Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

How Do Exposure Estimation Errors Affect Estimated Exposure-Response Relations?

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Quantitative Risk Analysis of Air Pollution Health Effects

Part of the book series: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science ((ISOR,volume 299))

Abstract

Associations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure concentrations and a wide variety of undesirable outcomes are routinely reported. Adverse outcomes associated with PM2.5 range from autism, auto theft, and COVID-19 mortality to elderly mortality, suicide, and violent crime. Many influential articles argue that reducing National Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM2.5 is desirable to reduce these outcomes; of late, it has become fashionable to explicitly interpret estimated statistical associations causally, implying that reducing PM2.5 would reduce associated adverse outcomes, typically by making untested modeling assumptions to justify interpreting association as causation. Yet, other studies have found that reducing particulate pollution dramatically, by as much as 70% and dozens of micrograms per cubic meter, has not detectably affected all-cause mortality rates even after decades, despite strong, statistically significant positive exposure concentration-response (C-R) associations between them (Zigler and Dominici 2014; see also Chap. 17).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 119.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 159.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 159.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • ATS (2017) American Thoracic Society. Air pollution may disrupt sleep. ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/05/170522080830.htm

  • Bai L, Chen H, Hatzopoulou M, Jerrett M, Kwong JC, Burnett RT, van Donkelaar A, Copes R, Martin RV, van Ryswyk K, Lu H, Kopp A, Weichenthal S. Exposure to ambient ultrafine particles and nitrogen dioxide and incident hypertension and diabetes. Epidemiology. 2018;29(3):323–32. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000000798.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bowe B, Xie Y, Li T, Yan Y, Xian H, Al-Aly Z. Particulate matter air pollution and the risk of incident CKD and progression to ESRD. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2018;29(1):218–30. https://doi.org/10.1681/ASN.2017030253.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Calderón-Garcidueñas L, Avila-Ramírez J, Calderón-Garcidueñas A, González-Heredia T, Acuña-Ayala H, Chao CK, Thompson C, Ruiz-Ramos R, Cortés-González V, Martínez-Martínez L, García-Pérez MA, Reis J, Mukherjee PS, Torres-Jardón R, Lachmann I. Cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers in highly exposed PM2.5 urbanites: the risk of Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases in young Mexico City residents. J Alzheimers Dis. 2016;54(2):597–613. https://doi.org/10.3233/JAD-160472.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen H, Kwong JC, Copes R, Hystad P, van Donkelaar A, Tu K, Brook JR, Goldberg MS, Martin RV, Murray BJ, Wilton AS, Kopp A, Burnett RT. Exposure to ambient air pollution and the incidence of dementia: a population-based cohort study. Environ Int. 2017;108:271–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2017.08.020.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clancy L, Goodman P, Sinclair H, Dockery DW. Effect of air-pollution control on death rates in Dublin, Ireland: an intervention study. Lancet. 2002;360(9341):1210–4.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cox LA Jr, Popken DA. Has reducing fine particulate matter and ozone caused reduced mortality rates in the United States? Ann Epidemiol. 2015;25(3):162–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2014.11.006.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cox LAT Jr. Do causal concentration-response functions exist? A critical review of associational and causal relations between fine particulate matter and mortality. Crit Rev Toxicol. 2017;47(7):603–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/10408444.2017.1311838.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Oliveira Galvão MF, de Queiroz JD, Duarte ESF, Hoelzemann JJ, de André PA, Saldiva PH, Menezes Filho JA, Batistuzzo de Medeiros SR. Characterization of the particulate matter and relationship between buccal micronucleus and urinary 1-hydroxypyrene levels among cashew nut roasting workers. Environ Pollut. 2017;220(Pt A):659–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2016.10.024.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deng H, Eckel SP, Liu L, Lurmann FW, Cockburn MG, Gilliland FD. Particulate matter air pollution and liver cancer survival. Int J Cancer. 2017;141(4):744–9. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.30779.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dennekamp M, Akram M, Abramson MJ, Tonkin A, Sim MR, Fridman M, Erbas B. Outdoor air pollution as a trigger for out-of-hospital cardiac arrests. Epidemiology. 2010;21(4):494–500. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181e093db.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Di Q, Dai L, Wang Y, Zanobetti A, Choirat C, Schwartz JD, Dominici F. Association of short-term exposure to air pollution with mortality in older adults. JAMA. 2017;318(24):2446–56. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2017.17923.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dockery DW, Rich DQ, Goodman PG, Clancy L, Ohman-Strickland P, George P, Kotlov T, HEI Health Review Committee. Effect of air pollution control on mortality and hospital admissions in Ireland. Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2013;176:3–109.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harvard School of Public Health (2002) Press release: ban on coal burning in Dublin cleans the air and reduces death rates. www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/archives/2002-releases/press10172002.html

