Skip to main content

Commodity Prices in Empirical Research

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data

Part of the book series: Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance ((DMEF,volume 27))

  • 758 Accesses

Abstract

Commodity prices are key ingredients in many economic theories. We pick three of them (Prebisch–Singer hypothesis, commodity currencies, financialization of commodity markets) and give a critical view on the empirical challenges faced by practitioners, including measurement inconsistencies, endogeneity concerns, time series properties, and empirical design.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    This section borrows from the primer on real effective exchange rates of Chinn (2006).

References

  • Acharya, V. V., Lochstoer, L. A., & Ramadorai, T. (2013). Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 109(2), 441–465.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahn, J. B., Mano, R., & Zhou, J. (2017). Real exchange rate and external balance: How important are price deflators? (Working Papers No. 17/81). International Monetary Fund.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arezki, R., Hadri, K., Loungani, P., & Rao, Y. (2014). Testing the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks. Journal of International Money and Finance, 42, 208–223.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aslam, A., Beidas-Strom, S., Bems, R., Celasun, O., Çelik, S. K., & Koczan, Z. (2016). Trading on their terms? Commodity exporters in the aftermath of the commodity boom. (Working Papers No. 16/27). International Monetary Fund.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bai, J., Kao, C., & Ng, S. (2009). Panel cointegration with global stochastic trends. Journal of Econometrics, 149, 82–99.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Chang, T., Elmi, Z., & Ranjbar, O. (2018). Re-testing Prebisch-Singer hypothesis: New evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test. Applied Economics, 50(4), 441–454.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Balassa, B. (1964). The purchasing power parity doctrine: A reappraisal. Journal of Political Economy, 72, 584.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Banerjee, A., & Carrion-I-Silvestre, J. L. (2015). Cointegration in panel data with structural breaks and cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30(1), 1–23.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Basak, S., & Pavlova, A. (2016). A model of financialization of commodities. Journal of Finance, 71(4), 1511–1556.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhagwati, J. N. (1984). Why are services cheaper in the poor countries? Economic Journal, 94, 279–286.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhardwaj, G., Gorton, G., & Rouwenhorst, K. G. (2015). Facts and fantasies about commodity futures ten years later, NBER 21243.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bodart, V., Candelon, B., & Carpantier, J. F. (2012). Real exchange rates in commodity producing countries: A reappraisal. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31, 1485–1502.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bodart, V., Candelon, B., & Carpantier, J. F. (2015). Real exchanges rates, commodity prices and structural factors in developing countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 51, 264–284.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bodart, V., & Carpantier, J. F. (2016). Real exchange rates and skills. Journal of International Money and Finance, 67, 305–319.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Breitung, J., & Pesaran, M. (2005). Unit roots and cointegration in panels (Working Paper No. 05–32). Institute of Economic Policy Research.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brunetti, C., Buyuksahin, B., & Harris, J. H. (2016). Speculators, prices and market volatility. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 51(5), 1545–1574.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cashin, P., Cespedes, L. F., & Sahay, R. (2004). Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate. Journal of Development Economics, 75(1), 239–268.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cashin, P., & McDermott, C. J. (2002). The long-run behavior of commodity prices: Small trends and big variability. IMF Staff Papers, 49(2), 175–199.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, Y.-C., & Lee, D. (2018). Market power, inflation targeting, and commodity currencies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 88(C), 122–139.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, Y.-C., & Rogoff, K. S. (2003). Commodity currencies. Journal of International Economics, 60(1), 133–160.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, Y.-C., Rogoff, K. S., & Rossi, B. (2010). Can exchange rates forecast commodity prices? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(3), 1145–1194.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheng, I.-H., Kirilenko, A., & Xiong, W. (2015). Convective risk flows in commodity futures markets. Review of Finance, 19(5), 1733–1781.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheng, I.-H., & Xiong, W. (2014). The financialization of commodity markets. Annual Review of Economic Financial Economics, 6, 419–441.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chinn, M. (2006). A primer on real effective exchange rates: Determinants, overvaluation, trade flows and competitive devaluation. Open Economies Review, 17(1), 115–143.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clements, K. W., & Fry, R. (2008). Commodity currencies and currency commodities. Resources Policy, 33(2), 55–73.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Choudhri, E. U., & Khan, M. S. (2005). Real exchange rates in developing countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson effects present? IMF Staff Papers, 52(3), 1–2.

