Abstract
Different ecological methods are available to characterize environmental heterogeneity at landscape scales. However, to understand species compositions, distribution patterns within habitats and landscapes, and recent challenges caused by human impacts, a tool for characterizing and quantifying change of environmental conditions over time is needed as well.
Species compositions in general are related to both evolutionary/historical events and current environmental conditions. Dramatic events and changes often have long-lasting effects on ecosystems and species assemblages.
This study deals with the question of how stochastic effects, changing ecological conditions, the introduction of alien species, and dramatic events in general, can be characterized and quantified. We propose some initial ideas for the establishment of an indicator system for constancy and change through time, with respect to the effect size. The effect size depends not only on the magnitude of the factor but also on adaptability of organisms and susceptibility of the ecosystem. These metrics are important for understanding species composition and might be useful for predictability of survival. The species pools of large regions such as continents represent changes during evolutionary times whereas species assemblages of small regions often reflect short-time influences and events in the landscape history.
This contribution is an attempt to combine different orders of change to establish a tool for estimating environmental variability in time. Such a system can be used for calculating the risk of biodiversity loss.
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Hobohm, C., Vanderplank, S.E. (2021). Change: Risks and Predictability. In: Hobohm, C. (eds) Perspectives for Biodiversity and Ecosystems. Environmental Challenges and Solutions. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57710-0_8
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