  • Herrnstadt E, Muehlegger E (2015) Air pollution and criminal activity: evidence from Chicago microdata. NBER Working Paper No. w21787. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2703192

  • Honda T, Pun VC, Manjourides J, Suh H. Anemia prevalence and hemoglobin levels are associated with long-term exposure to air pollution in an older population. Environ Int. 2017;101:125–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2017.01.017.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang F, Pan B, Wu J, Chen E, Chen L. Relationship between exposure to PM2.5 and lung cancer incidence and mortality: a meta-analysis. Oncotarget. 2017;8(26):43322–31.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Just AC, Wright RO, Schwartz J, Coull BA, Baccarelli AA, Tellez-Rojo MM, Moody E, Wang Y, Lyapustin A, Kloog I. Using high-resolution satellite aerosol optical depth to estimate daily PM2.5 geographical distribution in Mexico City. Environ Sci Technol. 2015;49(14):8576–84.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim H, Kim J, Kim S, Kang SH, Kim HJ, Kim H, Heo J, Yi SM, Kim K, Youn TJ, Chae IH. Cardiovascular effects of long-term exposure to air pollution: a population-based study with 900 845 person-years of follow-up. J Am Heart Assoc. 2017;6(11):e007170. https://doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.117.007170.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu H, Tian Y, Cao Y, Song J, Huang C, Xiang X, Li M, Hu Y. Fine particulate air pollution and hospital admissions and readmissions for acute myocardial infarction in 26 Chinese cities. Chemosphere. 2018;192:282–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2017.10.123.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ma JH, Song SH, Guo M, Zhou J, Liu F, Peng L, Fu ZR. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 lowers influenza virus resistance via down-regulating pulmonary macrophage Kdm6a and mediates histones modification in IL-6 and IFN-β promoter regions. Biochem Biophys Res Commun. 2017;493(2):1122–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bbrc.2017.09.013.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malecki KM, Schultz AA, Bergmans RS. Neighborhood perceptions and cumulative impacts of low level chronic exposure to fine particular matter (PM2.5) on cardiopulmonary health. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018;15(1):E84. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15010084.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mapou AEM, Shendell D, Ohman-Strickland P, et al. Environmental factors and fluctuations in daily crime rates. J Environ Health. 2017;80(5):8–23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mazidi M, Speakman JR. Ambient particulate air pollution (PM2.5) is associated with the ratio of type 2 diabetes to obesity. Sci Rep. 2017;7(1):9144. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-08287-1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGuinn LA, Ward-Caviness C, Neas LM, Schneider A, Di Q, Chudnovsky A, Schwartz J, Koutrakis P, Russell AG, Garcia V, Kraus WE, Hauser ER, Cascio W, Diaz-Sanchez D, Devlin RB. Fine particulate matter and cardiovascular disease: comparison of assessment methods for long-term exposure. Environ Res. 2017;159:16–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2017.07.041.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mehta AJ, Kubzansky LD, Coull BA, Kloog I, Koutrakis P, Sparrow D, Spiro A, Vokonas P, Schwartz J. Associations between air pollution and perceived stress: the Veterans Administration Normative Aging Study. Environ Health. 2015;14:10. https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-14-10.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morales-Suárez-Varela M, Peraita-Costa I, Llopis-González A. Systematic review of the association between particulate matter exposure and autism spectrum disorders. Environ Res. 2017;153:150–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2016.11.022.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ng CF, Stickley A, Konishi S, Watanabe C. Ambient air pollution and suicide in Tokyo, 2001-2011. J Affect Disord. 2016;201:194–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2016.05.006.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oh I, Lee J, Ahn K, Kim J, Kim YM, Sun Sim C, Kim Y. Association between particulate matter concentration and symptoms of atopic dermatitis in children living in an industrial urban area of South Korea. Environ Res. 2018;160:462–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2017.10.030.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paciorek CJ, Liu Y, HEI Health Review Committee. Assessment and statistical modeling of the relationship between remotely sensed aerosol optical depth and PM2.5 in the eastern United States. Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2012;167:5–83.