Abstract
This chapter is devoted to studying teleconnections. Teleconnections at a sampling rate of one year are between the components of the ENSO system (SOI and NINO) and between NINO and nine time series of spatially averaged annual surface temperature (AST): the globe, hemispheres, global and hemispheric oceans, and land. A meteorological teleconnection is between the components of MJO; its bivariate predictability is briefly analyzed in accordance with KWT. The system SOI/NINO is a strong teleconnection controlled by the innovation sequences which are closely correlated with each other. The system’s components are almost independent of their past and have spectra with smooth maxima at about 0.22 cpy; their predictability is low. ENSO is shown to affect AST being responsible for about 10% of the total variance of spatially averaged and detrended temperature and for 35–50% in the vicinity of ENSO’s natural frequency. The coherence can be up to 0.9, the change in NINO by 1 °C causes a response of about 0.1 °C in AST; the delay between NINO and AST is from 0.4 to 0.7 year. The feedback and Granger causality are weak. If the trend is regarded as nature-caused, the NINO contribution to surface temperature is negligibly small.
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Privalsky, V. (2021). Teleconnection Research and Bivariate Extrapolation. In: Time Series Analysis in Climatology and Related Sciences. Progress in Geophysics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58055-1_8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58055-1_8
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