Abstract
As per the recent 2019 World Population Prospects, the world population will reach 9.7 billion in 2050, and this rise in population will lead to a 70% increase in the demand for agricultural production. Given the wrath of climate change and resource constraints in Asia, Latin America has a comparative advantage in terms of physical resources which make it the most plausible contender for the role of world food factory at large, considering value added incorporating biotechnology advances, logistics and the contribution of new technological development. The paper considers the local and global governance challenges due to economic and social disruptions, resulting from this significant opportunity for growth and development in the current world scenario.
This chapter draws partly on a conference presentation at the 7th AfD/EUDN Conference, “Fragmentation in a globalised world”, hold on December 9th, 2009 in Paris, and Garcette and Winograd (2009). I thank particularly François Bourguignon, Luis Miotti, Marcos Orteu, Robert Pecoud, Thierry Verdier and Alejandro Winograd for valuable comments. I am also grateful to participants in seminars in Paris, London, Montevideo, Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro. This chapter benefited significantly from the assistance and discussions with Resuf Ahmed. I thank particularly Elisa Belfiori for her comments and the encouragement for the publication in this book.
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Notes
- 1.
World Population Prospects 2019, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations.
- 2.
- 3.
Since the early years of the twenty-first century, we have observed a sustained rise in international markets food commodity prices. If the boom years seem behind, despite the big global recessions, of 2008 with the financial crisis, and of 2018 with the Covid 19 pandemia, international market prices stay high as compared to the levels experienced since the 1990s and before (FAO 2020). Forecasts for 2050 and beyond point to the sustainability of this path (FAO 2018).
- 4.
FAO 2011. The state of the world's land and water resources for food and agriculture.
- 5.
- 6.
- 7.
- 8.
See Fisher (2009).
- 9.
For example, Alexandratos and Bruissma (2012) estimate that the daily energy supply (calories per capita per day) will increase from 2772 in 2007 to 3070 in 2050.
- 10.
The long-term view of meat production (all types) estimates from Alexandratos and Bruissma (2012).
Meat production (million tons)
1961/1963
2005/2007
2050
World
72
258
456
Developed
52
109
137
Developing
20
149
317
- 11.
See Schwab and Sala-i-Martín (2016).
- 12.
See Table 11, 12, 13 in Fischer et al. (2012).
- 13.
FAO (2011). The state of the world’s land and water resources for food and agriculture (SOLAW).
- 14.
Based on UN (2019) and IASA world food system simulations, scenario FAO-REF-00 (May 2009), see also Fisher (2009). The population in risk of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa was 85 million in 1970, 286 million in 2020 and estimated at 240 million in 2050, whereas in East Asia falls from 500 million in 1970 to 26 million in 2050.
- 15.
Fonseca et al. (2020). Boletim do desmatamento da Amazônia Legal (maio 2020) SAD (p. 1). Belém: Imazon. https://imazon.org.br/publicacoes/boletim-do-desmatamento-da-amazonia-legal-maio-2020-sad/.
- 16.
Regular international polls show the growing concern on climate change. See Pew Research Center, Global Attitude Survey (2019).
- 17.
Latin American and Caribbean Forestry Commission (LACFC, FAO).
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Winograd, C. (2021). Natural Resources, Climate Change and Governance. In: Belfiori, M.E., Rabassa, M.J. (eds) The Economics of Climate Change in Argentina. The Latin American Studies Book Series. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-62252-7_7
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