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pedersen M, Andersen ZJ, Stafoggia M, Weinmayr G, Galassi C, Sørensen M, Eriksen KT, Tjønneland A, Loft S, Jaensch A, Nagel G, Concin H, Tsai MY, Grioni S, Marcon A, Krogh V, Ricceri F, Sacerdote C, Ranzi A, Sokhi R, Vermeulen R, Hoogh K, Wang M, Beelen R, Vineis P, Brunekreef B, Hoek G, Raaschou-Nielsen O. Environ Ambient air pollution and primary liver cancer incidence in four European cohorts within the ESCAPE project. Respiration. 2017;154:226–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2017.01.006.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pun VC, Manjourides J, Suh H. Association of ambient air pollution with depressive and anxiety symptoms in older adults: results from the NSHAP study. Environ Health Perspect. 2017;125(3):342–8. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP494.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajput R. Understanding hair loss due to air pollution and the approach to management. Hair Ther Transplant. 2015;5:133. https://doi.org/10.4172/21670951.1000133.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Renzi M, Cerza F, Gariazzo C, Agabiti N, Cascini S, Di Domenicantonio R, Davoli M, Forastiere F, Cesaroni G. Air pollution and occurrence of type 2 diabetes in a large cohort study. Environ Int. 2017;112:68–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2017.12.007.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rhomberg LR, Chandalia JK, Long CM, Goodman JE. Measurement error in environmental epidemiology and the shape of exposure-response curves. Crit Rev Toxicol. 2011;41(8):651–71. https://doi.org/10.3109/10408444.2011.563420.R.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Savage SL. The flaw of averages: why we underestimate risk in the face of uncertainty. Hoboken: Wiley; 2009.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz J, Coull B, Laden F, Ryan L. The effect of dose and timing of dose on the association between airborne particles and survival. Environ Health Perspect. 2008;116(1):64–9. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.9955.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shamy M, Alghamdi M, Khoder MI, Mohorjy AM, Alkhatim AA, Alkhalaf AK, Brocato J, Chen LC, Thurston GD, Lim CC, Costa M. Association between exposure to ambient air particulates and metabolic syndrome components in a Saudi Arabian Population. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017;15(1):E27. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15010027.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shen YL, Liu WT, Lee KY, Chuang HC, Chen HW, Chuang KJ. Association of PM2.5 with sleep-disordered breathing from a population-based study in Northern Taiwan urban areas. Environ Pollut. 2018;233:109–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2017.10.052.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi L, Zanobetti A, Kloog I, Coull BA, Koutrakis P, Melly SJ, Schwartz JD. Low-concentration PM2.5 and mortality: estimating acute and chronic effects in a population-based study. Environ Health Perspect. 2016;124(1):46–52.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sram RJ, Veleminsky M Jr, Veleminsky M Sr, Stejskalová J. The impact of air pollution to central nervous system in children and adults. Neuro Endocrinol Lett. 2017;38(6):389–96.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tallon LA, Manjourides J, Pun VC, Mittleman MA, Kioumourtzoglou MA, Coull B, Suh H. Erectile dysfunction and exposure to ambient air pollution in a nationally representative cohort of older Men. Environ Health. 2017a;16(1):12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-017-0216-6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tallon LA, Manjourides J, Pun VC, Salhi C, Suh H. Cognitive impacts of ambient air pollution in the National Social Health and Aging Project (NSHAP) cohort. Environ Int. 2017b;104:102–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2017.03.019.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thurston GD, Ahn J, Cromar KR, Shao Y, Reynolds HR, Jerrett M, Lim CC, Shanley R, Park Y, Hayes RB. Ambient particulate matter air pollution exposure and mortality in the NIH-AARP diet and health cohort. Environ Health Perspect. 2016;124(4):484–90. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509676.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner MC, Krewski D, Diver WR, Pope CA, Burnett RT, Jerrett M, Marshall JD, Gapstur SM. Ambient air pollution and cancer mortality in the cancer prevention study II. Environ Health Perspect. 2017;125(8):087013. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1249.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) (2010) Summary of expert opinions on the existence of a threshold in the concentration-response function for pm2.5-related mortality technical support document (TSD) June 2010 Compiled by: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Health and Environmental Impact Division Air Benefit-Cost Group Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. https://www3.epa.gov/ttnecas1/regdata/Benefits/thresholdstsd.pdf

