Skip to main content

Interpretable Machine Learning Based on Integration of NLP and Psychology in Peer-to-Peer Lending Risk Evaluation

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Natural Language Processing and Chinese Computing (NLPCC 2020)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNAI,volume 12431))

Abstract

With the rapid development of Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending in the financial field, abundant data of lending agencies have appeared. P2P agencies also have problems such as absconded with ill-gotten gains and out of business. Therefore, it is urgent to use the interpretable AI in Fintech to evaluate the lending risk effectively. In this paper we use the machine learning and deep learning method to model and analyze the unstructured natural language text of P2P agencies, and we propose an interpretable machine learning method to evaluate the fraud risk of P2P agencies, which enhances the credibility of the AI model. First, this paper explains model behavior based on the psychological interpersonal fraud theory in the field of social science. At the same time, the NLP and influence function in the field of natural science are used to verify that the machine learning model really learns the information of part-of-speech details in the fraud theory, which provides the psychological interpretable support for the model of P2P risk evaluation. In addition, we propose “style vectors” to describe the overall differences between text styles of P2P agencies and understand model behavior. Experiments show that using style vectors and influence functions to describe text style differences is the same as human intuitive perception. This proves that the machine learning model indeed learn the text style difference and use it for risk evaluation, which further shows that the model has a certain machine learning interpretability.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Guo, Y., Zhou, W., Luo, C., et al.: Instance-based credit risk assessment for investment decisions in P2P lending. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 249(2), 417–426 (2016)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  2. Luo, C., Xiong, H., Zhou, W., et al.: Enhancing investment decisions in P2P lending: an investor composition perspective. In: ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, San Diego, CA, USA, August. DBLP, pp. 292–300 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Zhao, T., Li, L., Xie, Y., et al.: Data-driven risk assessment for peer-to-peer network lending agencies. In: 2018 5th IEEE International Conference on Cloud Computing and Intelligence Systems (CCIS). IEEE (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Hendricks, D., Roberts, S.J.: Optimal client recommendation for market makers in illiquid financial products. In: Altun, Y., et al. (eds.) ECML PKDD 2017. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 10536, pp. 166–178. Springer, Cham (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71273-4_14

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  5. Jin-Qun, H.E., Liu, P.J.: The documents classification algorithm based on LDA. J. Tianjin Univ. Technol. 4, 28–31 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Mikolov, T., Chen, K., Corrado, G., et al.: Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. Computer Science (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Le, Q.V., Mikolov, T.: Distributed representations of sentences and documents. Eprint Arxiv, vol. 4, pp. 1188–1196 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Doshi-Velez, F., Kim, B.: Towards a rigorous science of interpretable machine learning. arXiv:1702.08608v2 (2017)

  9. Wang, X., He, X., Feng, F., et al.: TEM: tree-enhanced embedding model for explainable recommendation. In: The 2018 World Wide Web Conference (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Melis, D.A., Jaakkola, T.: Towards robust interpretability with self-explaining neural networks. In: Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, pp. 7775–7784. Curran Associates Inc., Red Hook (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Koh, P.W., Liang, P.: Understanding black-box predictions via influence functions. In: Proceedings of the 34th International Conference on Machine Learning, vol. 70, pp. 1885–1894 (2017). JMLR.org

  12. Ribeiro, M.T., Singh, S., Guestrin, C.: “Why should I trust you?”: explaining the predictions of any classifier. In: Proceedings of the 2016 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Demonstrations. ACM (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Lombrozo, T.: Causal–explanatory pluralism: how intentions, functions, and mechanisms influence causal ascriptions. Cogn. Psychol. 61(4), 303–332 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Byrne, R.M.J., Mceleney, A.: Counterfactual thinking about actions and failures to act. J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Mem. Cogn. 26(5), 1318–1331 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Wu, S., Jin, S.H., Cai, W.: Detecting deception by verbal content cues. Progress Psychol. Sci. 20(3), 457–466 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Das, S.P., Padhy, S.: A novel hybrid model using teaching–learning-based optimization and a support vector machine for commodity futures index forecasting. Int. J. Mach. Learn. Cybernet. 9(1), 97–111 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Kim, Y.: Convolutional neural networks for sentence classification. Eprint Arxiv (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Minami, S.: Predicting equity price with corporate action events using LSTM-RNN. J. Math. Financ. 08(1), 58–63 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Beijing Municipal Commission of Science and Technology [grant number Z181100001018035]; National Social Science Foundation of China [grant number 16ZDA055]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 91546121, 71231002]; Engineering Research Center of Information Networks, Ministry of Education; Beijing BUPT Information Networks Industry Institute Company Limited; the project of Beijing Institute of Science and Technology Information.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Lei Li or Tianyuan Zhao .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Li, L., Zhao, T., Xie, Y., Feng, Y. (2020). Interpretable Machine Learning Based on Integration of NLP and Psychology in Peer-to-Peer Lending Risk Evaluation. In: Zhu, X., Zhang, M., Hong, Y., He, R. (eds) Natural Language Processing and Chinese Computing. NLPCC 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12431. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60457-8_35

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60457-8_35

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-60456-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-60457-8

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics