Skip to main content

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Human Behaviors During Disasters: A Mathematical and Geographical Approach

Part of the Understanding Complex Systems book series (UCS)

Abstract

This chapter proposes to generalize to a geographical context an innovative SIR-based model describing human collective behaviors in situations of disasters. The novelty of this work is to adopt a complex network approach in order to model the influence of the space on the transitions among one behavior and the others. This network model will be applied on the specific case of a tsunami on the French Riviera caused by a seismic event.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-59302-5_11
  • Chapter length: 18 pages
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
eBook
USD   149.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • ISBN: 978-3-030-59302-5
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
Softcover Book
USD   199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Hardcover Book
USD   199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Fig. 11.1
Fig. 11.2
Fig. 11.3
Fig. 11.4
Fig. 11.5
Fig. 11.6
Fig. 11.7

References

  1. J. Arino, P. Van den Driessche, Disease spread in metapopulations. Fields Inst. Commun. 48(2006), 1–12 (2006)

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  2. D.D. Baumann, J.H. Simms, Human response to the hurricane, in Natural Hazards: Local, National, Globa, ed. by G.F. White (Oxford University Press, New York, 1974), pp. 1–148

    Google Scholar 

  3. N. Bellomo, C. Dogbe, On the modeling of traffic and crowds: a survey of models, speculations, and perspectives. SIAM Rev. 53(3), 409–463 (2011)

    MathSciNet  CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  4. J.C. Blackwood, L.M. Childs, An introduction to compartmental modeling for the budding infectious disease modeler. Lett. Biomath. 5(1), 195–221 (2018)

    MathSciNet  CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  5. G. Cantin, Nonidentical coupled networks with a geographical model for human behaviors during catastrophic events. Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos 27(14), 1750213 (2017)

    MathSciNet  CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  6. G. Cantin, N. Verdiére, V. Lanza, M. Aziz-Alaoui, R. Charrier, C. Bertelle, D. Provitolo, E. Dubos-Paillard, Mathematical modeling of human behaviors during catastrophic events: stability and bifurcations. Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos 26(10), 1630025 (2016)

    MathSciNet  CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  7. L. Crocq, Paniques Collectives (Les). Odile Jacob (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  8. E. Dubos-Paillard, Cheminements géographiques, de la modélisation urbaine à l’analyse des perceptions du risque d’inondation. Habilitation à diriger des recherches, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  9. H.W. Fischer, Response to disaster: Fact versus fiction & its perpetuation: The sociology of disaster. University press of America (1998)

    Google Scholar 

  10. N. George, L. Gamond, Premieres impressions. L’essentiel Cerveaux et Psycho: Les émotions au pouvoir Science 7, (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  11. D.T. Gilbert, R.B. Giesler, K.A. Morris, When comparisons arise. J. Personal. Soc. Psychol. 69(2), 227 (1995)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  12. D. Helbing, I. Farkas, T. Vicsek, Simulating dynamical features of escape panic. Nature 407(6803), 487 (2000)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  13. C.M. Henein, T. White, Macroscopic effects of microscopic forces between agents in crowd models. Physica A: Stat. Mech. Appl. 373, 694–712 (2007)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  14. M. Ioualalen, C. Larroque, O. Scotti, C. Daubord, Tsunami mapping related to local earthquakes on the french-italian riviera (western mediterranean). Pure Appl. Geophys. 171(7), 1423–1443 (2014)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  15. H. Laborit, La légende des comportements. Union Distribution (1994)

    Google Scholar 

  16. C. Larroque, B.M. de Lépinay, S. Migeon, Morphotectonic and fault-earthquake relationships along the northern ligurian margin (western mediterranean) based on high resolution, multibeam bathymetry and multichannel seismic-reflection profiles. Marine Geophys. Res. 32(1–2), 163–179 (2011)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  17. B. Maury, J. Venel, A mathematical framework for a crowd motion model. Comptes Rendus Mathematique 346(23–24), 1245–1250 (2008)

    MathSciNet  CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  18. M. Moussaïd, D. Helbing, G. Theraulaz, How simple rules determine pedestrian behavior and crowd disasters. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 108(17), 6884–6888 (2011)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  19. M. Nabaa, C. Bertelle, A. Dutot, D. Olivier, P. Lions, Exploitation of a displacement survey to detect road network use vulnerability, in ICCSA 2009 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  20. S.C. Nicolis, J. Halloy, J.L. Deneubourg, Transition between segregation and aggregation: the role of environmental constraints. Sci. Rep. 6, 32703 (2016)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  21. J.W. Powell, An introduction to the natural history of disaster. Univ. of Maryland: Disaster Research Project (1954)

    Google Scholar 

  22. D. Provitolo, Des modèles multiples pour l’étude des risques et catastrophes. Habilitation à diriger des recherches, Université Côte d’Azur (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  23. D. Provitolo, E. Dubos-Paillard, J.P. Müller, Emergent human behaviour during a disaster: Thematic versus complex systems approaches, in European Conference on Complex System, pp. 1–11 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  24. D. Provitolo, E. Dubos-Paillard, N. Verdière, V. Lanza, R. Charrier, C. Bertelle, M. Aziz-Alaoui, Les comportements humains en situation de catastrophe: de l’observation à la modélisation conceptuelle et mathématique. Cybergeo: European Journal of Geography (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  25. N. Verdière, V. Lanza, R. Charrier, D. Provitolo, E. Dubos-Paillard, C. Bertelle, M. Aziz-Alaoui, Mathematical modeling of human behaviors during catastrophic events, in International Conference on Complex Systems and Applications Le Havre, 23 au 26 juin 2014., pp. 67–74 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  26. X. Wang, L. Zhang, Y. Lin, Y. Zhao, X. Hu, Computational models and optimal control strategies for emotion contagion in the human population in emergencies. Knowl.-Based Syst. 109, 35–47 (2016)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  27. D.B. West et al., Introduction to Graph Theory, vol. 2 (Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 1996)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  28. N. Wijermans, R. Jorna, W. Jager, T.v. Vliet, Modelling crowd dynamics, influence factors related to the probability of a riot, in The Fourth European social Simulation Association Conference, pp. 529–541 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work has been supported by the French government, through the National Research Agency (ANR) under the Societal Challenge 9 “Freedom and security of Europe, its citizens and residents” with the reference number ANR-17-CE39-0008, co-financed by French Defence Procurement Agency (DGA) and The General Secretariat for Defence and National Security (SGDSN).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Valentina Lanza .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

Copyright information

© 2021 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Lanza, V. et al. (2021). Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Human Behaviors During Disasters: A Mathematical and Geographical Approach. In: Sajous, P., Bertelle, C. (eds) Complex Systems, Smart Territories and Mobility. Understanding Complex Systems. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59302-5_11

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59302-5_11

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-59301-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-59302-5

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)