  • Wang Y, Kloog I, Coull BA, Kosheleva A, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD. Estimating causal effects of long-term PM2.5 exposure on mortality in New Jersey. Environ Health Perspect. 2016;124:1182–8. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409671.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang H, Song L, Ju W, Wang X, Dong L, Zhang Y, Ya P, Yang C, Li F. The acute airway inflammation induced by PM2.5 exposure and the treatment of essential oils in Balb/c mice. Sci Rep. 2017;7:44256. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep44256.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weng CH, Hu CC, Yen TH, Huang WH. Association between environmental particulate matter and carpal tunnel syndrome in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Kidney Blood Press Res. 2017;42(5):827–36. https://doi.org/10.1159/000484422.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu X, Nethery RC, Sabath BM, Braun D, Dominic F. Exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States: a nationwide cross-sectional study. BMJ. 2020;200:54502. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054502.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu F, Qiu X, Hu X, Shang Y, Pardo M, Fang Y, Wang J, Rudich Y, Zhu T. Effects on IL-1β signaling activation induced by water and organic extracts of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in vitro. Environ Pollut. 2018;237:592–600. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2018.02.086.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xue T, Zhang Q. Associating ambient exposure to fine particles and human fertility rates in China. Environ Pollut. 2018;235:497–504. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2018.01.009.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yadav AK, Kumar K, Kasim A, et al. Visibility and incidence of respiratory diseases during the 1998 haze episode in Brunei Darussalam. Pure Appl Geophys. 2003;160:265–77.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yeh HL, Hsu SW, Chang YC, Chan TC, Tsou HC, Chang YC, Chiang PH. Spatial analysis of ambient PM2.5 exposure and bladder cancer mortality in Taiwan. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017;14(5):E508. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14050508.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Younan D, Tuvblad C, Franklin M, Lurmann F, Li L, Wu J, Berhane K, Baker LA, Chen JC (2017) Longitudinal analysis of particulate air pollutants and adolescent delinquent behavior in southern california. J Abnorm Child Psychol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10802-017-0367-5

  • Young MT, Sandler DP, DeRoo LA, Vedal S, Kaufman JD, London SJ. Ambient air pollution exposure and incident adult asthma in a nationwide cohort of U.S. women. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2014;190(8):914–21. https://doi.org/10.1164/rccm.201403-0525OC.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang B, Liang S, Zhao J, Qian Z, Bassig BA, Yang R, Zhang Y, Hu K, Xu S, Zheng T, Yang S. Maternal exposure to air pollutant PM2.5 and PM10 during pregnancy and risk of congenital heart defects. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol. 2016;26(4):422–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/jes.2016.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou Y, Gilboa SM, Herdt ML, Lupo PJ, Flanders WD, Liu Y, Shin M, Canfield MA, Kirby RS. Maternal exposure to ozone and PM2.5 and the prevalence of orofacial clefts in four U.S. states. Environ Res. 2017;153:35–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2016.11.007.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zigler CM, Dominici F. Point: clarifying policy evidence with potential-outcomes thinking--beyond exposure-response estimation in air pollution epidemiology. Am J Epidemiol. 2014;180(12):1133–40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cox Associates and University of Colorado, Denver, CO, USA

    Louis Anthony Cox Jr.

Authors
  1. Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2021 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Cox Jr., L.A. (2021). How Do Exposure Estimation Errors Affect Estimated Exposure-Response Relations?. In: Quantitative Risk Analysis of Air Pollution Health Effects. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 299. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57358-4_16

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation