293))

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Abstract

This paper presents the studies’ results on the probability-determined models development based on Bayesian networks to estimate the economic development measure of Ukraine. Considering that one of the difficulties in the Bayesian networks development is the exponential increase in the parameters amount in conditional probability tables (CPT), this study proposes a technique for applying Noisy-MAX nodes to model economic processes taking into account the time component. It is shown that if the proportion of enterprises that implement innovations is increased now by 31%, while the share of profits of these enterprises increases by only 2%, at the next time step the measure of manufacturability and innovation of Ukraine will rise by 81% and will tend to the maximum.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Kherson National Technical University, Kherson, Ukraine

    Mariia Voronenko, Nataliia Krugla & Volodymyr Lytvynenko

  2. National University of Water and Environmental Engineering, Rivne, Ukraine

    Dmytro Nikytenko & Nataliia Savina

  3. Jan Evangelista Purkyne University in Usti nad Labem, Usti nad Labem, Czech Republic

    Jan Krejci

  4. University of State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

    Oleksandr Naumov

Authors
  1. Mariia Voronenko
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  2. Dmytro Nikytenko
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  3. Jan Krejci
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  4. Nataliia Krugla
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  5. Oleksandr Naumov
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  6. Nataliia Savina
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  7. Volodymyr Lytvynenko
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mariia Voronenko .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Artificial Intelligence, Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine

    Natalya Shakhovska

  2. Institute of Computer Science and Information Technologies, Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine

    Mykola O. Medykovskyy

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Voronenko, M. et al. (2021). Dynamic Bayesian Network Model of a Country’s Economic Extension. In: Shakhovska, N., Medykovskyy, M.O. (eds) Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing V. CSIT 2020. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 1293. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63270-0_10

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