    Google Scholar 

  • Christoffersen, P., Lunde, A., & Olesen, K. V. (2019). Factor structure in commodity futures return and volatility. Journal of Financial and Quantitative analysis, 54(3), 1083–1115.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Collier, P., & Goderis, B. (2012). Commodity prices and growth: An empirical investigation. European Economic Review, 56(6), 1241–1260.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coudert, V., Couharde, C., & Mignon, V. (2011). Does euro or dollar pegging impact the real exchange rate. World Economy, 34(9), 1557–1592.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cuddington, J. (1992). Long-run trends in 26 primary commodity prices: A disaggregated look at the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Journal of Development Economics, 39, 207–227.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cuddington, J., & Urzua, C. (1989). Trends and cycles in the net barter terms of trade: A new approach. Economic Journal, 99, 426–442.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Darvas, Z. (2012. Real effective exchange rates for 178 countries: A new database (Working Paper No. 2012/06). Bruegel.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dauvin, M. (2014). Energy prices and the real exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries. International Economics, CEPII Research Center, 137, 52–72.

    Google Scholar 

  • Deaton, A., & Miller, R. (1996). International commodity prices, macroeconomic performance and politics in sub-saharan Africa. Journal of African Economies, 5, 99–191.

    Google Scholar 

  • Di Iorio, F., & Fachin, S. (2018). The Prebish-Singer hypothesis in the post-colonial era: Evidence from panel cointegration. Economics Letters, 166(C), 86–89.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dimpfl, T., Flad, M., & Jung, R. (2017). Price discovery in agricultural commodity markets in the presence of futures speculation. Journal of Commodity Markets, 5, 50–62.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Gregorio, J., & Wolf, H. C. (1994). Terms of trade, productivity, and the real exchange rate (Working Papers No. 4807). National Bureau of Economic Research.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edwards, S. (1986). Commodity export prices and the real exchange rate in developing countries: Coffee in Colombia. In Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, National Bureau of Economic Research (pp. 233–266).

    Google Scholar 

  • Erb, C. B., & Harvey, C. R. (2006). The strategic and tactical value of commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 62(2), 66–97.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fattouh, B., Kilian, L., & Mahadeva, L. (2013). The role of speculation in oil markets: What have we learned so far? The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, 34(3), 7–33.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferraro, D., Rogoff, K., & Rossi, B. (2015). Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 54, 116–141.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fuchs-Schuendeln, N., & Hassan, T.A. (2016). Natural experiments in macroeconomics. In Handbook of macroeconomics. Elsevier.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghoshray, A. (2011). A re–examination of trends in primary commodity prices. Journal of Development Economics, 95, 242–251.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gorton, G., & Rouwenhorst, K. G. (2006). Facts and fantasies about commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 62(2), 47–68.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grilli, E., & Yang, M. C. (1988). Primary commodity prices, manufactured goods prices, and the terms of trade of developing countries: What the long run shows. The World Bank Economic Review, 2, 1–47.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groen, J., & Pesenti, P. (2010). Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments (Working Papers No. 15743). National Bureau of Economic Research.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gruss, B., & Suhaib, K. (2019). Commodity terms of trade: A new database (Working Paper No. 19/21). IMF.

    Google Scholar 

  • Haase, M., Zimmermann, Y. S., & Zimmermann, H. (2016). The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets—A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies. Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, 3(1), 1–15.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Habib, M. M., & Kalamova, M. M. (2007). Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries (Working Paper No. 839). European Central Bank.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hadri, K., Kurozumi, E., & Rao, Y. (2015). Novel panel cointegration tests emending for cross-section dependence with N fixed. Econometrics Journal, 18, 363–411.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hallam, D. (2018). Revisiting Prebisch–Singer: What long–term trends in commodity prices tell us about the future of CDDCs. Background paper to the UNCTAD-FAO Commodities and Development Report 2017.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harvey, D. I., Kellard, N. M., Madsen, J. B., & Wohar, M. E. (2010). The Prebisch—Singer hypothesis: Four centuries of evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, 92, 367–377.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Henderson, B. J., Pearson, N. D., & Wang, L. (2015). New evidence on the financialization of commodity markets. Review of Financial Studies, 28(5), 1285–1311.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurlin, C., & Mignon, V. (2007). Second generation panel unit root tests https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/halshs-00159842.html.

