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A New Forecasting Algorithm Based on Neighbors for Streaming Electricity Time Series

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Hybrid Artificial Intelligent Systems (HAIS 2020)

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Abstract

This work presents a new forecasting algorithm for streaming electricity time series. This algorithm is based on a combination of the K-means clustering algorithm along with both the Naive Bayes classifier and the K nearest neighbors algorithm for regression. In its offline phase it firstly divide data into clusters. Then, the nearest neighbors algorithm is applied for each cluster producing a list of trained regression models, one per each cluster. Finally, a Naive Bayes classifier is trained for predicting the cluster label of an instance using as training the cluster assignments previously generated by K-means. The algorithm is able to be updated incrementally for online learning from data streams. The proposed algorithm has been tested using electricity consumption with a granularity of 10 min for 4-h-ahead predicting. Our algorithm widely overcame other four well-known effective online learners used as benchmark algorithms, achieving the smallest error.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities for the support under the project TIN2017-88209-C2-1-R.

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Correspondence to A. Troncoso .

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Jiménez-Herrera, P., Melgar-García, L., Asencio-Cortés, G., Troncoso, A. (2020). A New Forecasting Algorithm Based on Neighbors for Streaming Electricity Time Series. In: de la Cal, E.A., Villar Flecha, J.R., Quintián, H., Corchado, E. (eds) Hybrid Artificial Intelligent Systems. HAIS 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12344. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61705-9_43

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61705-9_43

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-61704-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-61705-9

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