Abstract
The increase in life expectancy and the decrease in birth rates pose a structural challenge for the pension systems of developed countries such as Japan and Spain. Pension law and social security system of these countries is complex. Moreover, describing or predicting the effects of changes in these laws is even more challenging. We contribute with an agent-based model (ABM) for computer-aided law education in this field. This model is a simplified representation of the complex reality of pension systems, to the point that the reality is more understandable and analytically manageable. The proposed model extends the wealth distribution scenario in the Sugarscape model, which is considered the first social simulation where the notion of modeling people was extended to consider entire cities. The proposed ABM encourages the exploration about different theories for the sustainability of pension systems through experimentation in a simple and controllable scenario. Experimental results indicate that a constant or increasing population of uniformly distributed ages is not enough to ensure the sustainability of pension systems as backbone of the welfare state. A Web version of model implementation as well as its source code, documentation, and extended experiments are available online.
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Notes
- 1.
The law also contemplates: (1) early retirement from the age of 60 with a reduction in benefits; and (2) partial retirement where part-time contracts are maintained.
- 2.
The average retirement pension in Spain is 15,942.5 euros per year in July 2019 [3].
- 3.
NetLogo was designed in the spirit of the programming language Logo, which was first thought to teach LISP concepts.
- 4.
In the model presented here, taxes are used exclusively for pensions. However, the implementation available online also allows experimenting with the use of tax revenue for social services.
- 5.
When considering the combination of taxes paid by employer and employee which, as explained, is 18.30% in Japan and 28.3% in Spain.
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Acknowledgments
This research work is supported by the “Universidad Politécnica de Madrid” under the programs “Ayudas Dirigidas a Jóvenes Investigadores para Fortalecer sus Planes de Investigación” (2018), “Ayudas a PDI e Investigadores Doctores para realizar Estancias de Investigación Internacional” (2019), and “Ayudas de Viajes a Investigadores para solicitar proyectos ERCs” (2019). This work is also partially supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 17H06103.
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Serrano, E., Satoh, K. (2020). An Agent-Based Model for Exploring Pension Law and Social Security Policies. In: Sakamoto, M., Okazaki, N., Mineshima, K., Satoh, K. (eds) New Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence. JSAI-isAI 2019. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12331. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58790-1_4
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