  • Irwin, S., & Sanders, D. (2011). Index funds, financialization, and commodity futures markets. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 33, 1–31.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kellard, N., & Wohar, M. (2006). On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices. Journal of Development Economics, 79, 146–167.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kilian, L., & Murphy, D. P. (2014). The role of inventories and speculative trading in the global market for crude oil. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29(3), 454–478.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim, T.-H., Pfaffenzeller, S., Rayner, T., & Newbold, P. (2003). Testing for linear trend with application to relative primary commodity prices. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 24, 539–552.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koranchelian, T. (2005). The equilibrium real exchange rate in a commodity exporting country: Algerian experience (Working Paper No. WP/05/135). IMF.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. (2003). Minimum LM unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 1082–1089.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leon, J., & Soto, R. (1997). Structural breaks and long–run trends in commodity prices. Journal of International Development, 9, 247–266.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lumsdaine, R., & Papell, D. (1997). Multiple trend breaks and the unit root hypothesis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79, 212–218.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MacDonald, R., & Nagayasu, J. (2000). The long-run relation between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials: A panel study. IMF Staff Papers, 47(1), 116–128.

    Google Scholar 

  • MacDonald, R., & Ricci, L. A. (2005). The real exchange rate and the Balassa-Samuelson effect: The role of the distribution sector. Pacific Economic Review, 10, 29–48.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Main, S., Irwin, S. H., Sanders, D. R., & Smith, A. (2018). Financialization and the returns to commodity investments. Journal of Commodity Markets, 10(C), 22–28.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newbold, P., Pfaffenzeller, S., & Rayner, T. (2005). How well are long-run commodity price series characterised by trend components? Journal of International Development, 17, 479–494.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ostry, J. D. (1994). Government purchases and relative prices in a two-country world. The Economic Record, 70, 149–161.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels (Vol. 435). Cambridge Working Papers in Economics.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfaffenzeller, S., Newbold, P., & Rayner, A. (2007). A short note on updating the Grilli and Yang commodity price index. World Bank Economic Review, 21, 151–163.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prebisch, R. (1950). The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems. New York: United Nations.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ricci, L. A., Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., & Lee, J. (2013). Real exchange rates and fundamentals a cross-country perspective. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(5), 845–865.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose, A. K., Supaat, S., & Braude, J. (2009). Fertility and the real exchange rate. Canadian Journal of Economics, 42, 496–518.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Samuelson, P. (1964). Theoretical problems on trade problems. Review of Economics and Statistics, 46, 145–154.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sapsford, D. (1985). The statistical debate on the net barter terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: A comment and some additional evidence. Economic Journal, 95, 781–788.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schwert, G., & William, (1987). Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 20, 73.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silvennoinen, A., & Thorp, S. (2013). Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 24(C), 42–65.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singer, H. (1950). The distribution of gains between investing and borrowing countries. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 11, 473–485.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singleton, K. (2013). Investor flows and the 2008 boom/bust in oil prices. Management Science, 60, 300–318.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spatafora, N., & Tytell, I. (2009). Commodity terms of trade: The history of booms and busts (Working Paper No. 09205). IMF.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tang, K., & Xiong, W. (2012). Index investment and financialization of commodities. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(6), 54–74.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tashu, M. (2015). Drivers of Peru’s equilibrium real exchange rate; is the nuevo sol a commodity currency? (Working Papers No. 15/26). International Monetary Fund.

    Google Scholar 

  • Westerlund, J., & Edgerton, D. (2008). A simple test for cointegration in dependent panels with structural breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 70(5), 665–704.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yamada, H., & Gawon, Y. (2014). When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices. Journal of International Money and Finance, 42(C), 193–207.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Y.-J., Chevallier, J., & Guesmi, K. (2017). “De-financialization” of commodities? Evidence from stock, crude oil and natural gas markets. Energy Economics, 68(C), 228–239.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 251–270.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jean-François Carpantier .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2021 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Carpantier, JF. (2021). Commodity Prices in Empirical Research. In: Dufrénot, G., Matsuki, T. (eds) Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data. Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, vol 27. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54252-8_8

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics